Nonresidential building is on track to achieve a “breakout year” in 2015, during which spending growth could exceed 20%, according to projections by construction giant Gilbane in its Summer 2015 Construction Economics Report, “Building for the Future.”
Through the first six months of the year, construction spending for residential, nonresidential building, and nonbuilding structures was increasing at the fastest pace since 2004-2005. On that basis, Gilbane expects total construction spending to expand by 10.9% to $1.067 trillion this year (the second-highest growth total ever recorded), and by more than 8% in 2016. Construction starts are expected to be up by 13.1% to 670,595 units this year.
Nonresidential building starts, which hit a 10-year low in 2012, have been increasing at an average of 17% per year. Nonresidential buildings starts since March 2014 posted the best five quarters since the third quarter of 2008. Although growth should continue, expect it to do so at a more moderate rate, says Gilbane, which predicts those starts to increase this year by only 4.5% to 228,785 units. That construction activity, however, has been driving spending, which Gilbane predicts will increase by 20.2% to $396.7 billion this year. “Escalation will climb to levels typical of rapidly growing markets,” Gilbane observes.
But nonres building’s strengths vary markedly by sector:
- Total spending for manufacturing buildings in 2015 will reach $86.4 billion, up nearly 50% from 2014. No market sector has ever before recorded a 50% year-over-year increase, and manufacturing could replace perennial leader Education as nonres building’s biggest contributing sector. Gilbane foresees spending in this sector cooling off a bit next year to a still-strong 9% increase. Gilbane points out that the manufacturing sector, through the first half of 2015, accounted for 50% of total private construction spending, which is expected to increase this year by 14.5% to $781 billion.
- Spending for educational buildings in 2015 will total $85.3 billion, a 7.1% increase from 2014, the sector’s first substantial increase since 2008. After hitting a low in the fourth quarter of 2013 not seen since 2004, educational spending has rebounded steadily. Gilbane forecasts a 6% gain in 2016.
- Total spending for healthcare construction in 2015 should be up 7% to $41.1 billion. Healthcare spending is slowly recovering after descending to an eight-year low in the fourth quarter 2014. Spending is expected to rise by 6% in 2016.
- Spending for commercial/retail buildings—which was nonres’ strongest growth market in 2012 through 2014—is projected to jump by 8.8% to $68.2 billion this year. Gilbane notes that this sector. Commercial retail is expected to realize a gain of 5.4% in 2016.
- Office building spending in 2015 is on pace to grow by 21.2% to $55.8 billion this year, on top of a 21.3% increase in 2014. Office spending will maintain upward momentum in 2016 but at a slower pace, to 8.4%.
In its report, Gilbane discusses spending for residential construction, which it expects to grow this year by 12.9% to $388 billion, and then to taper off to a 0.7% increase in 2016. “In fact, from the fourth quarter of 2013 through March 2015, new housing starts practically stalled and the rate of residential spending declined,” Gilbane states.
Gilbane is skeptical—to say the least—about other forecasts that project housing starts to reach between 1.3 million and 1.5 million units this year, which would be twice to three times historical growth rates.
The Commerce Department’s estimates for July show housing starts rose by 0.2% to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 1.119 million units. Multifamily starts, which over the past few years have fueled housing’s growth, were off 17% to an annualized rate of 413,000 units.
In all construction sectors, the biggest potential constraint to growth continues to be the availability of labor. Gilbane notes that the number of unfilled positions on the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for the construction industry has been over 100,000 for 26 of the 28 months through June 2015, and has been trending up since 2012.
“As work volume begins to increase over the next few years, expect productivity to decline,” Gilbane cautions.
Related Stories
| Sep 24, 2014
Architecture billings see continued strength, led by institutional sector
On the heels of recording its strongest pace of growth since 2007, there continues to be an increasing level of demand for design services signaled in the latest Architecture Billings Index.
| Sep 24, 2014
Frank Gehry's first building in Latin America will host grand opening on Oct. 2
Gehry's design for the Biomuseo, or Museum of Biodiversity, draws inspiration from the site's natural and cultural surroundings, including local Panamaian tin roofs.
| Sep 23, 2014
Third phase of New York’s High Line redevelopment opens
The $35 million Phase 3, known as High Line at the Rail Yards, broke ground September 20, 2012, and officially opened to the public on September 21.
| Sep 23, 2014
Designing with Water: Report analyzes ways coastal cities can cope with flooding
The report contains 12 case studies of cities around the world that have applied advanced flood management techniques.
| Sep 22, 2014
Sound selections: 12 great choices for ceilings and acoustical walls
From metal mesh panels to concealed-suspension ceilings, here's our roundup of the latest acoustical ceiling and wall products.
| Sep 19, 2014
Smithsonian Institution opens LEED Platinum lab facility
The Charles McC. Mathias Laboratory will emit 37% less CO2 than a comparable lab that does not meet LEED-certification standards.
| Sep 17, 2014
Atlanta Braves break ground on mixed-use ballpark development
SunTrust Park will be constructed by American Builders 2017, a joint venture between Brasfield & Gorrie, Mortenson Construction, Barton Malow Company, and New South Construction.
Sponsored | | Sep 17, 2014
The balance between innovation and standardization – How DPR Construction achieves both
How does DPR strike a balance between standardization and innovation? In today’s Digital COM video Blog, Sasha Reed interviews Nathan Wood, Innovator with DPR Construction, to learn more about their successful approach to fueling innovation. SPONSORED CONTENT
| Sep 16, 2014
Ranked: Top hotel sector AEC firms [2014 Giants 300 Report]
Tutor Perini, Gensler, and AECOM top BD+C's rankings of design and construction firms with the most revenue from hospitality sector projects, as reported in the 2014 Giants 300 Report.
| Sep 16, 2014
Shigeru Ban’s design wins Tainan Museum of Fine Arts competition
Pritzker Prize-winning architect Shigeru Ban has won an international competition organized by The Tainan Museum of Art in Taiwan. Ban's design features cascading volumes with an auditorium, classrooms, and exhibition galleries.
