FMI, the largest provider of management consulting and investment banking to the engineering and construction industry, announces the release of the Construction Outlook: Third Quarter 2011 Report.
Overall, in FMI’s latest forecast for construction put in place calls for 2% growth in 2011 and 6% for 2012 to $886.2 billion in total construction. In today’s economy that sounds like ambitious growth, but in constant 2006 dollars, that is only 3% growth for 2012 and a 1% drop in construction for 2011. To put it in perspective, in 2012 we will nearly return to 2003 levels of construction in current dollars.
Despite geo-political upheavals and constant debates about debt levels in the U.S. and Europe, budget brinksmanship in Congress, as well as a rash of natural disasters, construction markets are inching along. U.S. GDP is slow at 1.3%, but positive. Some of the unemployment problem is due to increased productivity in manufacturing and other service businesses, but, so far, there doesn’t seem to be much innovation and investment in new markets and jobs. Both consumers and businesses are rebuilding their savings and confidence in the economy, but that is a slow process with numerous setbacks. It seems that the largest barrier to moving the economy forward is fear that no one has a plan that will work. After the go-go years of high finance and exuberant housing markets, we now have high-risk aversion, and not without good reasons.
In the midst of these extremes, the inchworm economy is struggling along, and it will take some time to revive an industry the size of U.S. construction. There are positive signs to build on, for instance, if businesses with record profits now held in reserve decide that they can make more with their money by investing in new R&D, plants, equipment and personnel, then a new construction boom could follow. On the other hand, as economists like to say, if fear and risk aversion win out, those looking for a second dip of recession could find their wishes come true.
Hard-hit residential markets will start to improve, especially multi-family construction, which is becoming more desirable as banks continue to tighten financing requirements and homeowners are still reeling from the fears of foreclosure. Lodging, office and commercial construction will continue to struggle until more Americans have good jobs. BD+C
Related Stories
Healthcare Facilities | Mar 9, 2020
Mobile wayfinding platform helps patients, visitors navigate convoluted health campuses
Gozio Health uses a robot to roam hospital campuses to capture data and create detailed maps of the building spaces and campus.
AEC Innovators | Mar 5, 2020
These 17 women are changing the face of construction
During this Women in Construction Week, we shine a spotlight on 17 female leaders in design, construction, and real estate to spur an important conversation of diversity, inclusion, and empowerment.
Architects | Mar 4, 2020
Yvonne Farrell and Shelley McNamara receive the 2020 Pritzker Architecture Prize
As architects and educators since the 1970s, Farrell and McNamara create spaces that are at once respectful and new.
Education Facilities | Mar 3, 2020
Carisima Koenig, AIA, joins Perkins Eastman as Associate Higher Education Practice Leader
Perkins Eastman as Associate Higher Education Practice Leader
Architects | Mar 2, 2020
Two ‘firsts’ for Sasaki and LEO A DALY
Following an industry trend, the firms hire chiefs of technology and sustainability, respectively.
Architects | Feb 26, 2020
Seven architects aim to design the “newsstand of the future”
The winning project will be created and presented during Milan Design Week 2020.
Architects | Feb 24, 2020
Design for educational equity
Can architecture not only shape lives, but contribute to a more equitable and just society for marginalized people?
AEC Tech | Feb 22, 2020
Investor interest in the built environment not quite as avid in 2019
Builtworlds’ annual list of venture deals led by workspace providers.
Modular Building | Feb 16, 2020
On the West Coast, prefab gains ground for speedier construction
Gensler has been working with component supplier Clark Pacific on several projects.
AEC Tech | Feb 13, 2020
Exclusive research: Download the final report for BD+C's Giants 300 Technology and Innovation Study
This survey of 130 of the nation's largest architecture, engineering, and construction firms tracks the state of AEC technology adoption and innovation initiatives at the AEC Giants.