FMI, the largest provider of management consulting and investment banking to the engineering and construction industry, announces the release of the Construction Outlook: Third Quarter 2011 Report.
Overall, in FMI’s latest forecast for construction put in place calls for 2% growth in 2011 and 6% for 2012 to $886.2 billion in total construction. In today’s economy that sounds like ambitious growth, but in constant 2006 dollars, that is only 3% growth for 2012 and a 1% drop in construction for 2011. To put it in perspective, in 2012 we will nearly return to 2003 levels of construction in current dollars.
Despite geo-political upheavals and constant debates about debt levels in the U.S. and Europe, budget brinksmanship in Congress, as well as a rash of natural disasters, construction markets are inching along. U.S. GDP is slow at 1.3%, but positive. Some of the unemployment problem is due to increased productivity in manufacturing and other service businesses, but, so far, there doesn’t seem to be much innovation and investment in new markets and jobs. Both consumers and businesses are rebuilding their savings and confidence in the economy, but that is a slow process with numerous setbacks. It seems that the largest barrier to moving the economy forward is fear that no one has a plan that will work. After the go-go years of high finance and exuberant housing markets, we now have high-risk aversion, and not without good reasons.
In the midst of these extremes, the inchworm economy is struggling along, and it will take some time to revive an industry the size of U.S. construction. There are positive signs to build on, for instance, if businesses with record profits now held in reserve decide that they can make more with their money by investing in new R&D, plants, equipment and personnel, then a new construction boom could follow. On the other hand, as economists like to say, if fear and risk aversion win out, those looking for a second dip of recession could find their wishes come true.
Hard-hit residential markets will start to improve, especially multi-family construction, which is becoming more desirable as banks continue to tighten financing requirements and homeowners are still reeling from the fears of foreclosure. Lodging, office and commercial construction will continue to struggle until more Americans have good jobs. BD+C
Related Stories
Coronavirus | Oct 8, 2020
The Weekly show: Statue of Liberty Museum, emotional learning in K-12, LA's climate change vulnerability
The October 8 episode of BD+C's "The Weekly" is available for viewing on demand.
Architects | Oct 8, 2020
Gensler’s annual report chronicles the firm’s ‘transformation’
The firm positions itself as a leading voice for how building design plays a central role in meeting society’s evolving demands.
Smart Buildings | Oct 1, 2020
Smart buildings stand on good data
The coming disruption of owning and operating a building and how to stay ahead through BIM.
Architects | Oct 1, 2020
BIG imagines how we could live on the moon
The architecture firm has partnered with ICON on the project.
Architects | Sep 30, 2020
Sir David Adjaye OBE to receive 2021 Royal Gold Medal for Architecture
His practice, Adjaye Associates, was founded in 2000 and today has studios in Accra, London and New York, with projects across the world.
Coronavirus | Sep 28, 2020
Evaluating and investing resources to navigate past the COVID-19 pandemic
As AEC firm leaders consider worst-case scenarios and explore possible solutions to surmount them, they learn to become nimble, quick, and ready to pivot as circumstances demand.
Coronavirus | Sep 24, 2020
The Weekly show: Building optimization tech, the future of smart cities, and storm shelter design
The September 24 episode of BD+C's "The Weekly" is available for viewing on demand.
Healthcare Facilities | Sep 10, 2020
Easing the oncology journey: The role of urgent care
Oncology patients are better served when they’re connected to the right staff.
Airports | Sep 10, 2020
The Weekly show: Curtis Fentress, FAIA, on airport design, and how P3s are keeping university projects alive
The September 10 episode of BD+C's "The Weekly" is available for viewing on demand.
Architects | Sep 8, 2020
The New City project by Eric Owen Moss Architects receives AIA’s Twenty-five Year Award
AIA’s Twenty-five Year Award is conferred on a building that has set a precedent for the last 25-35 years and continues to set standards of excellence for its architectural design and significance.