Manufacturing and lodging continue to lead the charge in the construction sector, which is expected to grow by 6% in 2015, according to the latest forecasts by FMI, the investment consulting and banking firm. That’s a percentage point higher than the growth FMI projected three months ago.
FMI also expects construction activity to increase by 7% in 2016, and reach $1.09 trillion, the highest level since 2008. Nonresidential construction in place should hit $423.96 billion this year, representing a 9% gain, and keep growing by 7% to $452.25 billion in 2016. For the most part, the biggest sectors of nonresidential construction are expected to thrive through next year.
Here are some of the report’s highlights:
• Manufacturing has been the “rock star” of nonresidential building, says FMI. Construction activity in this sector should be up 18% to $68.2 billion this year. “Manufacturing capacity utilization rates [were] at 77.7% of capacity in July 2015, which is near the historical average.” However, FMI expects this sector to slow next year, when construction growth is projected to increase by just 5% to $71.9 billion. “One concern, like much of the construction industry, is the lack of trained personnel needed to keep up with growing backlogs.”
• Lodging construction continues to be strong. FMI forecasts 15% growth this year to $18.5 billion, and 12% in 2016 to $20.8 billion. To bolster its predictions, FMI quotes a May 2015 report from Lodging Econometrics that estimates 3,885 projects and 488,230 rooms currently under construction. “The greatest amount of growth will continue to be upscale properties and event locations,” FMI states;
• Office construction has slowed a bit from its gains in 2014. But FMI still expects office construction to be up by 14% to $52.6 billion this year, and by 7% to $56.3 billion in 2016. The National Association of Realtors predicts that office vacancies would drop below 15% by year’s end. And JLI noted recently that more than 40% of all office leases 20,000 sf or larger are exhibiting growth;
• Healthcare construction is on a path to return to “historical growth rates” over the next four years. That would mean a 5% increase to $40.4 billion this year, and a 10% gain to $41.9 billion next year. FMI points out, though, that “the changing nature of health care and insurance” continues to make investors nervous. Renovation and expansion will account for the lion’s share of construction projects going forward;
• The Educational sector “is growing again,” albeit modestly, says FMI. Construction in place should increase by 3% to $82.3 billion this year, and then bump up by 10% to $85.8 billion in 2016. FMI notes that K-12 construction is getting less funding from states, even as enrollment is expected to expand by 2.5 million over the next four years.
• Commercial construction—which is essentially the retail and food segments—should be up 8% to $67.7 billion in 2015, and grow by another 10% to $74.4 billion, next year. FMI quotes Commerce Department estimates that food services and drinking places were up in July by 9% over the same month in 2014, and non-store retail rose by 5.2%.
• Amusements and recreation-related construction was up 9% last year, and is expected to increase to 11% to $18.5 billion in 2015, and by 8% next year, when it should hit nearly $20 billion. FMI anticipates ongoing municipal demand for sports venues, which are seen as “job creators.”
• The slowdown of multifamily construction may have to wait another year. FMI expects construction of buildings with five or more residential units to increase by 11% in 2015, and by 12% next year to $63.1 billion.
Related Stories
Giants 400 | Sep 7, 2022
Top 110 Industrial Sector Contractors + CM Firms for 2022
Clayco, Arco Construction, Ryan Companies, and STO Building Group top the ranking of the nation's largest industrial facility sector contractors and construction management (CM) firms for 2022, as reported in Building Design+Construction's 2022 Giants 400 Report.
| Sep 7, 2022
Use of GBCI building performance tools rapidly expanding
More than seven billion square feet of project space is now being tracked using Green Business Certification Inc.’s (GBCI’s) Arc performance platform.
| Sep 7, 2022
K-8 school will help students learn by conducting expeditions in their own communities
In August, SHP, an architecture, design, and engineering firm, broke ground on the new Peck Expeditionary Learning School in Greensboro, N.C. Guilford County Schools, one of the country’s 50 largest school districts, tapped SHP based on its track record of educational design.
| Sep 6, 2022
Herbert V. Kohler, Jr. (1939-2022) An incomparable spirit
Dynamic leader and Kohler Co. Executive Chairman Herbert Vollrath Kohler, Jr. passed away on September 3, 2022, in Kohler, Wisconsin.
| Sep 6, 2022
Demand for flexible workspace reaches all-time high
Demand for flexible workspace including coworking options has never been higher, according to a survey from Yardi Kube, a space management software provider that is part of Yardi Systems.
| Sep 2, 2022
Converting office buildings to apartments is cheaper, greener than building new
Converting office buildings to apartments is cheaper and greener than tearing down old office properties and building new residential buildings.
| Sep 2, 2022
New UMass Medical School building enables expanded medical class sizes, research labs
A new nine-story, 350,000 sf biomedical research and education facility under construction at the University of Massachusetts Chan Medical School in Worcester, Mass., will accommodate larger class sizes and extensive lab space.
Giants 400 | Sep 1, 2022
Top 100 K-12 School Contractors and CM Firms for 2022
Gilbane, Core Construction, Skanska, and Balfour Beatty head the ranking of the nation's largest K-12 school sector contractors and construction management (CM) firms for 2022, as reported in Building Design+Construction's 2022 Giants 400 Report.
| Sep 1, 2022
ABC: Nonresidential Construction Spending Increases by a Modest 0.8% in July
National nonresidential construction spending increased 0.8% in July, according to an Associated Builders and Contractors analysis of data published today by the U.S. Census Bureau.
| Sep 1, 2022
The University of Iowa opens the new Stanley Museum of Art, a public museum for both discovering and teaching art
The University of Iowa recently completed its new Stanley Museum of Art, a public teaching museum designed by BNIM.