Manufacturing and lodging continue to lead the charge in the construction sector, which is expected to grow by 6% in 2015, according to the latest forecasts by FMI, the investment consulting and banking firm. That’s a percentage point higher than the growth FMI projected three months ago.
FMI also expects construction activity to increase by 7% in 2016, and reach $1.09 trillion, the highest level since 2008. Nonresidential construction in place should hit $423.96 billion this year, representing a 9% gain, and keep growing by 7% to $452.25 billion in 2016. For the most part, the biggest sectors of nonresidential construction are expected to thrive through next year.
Here are some of the report’s highlights:
• Manufacturing has been the “rock star” of nonresidential building, says FMI. Construction activity in this sector should be up 18% to $68.2 billion this year. “Manufacturing capacity utilization rates [were] at 77.7% of capacity in July 2015, which is near the historical average.” However, FMI expects this sector to slow next year, when construction growth is projected to increase by just 5% to $71.9 billion. “One concern, like much of the construction industry, is the lack of trained personnel needed to keep up with growing backlogs.”
• Lodging construction continues to be strong. FMI forecasts 15% growth this year to $18.5 billion, and 12% in 2016 to $20.8 billion. To bolster its predictions, FMI quotes a May 2015 report from Lodging Econometrics that estimates 3,885 projects and 488,230 rooms currently under construction. “The greatest amount of growth will continue to be upscale properties and event locations,” FMI states;
• Office construction has slowed a bit from its gains in 2014. But FMI still expects office construction to be up by 14% to $52.6 billion this year, and by 7% to $56.3 billion in 2016. The National Association of Realtors predicts that office vacancies would drop below 15% by year’s end. And JLI noted recently that more than 40% of all office leases 20,000 sf or larger are exhibiting growth;
• Healthcare construction is on a path to return to “historical growth rates” over the next four years. That would mean a 5% increase to $40.4 billion this year, and a 10% gain to $41.9 billion next year. FMI points out, though, that “the changing nature of health care and insurance” continues to make investors nervous. Renovation and expansion will account for the lion’s share of construction projects going forward;
• The Educational sector “is growing again,” albeit modestly, says FMI. Construction in place should increase by 3% to $82.3 billion this year, and then bump up by 10% to $85.8 billion in 2016. FMI notes that K-12 construction is getting less funding from states, even as enrollment is expected to expand by 2.5 million over the next four years.
• Commercial construction—which is essentially the retail and food segments—should be up 8% to $67.7 billion in 2015, and grow by another 10% to $74.4 billion, next year. FMI quotes Commerce Department estimates that food services and drinking places were up in July by 9% over the same month in 2014, and non-store retail rose by 5.2%.
• Amusements and recreation-related construction was up 9% last year, and is expected to increase to 11% to $18.5 billion in 2015, and by 8% next year, when it should hit nearly $20 billion. FMI anticipates ongoing municipal demand for sports venues, which are seen as “job creators.”
• The slowdown of multifamily construction may have to wait another year. FMI expects construction of buildings with five or more residential units to increase by 11% in 2015, and by 12% next year to $63.1 billion.
Related Stories
| Sep 20, 2022
New Long Beach office building reflects Mid-Century Modern garden-style motif
The new Long Beach, Calif., headquarters of Laserfiche, a provider of intelligent content management and business process automation software, was built on a brownfield parcel previously considered undevelopable.
| Sep 19, 2022
New York City construction site inspections, enforcement found ‘inadequate’
A new report by the New York State Comptroller found that New York City construction site inspections and regulation enforcement need improvement.
| Sep 16, 2022
Fairfax County, Va., considers impactful code change to reduce flood risk
Fairfax County, Va., in the Washington, D.C., metro region is considering a major code change to reduce the risk from floods.
Multifamily Housing | Sep 15, 2022
Heat Pumps in Multifamily Projects
RMI's Lacey Tan gives the basics of heat pumps and how they can reduce energy costs and carbon emissions in apartment projects.
| Sep 15, 2022
Monthly construction input prices dip in August
Construction input prices decreased 1.4% in August compared to the previous month, according to an Associated Builders and Contractors analysis of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Producer Price Index data released today.
| Sep 15, 2022
First LEED Platinum, net zero and net zero water synagogue opens
Kol Emeth Center, the world’s first LEED Platinum, net zero and net zero water synagogue, opened recently in Palo Alto, Calif.
| Sep 14, 2022
Fires on Amazon warehouse roofs seemingly caused by faulty PV installations
Amazon has made installing solar panels on rooftops a key part of its ESG strategy, but a series of events last year show how challenging greening up major facilities can be.
| Sep 14, 2022
Indian tribe’s new educational campus supports culturally appropriate education
The Kenaitze Indian Tribe recently opened the Kahtnuht’ana Duhdeldiht Campus (Kenai River People’s Learning Place), a new education center in Kenai, Alaska.
| Sep 13, 2022
California building codes now allow high-rise mass-timber buildings
California recently enacted new building codes that allow for high-rise mass-timber buildings to be constructed in the state.
| Sep 13, 2022
Orange County opens civic center complex—one of California’s largest P3 projects
Orange County’s recently opened County Administration North (CAN) building caps an urban center development that constitutes one of California’s largest ever P3 projects.