Manufacturing and lodging continue to lead the charge in the construction sector, which is expected to grow by 6% in 2015, according to the latest forecasts by FMI, the investment consulting and banking firm. That’s a percentage point higher than the growth FMI projected three months ago.
FMI also expects construction activity to increase by 7% in 2016, and reach $1.09 trillion, the highest level since 2008. Nonresidential construction in place should hit $423.96 billion this year, representing a 9% gain, and keep growing by 7% to $452.25 billion in 2016. For the most part, the biggest sectors of nonresidential construction are expected to thrive through next year.
Here are some of the report’s highlights:
• Manufacturing has been the “rock star” of nonresidential building, says FMI. Construction activity in this sector should be up 18% to $68.2 billion this year. “Manufacturing capacity utilization rates [were] at 77.7% of capacity in July 2015, which is near the historical average.” However, FMI expects this sector to slow next year, when construction growth is projected to increase by just 5% to $71.9 billion. “One concern, like much of the construction industry, is the lack of trained personnel needed to keep up with growing backlogs.”
• Lodging construction continues to be strong. FMI forecasts 15% growth this year to $18.5 billion, and 12% in 2016 to $20.8 billion. To bolster its predictions, FMI quotes a May 2015 report from Lodging Econometrics that estimates 3,885 projects and 488,230 rooms currently under construction. “The greatest amount of growth will continue to be upscale properties and event locations,” FMI states;
• Office construction has slowed a bit from its gains in 2014. But FMI still expects office construction to be up by 14% to $52.6 billion this year, and by 7% to $56.3 billion in 2016. The National Association of Realtors predicts that office vacancies would drop below 15% by year’s end. And JLI noted recently that more than 40% of all office leases 20,000 sf or larger are exhibiting growth;
• Healthcare construction is on a path to return to “historical growth rates” over the next four years. That would mean a 5% increase to $40.4 billion this year, and a 10% gain to $41.9 billion next year. FMI points out, though, that “the changing nature of health care and insurance” continues to make investors nervous. Renovation and expansion will account for the lion’s share of construction projects going forward;
• The Educational sector “is growing again,” albeit modestly, says FMI. Construction in place should increase by 3% to $82.3 billion this year, and then bump up by 10% to $85.8 billion in 2016. FMI notes that K-12 construction is getting less funding from states, even as enrollment is expected to expand by 2.5 million over the next four years.
• Commercial construction—which is essentially the retail and food segments—should be up 8% to $67.7 billion in 2015, and grow by another 10% to $74.4 billion, next year. FMI quotes Commerce Department estimates that food services and drinking places were up in July by 9% over the same month in 2014, and non-store retail rose by 5.2%.
• Amusements and recreation-related construction was up 9% last year, and is expected to increase to 11% to $18.5 billion in 2015, and by 8% next year, when it should hit nearly $20 billion. FMI anticipates ongoing municipal demand for sports venues, which are seen as “job creators.”
• The slowdown of multifamily construction may have to wait another year. FMI expects construction of buildings with five or more residential units to increase by 11% in 2015, and by 12% next year to $63.1 billion.
Related Stories
| Mar 29, 2012
Construction completed on Las Vegas’ newest performing arts center
The Smith Center will be the first major multi-purpose performance center in the U.S. to earn Silver LEED certification.
| Mar 29, 2012
Apartments provide permanent housing for California homeless
Gonzalez Goodale Architects designed complex to embrace community and engender sense of pride among residents.
| Mar 28, 2012
40 Under 40, the Class of 2012
Chosen from 223 applicants, these 40 young AEC professionals represent the Class of 2012 in Building Design+Construction’s “40 UNDER 40” competition.
| Mar 28, 2012
Milestone reached for LEED-certified buildings?
Total number of major global green buildings now stands at 12,000.
| Mar 28, 2012
Holden Cancer Center opens at University of Iowa Hospitals and Clinics
The new cancer clinic provides a significant increase in patient space from the prior facility, which was located in an adjacent building.
| Mar 28, 2012
Meridian Design Build Begins work on 38 acre redevelopment project
The project includes construction of a new 150,585-sf cross dock facility that will include full service truck maintenance and repair bays, a truck wash, and approximately 20,000-sf of corporate office space.
| Mar 28, 2012
Tsoi/Kobis & Associates developing master plan for UT Southwestern Medical Center
Firm will spearhead strategies for transforming existing in-patient hospital into state-of-the-art ambulatory care facility.
| Mar 28, 2012
Ideas and input drive stories in online community, noraXchange
Community designed to help building and design professionals address challenges they face in their jobs.
| Mar 27, 2012
Bank of America Plaza becomes Atlanta's priciest repo
Repo will help reset market prices for real estate, and the eventual new owner will likely set rental rates at a new or near the bottom and improve the facilities to lure tenants.
| Mar 27, 2012
Skanska hires aviation construction expert Bob Postma
Postma will manage Skanska’s nationwide in-house team of airport construction experts who lead the industry in building and renovating airport facilities and their essential features.