Manufacturing and lodging continue to lead the charge in the construction sector, which is expected to grow by 6% in 2015, according to the latest forecasts by FMI, the investment consulting and banking firm. That’s a percentage point higher than the growth FMI projected three months ago.
FMI also expects construction activity to increase by 7% in 2016, and reach $1.09 trillion, the highest level since 2008. Nonresidential construction in place should hit $423.96 billion this year, representing a 9% gain, and keep growing by 7% to $452.25 billion in 2016. For the most part, the biggest sectors of nonresidential construction are expected to thrive through next year.
Here are some of the report’s highlights:
• Manufacturing has been the “rock star” of nonresidential building, says FMI. Construction activity in this sector should be up 18% to $68.2 billion this year. “Manufacturing capacity utilization rates [were] at 77.7% of capacity in July 2015, which is near the historical average.” However, FMI expects this sector to slow next year, when construction growth is projected to increase by just 5% to $71.9 billion. “One concern, like much of the construction industry, is the lack of trained personnel needed to keep up with growing backlogs.”
• Lodging construction continues to be strong. FMI forecasts 15% growth this year to $18.5 billion, and 12% in 2016 to $20.8 billion. To bolster its predictions, FMI quotes a May 2015 report from Lodging Econometrics that estimates 3,885 projects and 488,230 rooms currently under construction. “The greatest amount of growth will continue to be upscale properties and event locations,” FMI states;
• Office construction has slowed a bit from its gains in 2014. But FMI still expects office construction to be up by 14% to $52.6 billion this year, and by 7% to $56.3 billion in 2016. The National Association of Realtors predicts that office vacancies would drop below 15% by year’s end. And JLI noted recently that more than 40% of all office leases 20,000 sf or larger are exhibiting growth;
• Healthcare construction is on a path to return to “historical growth rates” over the next four years. That would mean a 5% increase to $40.4 billion this year, and a 10% gain to $41.9 billion next year. FMI points out, though, that “the changing nature of health care and insurance” continues to make investors nervous. Renovation and expansion will account for the lion’s share of construction projects going forward;
• The Educational sector “is growing again,” albeit modestly, says FMI. Construction in place should increase by 3% to $82.3 billion this year, and then bump up by 10% to $85.8 billion in 2016. FMI notes that K-12 construction is getting less funding from states, even as enrollment is expected to expand by 2.5 million over the next four years.
• Commercial construction—which is essentially the retail and food segments—should be up 8% to $67.7 billion in 2015, and grow by another 10% to $74.4 billion, next year. FMI quotes Commerce Department estimates that food services and drinking places were up in July by 9% over the same month in 2014, and non-store retail rose by 5.2%.
• Amusements and recreation-related construction was up 9% last year, and is expected to increase to 11% to $18.5 billion in 2015, and by 8% next year, when it should hit nearly $20 billion. FMI anticipates ongoing municipal demand for sports venues, which are seen as “job creators.”
• The slowdown of multifamily construction may have to wait another year. FMI expects construction of buildings with five or more residential units to increase by 11% in 2015, and by 12% next year to $63.1 billion.
Related Stories
Giants 400 | Nov 6, 2023
Top 110 Cultural Facility Architecture Firms for 2023
Populous, Gensler, HGA, DLR Group, and Quinn Evans top BD+C's ranking of the nation's largest cultural facilities sector architecture and architecture engineering (AE) firms for 2023, as reported in the 2023 Giants 400 Report. Note: This ranking includes revenue from all cultural building sectors, including concert venues, art galleries, museums, performing arts centers, and public libraries.
Giants 400 | Nov 6, 2023
Top 170 Government Building Architecture Firms for 2023
Page Southerland Page, Gensler, Stantec, HOK, and Skidmore, Owings & Merrill top BD+C's ranking of the nation's largest government building sector architecture and architecture engineering (AE) firms for 2023, as reported in the 2023 Giants 400 Report. Note: This ranking includes revenue from all government building sectors, including federal, state, local, military, and Veterans Affairs (VA) buildings.
Designers | Nov 6, 2023
DLR Group opens office in Nashville, Tenn.
DLR Group is expanding its presence in the Southeast with the opening of an office in downtown Nashville, Tenn.—a collaborative effort led by DLR Group Principals Matthew Gulsvig, AIA, LEED AP, and Randall Coy.
Healthcare Facilities | Nov 3, 2023
The University of Chicago Medicine is building its city’s first freestanding cancer center with inpatient and outpatient services
The University of Chicago Medicine (UChicago Medicine) is building Chicago’s first freestanding cancer center with inpatient and outpatient services. Aiming to bridge longstanding health disparities on Chicago’s South Side, the $815 million project will consolidate care and about 200 team members currently spread across at least five buildings. The new facility, which broke ground in September, is expected to open to patients in spring 2027.
Office Buildings | Nov 2, 2023
Amazon’s second headquarters completes its first buildings: a pair of 22-story towers
Amazon has completed construction of the first two buildings of its second headquarters, located in Arlington, Va. The all-electric structures, featuring low carbon concrete and mass timber, help further the company’s commitment to achieving net zero carbon emissions by 2040 and 100% renewable energy consumption by 2030. Designed by ZGF Architects, the two 22-story buildings are on track to become the largest LEED v4 Platinum buildings in the U.S.
Sustainability | Nov 1, 2023
Researchers create building air leakage detection system using a camera in real time
Researchers at the U.S. Department of Energy’s Oak Ridge National Laboratory have developed a system that uses a camera to detect air leakage from buildings in real time.
Adaptive Reuse | Nov 1, 2023
Biden Administration reveals plan to spur more office-to-residential conversions
The Biden Administration recently announced plans to encourage more office buildings to be converted to residential use. The plan includes using federal money to lend to developers for conversion projects and selling government property that is suitable for conversions.
Sustainability | Nov 1, 2023
Tool identifies financial incentives for decarbonizing heavy industry, transportation projects
Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI) has released a tool to identify financial incentives to help developers, industrial companies, and investors find financial incentives for heavy industry and transport projects.
Contractors | Nov 1, 2023
Nonresidential construction spending increases for the 16th straight month, in September 2023
National nonresidential construction spending increased 0.3% in September, according to an Associated Builders and Contractors analysis of data published today by the U.S. Census Bureau. On a seasonally adjusted annualized basis, nonresidential spending totaled $1.1 trillion.
Sponsored | MFPRO+ Course | Oct 30, 2023
For the Multifamily Sector, Product Innovations Boost Design and Construction Success
This course covers emerging trends in exterior design and products/systems selection in the low- and mid-rise market-rate and luxury multifamily rental market. Topics include facade design, cladding material trends, fenestration trends/innovations, indoor/outdoor connection, and rooftop spaces.