Manufacturing and lodging continue to lead the charge in the construction sector, which is expected to grow by 6% in 2015, according to the latest forecasts by FMI, the investment consulting and banking firm. That’s a percentage point higher than the growth FMI projected three months ago.
FMI also expects construction activity to increase by 7% in 2016, and reach $1.09 trillion, the highest level since 2008. Nonresidential construction in place should hit $423.96 billion this year, representing a 9% gain, and keep growing by 7% to $452.25 billion in 2016. For the most part, the biggest sectors of nonresidential construction are expected to thrive through next year.
Here are some of the report’s highlights:
• Manufacturing has been the “rock star” of nonresidential building, says FMI. Construction activity in this sector should be up 18% to $68.2 billion this year. “Manufacturing capacity utilization rates [were] at 77.7% of capacity in July 2015, which is near the historical average.” However, FMI expects this sector to slow next year, when construction growth is projected to increase by just 5% to $71.9 billion. “One concern, like much of the construction industry, is the lack of trained personnel needed to keep up with growing backlogs.”
• Lodging construction continues to be strong. FMI forecasts 15% growth this year to $18.5 billion, and 12% in 2016 to $20.8 billion. To bolster its predictions, FMI quotes a May 2015 report from Lodging Econometrics that estimates 3,885 projects and 488,230 rooms currently under construction. “The greatest amount of growth will continue to be upscale properties and event locations,” FMI states;
• Office construction has slowed a bit from its gains in 2014. But FMI still expects office construction to be up by 14% to $52.6 billion this year, and by 7% to $56.3 billion in 2016. The National Association of Realtors predicts that office vacancies would drop below 15% by year’s end. And JLI noted recently that more than 40% of all office leases 20,000 sf or larger are exhibiting growth;
• Healthcare construction is on a path to return to “historical growth rates” over the next four years. That would mean a 5% increase to $40.4 billion this year, and a 10% gain to $41.9 billion next year. FMI points out, though, that “the changing nature of health care and insurance” continues to make investors nervous. Renovation and expansion will account for the lion’s share of construction projects going forward;
• The Educational sector “is growing again,” albeit modestly, says FMI. Construction in place should increase by 3% to $82.3 billion this year, and then bump up by 10% to $85.8 billion in 2016. FMI notes that K-12 construction is getting less funding from states, even as enrollment is expected to expand by 2.5 million over the next four years.
• Commercial construction—which is essentially the retail and food segments—should be up 8% to $67.7 billion in 2015, and grow by another 10% to $74.4 billion, next year. FMI quotes Commerce Department estimates that food services and drinking places were up in July by 9% over the same month in 2014, and non-store retail rose by 5.2%.
• Amusements and recreation-related construction was up 9% last year, and is expected to increase to 11% to $18.5 billion in 2015, and by 8% next year, when it should hit nearly $20 billion. FMI anticipates ongoing municipal demand for sports venues, which are seen as “job creators.”
• The slowdown of multifamily construction may have to wait another year. FMI expects construction of buildings with five or more residential units to increase by 11% in 2015, and by 12% next year to $63.1 billion.
Related Stories
Market Data | Nov 27, 2023
Number of employees returning to the office varies significantly by city
While the return-to-the-office trend is felt across the country, the percentage of employees moving back to their offices varies significantly according to geography, according to Eptura’s Q3 Workplace Index.
Resiliency | Nov 27, 2023
All levels of government need to act to cope with climate-driven flooding and sea level rise
The latest National Climate Assessment highlights the need for local, state, and federal governments to adopt policies to mitigate the effects of climate-driven flooding and sea level rise, according to a policy expert with the National Resources Defense Council.
Contractors | Nov 27, 2023
A Minnesota GC offers workers Wellness Pods as a mental health option
A maternal need sparked this idea for Gardner Builders.
Cultural Facilities | Nov 21, 2023
Arizona’s Water Education Center will teach visitors about water conservation and reuse strategies
Phoenix-based architecture firm Jones Studio will design the Water Education Center for Central Arizona Project (CAP)—a 336-mile aqueduct system that delivers Colorado River water to almost 6 million people, more than 80% of the state’s population. The Center will allow the public to explore CAP’s history, operations, and impact on Arizona.
MFPRO+ News | Nov 21, 2023
California building electrification laws could prompt more evictions and rent increases
California laws requiring apartment owners to ditch appliances that use fossil fuels could prompt more evictions and rent increases in the state, according to a report from the nonprofit Strategic Actions for a Just Economy. The law could spur more evictions if landlords undertake major renovations to comply with the electrification rule.
Codes and Standards | Nov 21, 2023
Austin becomes largest U.S. city to waive minimum parking requirements
Austin, Texas recently became the largest city in the United States to stop requiring new developments to set a minimum amount of parking. The Austin City Council voted 8-2 earlier this month to eliminate parking requirements in an effort to fight climate change and spur more housing construction as Texas’s capitol grapples with a housing affordability crisis.
MFPRO+ News | Nov 21, 2023
Underused strip malls offer great potential for conversions to residential use
Replacing moribund strip malls with multifamily housing could make a notable dent in the housing shortage and revitalize under-used properties across the country, according to a report from housing nonprofit Enterprise Community Partners.
Giants 400 | Nov 16, 2023
Top 80 Science + Technology Facility Construction Firms for 2023
DPR Construction, Austin Industries, Whiting-Turner, and Gilbane top BD+C's ranking of the nation's largest science and technology (S+T) facility general contractors and construction management (CM) firms for 2023, as reported in Building Design+Construction's 2023 Giants 400 Report. Note: This ranking factors revenue from all science and technology (S+T) buildings work, including laboratories, research buildings, technology/innovation buildings, pharmaceutical production facilities, and semiconductor production facilities.
Retail Centers | Nov 15, 2023
Should retail developers avoid high crime areas?
For retailers resolute to operating in high crime areas, design elements exist to mitigate losses and potentially deter criminal behavior.
Contractors | Nov 15, 2023
Clune Construction expands Southwest reach with launch of Phoenix office
Clune Construction (Clune) is pleased to announce its newest location in Phoenix, marking another milestone in their national growth. The official move comes after several years of sustained success in the Phoenix region.