Manufacturing and lodging continue to lead the charge in the construction sector, which is expected to grow by 6% in 2015, according to the latest forecasts by FMI, the investment consulting and banking firm. That’s a percentage point higher than the growth FMI projected three months ago.
FMI also expects construction activity to increase by 7% in 2016, and reach $1.09 trillion, the highest level since 2008. Nonresidential construction in place should hit $423.96 billion this year, representing a 9% gain, and keep growing by 7% to $452.25 billion in 2016. For the most part, the biggest sectors of nonresidential construction are expected to thrive through next year.
Here are some of the report’s highlights:
• Manufacturing has been the “rock star” of nonresidential building, says FMI. Construction activity in this sector should be up 18% to $68.2 billion this year. “Manufacturing capacity utilization rates [were] at 77.7% of capacity in July 2015, which is near the historical average.” However, FMI expects this sector to slow next year, when construction growth is projected to increase by just 5% to $71.9 billion. “One concern, like much of the construction industry, is the lack of trained personnel needed to keep up with growing backlogs.”
• Lodging construction continues to be strong. FMI forecasts 15% growth this year to $18.5 billion, and 12% in 2016 to $20.8 billion. To bolster its predictions, FMI quotes a May 2015 report from Lodging Econometrics that estimates 3,885 projects and 488,230 rooms currently under construction. “The greatest amount of growth will continue to be upscale properties and event locations,” FMI states;
• Office construction has slowed a bit from its gains in 2014. But FMI still expects office construction to be up by 14% to $52.6 billion this year, and by 7% to $56.3 billion in 2016. The National Association of Realtors predicts that office vacancies would drop below 15% by year’s end. And JLI noted recently that more than 40% of all office leases 20,000 sf or larger are exhibiting growth;
• Healthcare construction is on a path to return to “historical growth rates” over the next four years. That would mean a 5% increase to $40.4 billion this year, and a 10% gain to $41.9 billion next year. FMI points out, though, that “the changing nature of health care and insurance” continues to make investors nervous. Renovation and expansion will account for the lion’s share of construction projects going forward;
• The Educational sector “is growing again,” albeit modestly, says FMI. Construction in place should increase by 3% to $82.3 billion this year, and then bump up by 10% to $85.8 billion in 2016. FMI notes that K-12 construction is getting less funding from states, even as enrollment is expected to expand by 2.5 million over the next four years.
• Commercial construction—which is essentially the retail and food segments—should be up 8% to $67.7 billion in 2015, and grow by another 10% to $74.4 billion, next year. FMI quotes Commerce Department estimates that food services and drinking places were up in July by 9% over the same month in 2014, and non-store retail rose by 5.2%.
• Amusements and recreation-related construction was up 9% last year, and is expected to increase to 11% to $18.5 billion in 2015, and by 8% next year, when it should hit nearly $20 billion. FMI anticipates ongoing municipal demand for sports venues, which are seen as “job creators.”
• The slowdown of multifamily construction may have to wait another year. FMI expects construction of buildings with five or more residential units to increase by 11% in 2015, and by 12% next year to $63.1 billion.
Related Stories
| Apr 16, 2012
Altoon + Porter Architects renamed Altoon Partners
The global practice, with offices in Los Angeles, Amsterdam, and Shanghai, specializes in retail, residential and mixed-use developments.
| Apr 16, 2012
Drake joins EYP as science and technology project executive
Drake’s more than 30 years of diversified design and project delivery experience spans a broad range of complex building types.
| Apr 16, 2012
$80 million in export financing for solar project in India
The project, “Rajasthan Sun Technique Energy Private Limited,” is a subsidiary of Reliance Power and is being co-financed by the Asian Development Bank and FMO, the Dutch development bank.
| Apr 13, 2012
Arcadis merges with Davis Langon & Seah
Merger will help company expand business in Asia.
| Apr 13, 2012
Goettsch Partners designs new music building for Northwestern
The showcase facility is the recital hall, an intimate, two-level space with undulating walls of wood that provide optimal acoustics and lead to the stage, as well as a 50-foot-high wall of cable-supported, double-skin glass
| Apr 13, 2012
Best Commercial Modular Buildings Recognized
Judges scored building entries on a number of criteria including architectural excellence, technical innovation, cost effectiveness, energy efficiency, and calendar days to complete, while marketing pieces were judged on strategy, implementation, and quantifiable results. Read More
| Apr 12, 2012
Solar PV carport, electrical charging stations unveiled in California
Project contractor Oltman Construction noted that the carport provides shaded area for 940 car stalls and generates 2 MW DC of electric power.
| Apr 11, 2012
Shawmut appoints Tripp as business development director
Tripp joined Shawmut in 1998 and previously held the positions of assistant superintendent, superintendent, and national construction manager.
| Apr 11, 2012
Corgan & SOM awarded contract to design SSA National Support Center
The new SSA campus is expected to meet all Federal energy and water conservation goals while achieving LEED Gold Certification from the United States Green Building Council.
