Manufacturing and lodging continue to lead the charge in the construction sector, which is expected to grow by 6% in 2015, according to the latest forecasts by FMI, the investment consulting and banking firm. That’s a percentage point higher than the growth FMI projected three months ago.
FMI also expects construction activity to increase by 7% in 2016, and reach $1.09 trillion, the highest level since 2008. Nonresidential construction in place should hit $423.96 billion this year, representing a 9% gain, and keep growing by 7% to $452.25 billion in 2016. For the most part, the biggest sectors of nonresidential construction are expected to thrive through next year.
Here are some of the report’s highlights:
• Manufacturing has been the “rock star” of nonresidential building, says FMI. Construction activity in this sector should be up 18% to $68.2 billion this year. “Manufacturing capacity utilization rates [were] at 77.7% of capacity in July 2015, which is near the historical average.” However, FMI expects this sector to slow next year, when construction growth is projected to increase by just 5% to $71.9 billion. “One concern, like much of the construction industry, is the lack of trained personnel needed to keep up with growing backlogs.”
• Lodging construction continues to be strong. FMI forecasts 15% growth this year to $18.5 billion, and 12% in 2016 to $20.8 billion. To bolster its predictions, FMI quotes a May 2015 report from Lodging Econometrics that estimates 3,885 projects and 488,230 rooms currently under construction. “The greatest amount of growth will continue to be upscale properties and event locations,” FMI states;
• Office construction has slowed a bit from its gains in 2014. But FMI still expects office construction to be up by 14% to $52.6 billion this year, and by 7% to $56.3 billion in 2016. The National Association of Realtors predicts that office vacancies would drop below 15% by year’s end. And JLI noted recently that more than 40% of all office leases 20,000 sf or larger are exhibiting growth;
• Healthcare construction is on a path to return to “historical growth rates” over the next four years. That would mean a 5% increase to $40.4 billion this year, and a 10% gain to $41.9 billion next year. FMI points out, though, that “the changing nature of health care and insurance” continues to make investors nervous. Renovation and expansion will account for the lion’s share of construction projects going forward;
• The Educational sector “is growing again,” albeit modestly, says FMI. Construction in place should increase by 3% to $82.3 billion this year, and then bump up by 10% to $85.8 billion in 2016. FMI notes that K-12 construction is getting less funding from states, even as enrollment is expected to expand by 2.5 million over the next four years.
• Commercial construction—which is essentially the retail and food segments—should be up 8% to $67.7 billion in 2015, and grow by another 10% to $74.4 billion, next year. FMI quotes Commerce Department estimates that food services and drinking places were up in July by 9% over the same month in 2014, and non-store retail rose by 5.2%.
• Amusements and recreation-related construction was up 9% last year, and is expected to increase to 11% to $18.5 billion in 2015, and by 8% next year, when it should hit nearly $20 billion. FMI anticipates ongoing municipal demand for sports venues, which are seen as “job creators.”
• The slowdown of multifamily construction may have to wait another year. FMI expects construction of buildings with five or more residential units to increase by 11% in 2015, and by 12% next year to $63.1 billion.
Related Stories
Contractors | Sep 14, 2015
Gilbane report: Nonres building on brink of ‘breakout’ spending year
Total construction spending is on pace to achieve double-digit growth in 2015, and a strong single-digit increase next year. But finding labor will be tough.
Giants 400 | Sep 10, 2015
INDUSTRIAL SECTOR GIANTS: Stantec, Turner, Jacobs among top industrial AEC firms
BD+C's rankings of the nation's largest industrial sector design and construction firms, as reported in the 2015 Giants 300 Report
Giants 400 | Sep 10, 2015
MILITARY SECTOR GIANTS: Clark Group, HDR, Fluor top rankings of nation's largest military sector AEC firms
BD+C's rankings of the nation's largest military sector design and construction firms, as reported in the 2015 Giants 300 Report
Contractors | Sep 9, 2015
ABC: Construction activity increases as backlog edges higher
The backlog indicator is up 1% to 8.5 months during the second quarter of 2015.
Giants 400 | Sep 8, 2015
RETAIL SECTOR GIANTS: Callison RTKL, PCL Construction, Jacobs among top retail sector AEC firms
BD+C's rankings of the nation's largest retail sector design and construction firms, as reported in the 2015 Giants 300 Report
BIM and Information Technology | Sep 7, 2015
The power of data: How AEC firms and owners are using analytics to transform design and construction
Case’s bldgs = data conference highlighted how collecting data about personal activities can inform design and extend the power of BIM/VDC.
Industrial Facilities | Sep 3, 2015
DATA CENTER SECTOR GIANTS: Fluor, Gensler, Holder Construction among top data center AEC firms
BD+C's rankings of the nation's largest data center sector design and construction firms, as reported in the 2015 Giants 300 Report
Airports | Aug 31, 2015
Surveys gauge users’ satisfaction with airports
Several surveys gauge passenger satisfaction with airports, as flyers and airlines weigh in on technology, security, and renovations.
Airports | Aug 31, 2015
Small and regional airports in a dogfight for survival
Small and regional airports are in a dogfight for survival. Airlines have either cut routes to non-hub markets, or don’t provide enough seating capacity to meet demand.
Airports | Aug 31, 2015
Airports expand rental car facilities to ease vehicular traffic at their terminals
AEC teams have found fertile ground in building or expanding consolidated rental car facilities, which are the No. 1 profit centers for most airports.