Three countries—The United States, China, and India—will account for nearly three-fifths of worldwide construction growth over the next 15 years. However, their respective expansions are expected to vary markedly.
In their latest report, “Global Construction 2030,” Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics estimate that annual worldwide construction activity would increase by an average of 3.9% over the next decade and a half, or one percentage point higher than the projected global GDP over that period.
The report forecasts that construction output will expand by 85% to $15.5 trillion worldwide in 2030, with the U.S., China, and India accounting for 57% of that growth. While China should remain the world’s largest construction market, its building activity is slowing and will increase “only marginally” during these years.
U.S. construction, on the other hand, is expected to grow at a 5% per year clip. America’s southern states will be the country’s construction engine over this period. And four metropolitan areas—New York, Chicago, Los Angeles, and Houston, which aggregately are home to 15% of the U.S. population—alone should account for 27% of the country’s entire construction output over this period.
Even as speculation, this report is good news for American construction workers whose industry has yet to recover fully from the last recession. Construction unemployment rate in October fell to its lowest level since 2007, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. But there were 6.43 million construction workers employed in the U.S. in October, compared to 7.73 million in April 2006.
Census Bureau data show that construction spending in the U.S. has been rising since February 2011—when it was just shy of an annualized $755 billion—to $1.09 trillion in September 2015. But that latest figure still falls short of the last peak, $1.213 trillion in March 2006.
Back on the world stage, India is on pace to surpass Japan as the world’s third-largest construction market by 2021, and grow at twice the rate of China through 2030, says Graham Robinson, Global Construction Perspectives’ executive director. He notes that India’s urban population over the next 15 years is expected to increase by a “staggering” 165 million, with Delhi alone adding 10.4 million people to become the world’s second-largest city.
The report sees only modest construction growth going on in Europe, which might not reach pre-recession levels again until 2025. The exception could be the United Kingdom, which the report sees overtaking Germany as the world’s sixth-largest construction market by 2030.
On the other hand, “the current weakness in most emerging countries [such as Brazil, Indonesia, and Russia] is likely to be temporary, with higher growth rates soon returning,” writes Mike Betts of Global Construction Perspectives.
The full report can be downloaded (single user license) for £1,875 ($US2,851).
Related Stories
Hotel Facilities | Jul 27, 2023
U.S. hotel construction pipeline remains steady with 5,572 projects in the works
The hotel construction pipeline grew incrementally in Q2 2023 as developers and franchise companies push through short-term challenges while envisioning long-term prospects, according to Lodging Econometrics.
Sustainability | Jul 27, 2023
USGBC warns against building energy code preemptions, rollbacks
In a recent editorial, the USGBC cited a growing number of U.S. state legislators who are “aiming to roll back building energy code standards and/or preempt local governments from advancing energy-efficient building codes.”
Resiliency | Jul 27, 2023
'Underground climate change' can damage building foundations, civil infrastructure
A phenomenon known as “underground climate change” can lead to damage of building foundations and civil infrastructure, according to a researcher at Northwestern University. When the ground gets hotter, it can expand and contract, causing foundations to move and sometimes crack.
Adaptive Reuse | Jul 27, 2023
Number of U.S. adaptive reuse projects jumps to 122,000 from 77,000
The number of adaptive reuse projects in the pipeline grew to a record 122,000 in 2023 from 77,000 registered last year, according to RentCafe’s annual Adaptive Reuse Report. Of the 122,000 apartments currently undergoing conversion, 45,000 are the result of office repurposing, representing 37% of the total, followed by hotels (23% of future projects).
Hotel Facilities | Jul 26, 2023
Hospitality building construction costs for 2023
Data from Gordian breaks down the average cost per square foot for 15-story hotels, restaurants, fast food restaurants, and movie theaters across 10 U.S. cities: Boston, Chicago, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, New Orleans, New York, Phoenix, Seattle, and Washington, D.C.
Sports and Recreational Facilities | Jul 26, 2023
10 ways public aquatic centers and recreation centers benefit community health
A new report from HMC Architects explores the critical role aquatic centers and recreation centers play in society and how they can make a lasting, positive impact on the people they serve.
Multifamily Housing | Jul 25, 2023
San Francisco seeks proposals for adaptive reuse of underutilized downtown office buildings
The City of San Francisco released a Request For Interest to identify office building conversions that city officials could help expedite with zoning changes, regulatory measures, and financial incentives.
Urban Planning | Jul 24, 2023
New York’s new ‘czar of public space’ ramps up pedestrian and bike-friendly projects
Having made considerable strides to make streets more accessible to pedestrians and bikers in recent years, New York City is continuing to build on that momentum. Ya-Ting Liu, the city’s first public realm officer, is shepherding $375 million in funding earmarked for projects intended to make the city more environmentally friendly and boost quality of life.
Market Data | Jul 24, 2023
Leading economists call for 2% increase in building construction spending in 2024
Following a 19.7% surge in spending for commercial, institutional, and industrial buildings in 2023, leading construction industry economists expect spending growth to come back to earth in 2024, according to the July 2023 AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel.
Hotel Facilities | Jul 21, 2023
In Phoenix, a former motel transforms into a boutique hotel with a midcentury vibe
The Egyptian Motor Hotel’s 48 guest rooms come with midcentury furnishings ranging from egg chairs to Bluetooth speakers that look like Marshall amplifiers.