Three countries—The United States, China, and India—will account for nearly three-fifths of worldwide construction growth over the next 15 years. However, their respective expansions are expected to vary markedly.
In their latest report, “Global Construction 2030,” Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics estimate that annual worldwide construction activity would increase by an average of 3.9% over the next decade and a half, or one percentage point higher than the projected global GDP over that period.
The report forecasts that construction output will expand by 85% to $15.5 trillion worldwide in 2030, with the U.S., China, and India accounting for 57% of that growth. While China should remain the world’s largest construction market, its building activity is slowing and will increase “only marginally” during these years.
U.S. construction, on the other hand, is expected to grow at a 5% per year clip. America’s southern states will be the country’s construction engine over this period. And four metropolitan areas—New York, Chicago, Los Angeles, and Houston, which aggregately are home to 15% of the U.S. population—alone should account for 27% of the country’s entire construction output over this period.
Even as speculation, this report is good news for American construction workers whose industry has yet to recover fully from the last recession. Construction unemployment rate in October fell to its lowest level since 2007, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. But there were 6.43 million construction workers employed in the U.S. in October, compared to 7.73 million in April 2006.
Census Bureau data show that construction spending in the U.S. has been rising since February 2011—when it was just shy of an annualized $755 billion—to $1.09 trillion in September 2015. But that latest figure still falls short of the last peak, $1.213 trillion in March 2006.
Back on the world stage, India is on pace to surpass Japan as the world’s third-largest construction market by 2021, and grow at twice the rate of China through 2030, says Graham Robinson, Global Construction Perspectives’ executive director. He notes that India’s urban population over the next 15 years is expected to increase by a “staggering” 165 million, with Delhi alone adding 10.4 million people to become the world’s second-largest city.
The report sees only modest construction growth going on in Europe, which might not reach pre-recession levels again until 2025. The exception could be the United Kingdom, which the report sees overtaking Germany as the world’s sixth-largest construction market by 2030.
On the other hand, “the current weakness in most emerging countries [such as Brazil, Indonesia, and Russia] is likely to be temporary, with higher growth rates soon returning,” writes Mike Betts of Global Construction Perspectives.
The full report can be downloaded (single user license) for £1,875 ($US2,851).
Related Stories
Green | Aug 7, 2023
Rooftop photovoltaic panels credited with propelling solar energy output to record high
Solar provided a record-high 7.3% of U.S. electrical generation in May, “driven in large part by growth in ‘estimated’ small-scale (e.g., rooftop) solar PV whose output increased by 25.6% and accounted for nearly a third (31.9%) of total solar production,” according to a report by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Government Buildings | Aug 7, 2023
Nearly $1 billion earmarked for energy efficiency upgrades to federal buildings
The U.S. General Services Administration (GSA) recently announced plans to use $975 million in Inflation Reduction Act funding for energy efficiency and clean energy upgrades to federal buildings across the country. The investment will impact about 40 million sf, or about 20% of GSA’s federal buildings portfolio.
Government Buildings | Aug 2, 2023
A historic courthouse in Charlotte is updated and expanded by Robert A.M. Stern Architects
Robert A.M. Stern Architects’ design retains the original building’s look and presence.
Hotel Facilities | Aug 2, 2023
Top 5 markets for hotel construction
According to the United States Construction Pipeline Trend Report by Lodging Econometrics (LE) for Q2 2023, the five markets with the largest hotel construction pipelines are Dallas with a record-high 184 projects/21,501 rooms, Atlanta with 141 projects/17,993 rooms, Phoenix with 119 projects/16,107 rooms, Nashville with 116 projects/15,346 rooms, and Los Angeles with 112 projects/17,797 rooms.
Market Data | Aug 1, 2023
Nonresidential construction spending increases slightly in June
National nonresidential construction spending increased 0.1% in June, according to an Associated Builders and Contractors analysis of data published today by the U.S. Census Bureau. Spending is up 18% over the past 12 months. On a seasonally adjusted annualized basis, nonresidential spending totaled $1.07 trillion in June.
Healthcare Facilities | Aug 1, 2023
Top 10 healthcare design projects for 2023
The HKS-designed Allegheny Health Network Wexford (Pa.) Hospital and Flad Architects' Sarasota Memorial Hospital - Venice (Fla.) highlight 10 projects to win 2023 Healthcare Design Awards from the American Institute of Architects Academy of Architecture for Health.
Digital Twin | Jul 31, 2023
Creating the foundation for a Digital Twin
Aligning the BIM model with the owner’s asset management system is the crucial first step in creating a Digital Twin. By following these guidelines, organizations can harness the power of Digital Twins to optimize facility management, maintenance planning, and decision-making throughout the building’s lifecycle.
K-12 Schools | Jul 31, 2023
Austin’s new Rosedale School serves students with special needs aged 3 to 22
In Austin, the Rosedale School has opened for students with special needs aged 3 to 22. The new facility features sensory rooms, fully accessible playgrounds and gardens, community meeting spaces, and an on-site clinic. The school serves 100 learners with special needs from across Austin Independent School District (ISD).
MFPRO+ New Projects | Jul 27, 2023
OMA, Beyer Blinder Belle design a pair of sculptural residential towers in Brooklyn
Eagle + West, composed of two sculptural residential towers with complementary shapes, have added 745 rental units to a post-industrial waterfront in Brooklyn, N.Y. Rising from a mixed-use podium on an expansive site, the towers include luxury penthouses on the top floors, numerous market rate rental units, and 30% of units designated for affordable housing.
Affordable Housing | Jul 27, 2023
Houston to soon have 50 new residential units for youth leaving foster care
Houston will soon have 50 new residential units for youth leaving the foster care system and entering adulthood. The Houston Alumni and Youth (HAY) Center has broken ground on its 59,000-sf campus, with completion expected by July 2024. The HAY Center is a nonprofit program of Harris County Resources for Children and Adults and for foster youth ages 14-25 transitioning to adulthood in the Houston community.