Prices for inputs to construction fell 0.5% in August but are 8.1% higher than at the same time one year ago, according to an Associated Builders and Contractors analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics data released today. Nonresidential construction input prices fell 0.4% in August but are up 8.3% year-over-year. Softwood lumber prices plummeted 9.6% in August yet are up 5% on a yearly basis (down from a 19.5% increase year-over-year in July).
“Stakeholders will be tempted to look upon this month’s inputs to the construction Producer Price Index report as evidence that the cycle of rapidly rising prices is nearing an end,” said ABC Chief Economist Anirban Basu. “Prices of key inputs have been high for quite some time, which would tend to induce a larger supply of these items and, in turn, moderate prices.
“Some may also conclude that ongoing progress in trade negotiations with nations including Mexico and Canada has helped to moderate input prices. Still others might point to growing economic turmoil in nations like Turkey and Argentina. Economists would also note the likely impact of a strong U.S. dollar on import and commodity prices. While all of these are potential explanations, another possibility is that the August data are largely statistical aberrations. Metal prices continue to move higher on a monthly basis, with recently enacted tariffs representing a likely explanation.
“Softwood lumber, the subject of an ongoing trade dispute with the Canadians, experienced a significant dip in price on a monthly basis,” said Basu. “The price of softwood may have fallen in response to a weakening single-family residential construction market, as home builders have been wrestling with a combination of labor shortages, higher land prices and weakening demand due to higher mortgage rates.
“In the final analysis, the falling input prices trend likely won’t continue,” said Basu. “The economy is still strong, and ABC’s Construction Backlog Indicator remains elevated in both public and private construction segments. Inflation expectations have shifted, with purchasers of construction services now anticipating price increases and therefore more willing to accommodate them. Moreover, issues related to tariffs and trade wars persist. Accordingly, estimators and construction companies continue to consider the likelihood of additional input price increases for the balance of 2018 and into 2019.”
Related Stories
Market Data | Jun 1, 2020
7 must reads for the AEC industry today: June 1, 2020
Energy storage as an amenity and an entry-point for wellness screening everywhere.
Market Data | May 29, 2020
House-passed bill making needed improvements to paycheck protection program will allow construction firms to save more jobs
Construction official urges senate and White House to quickly pass and sign into law the Paycheck Protection Program Flexibility Act.
Market Data | May 29, 2020
7 must reads for the AEC industry today: May 29, 2020
Using lighting IoT data to inform a safer office reentry strategy and Ghafari joins forces with Eview 360.
Market Data | May 27, 2020
5 must reads for the AEC industry today: May 28, 2020
Biophilic design on the High Line and the office market could be a COVID-19 casualty.
Market Data | May 27, 2020
6 must reads for the AEC industry today: May 27, 2020
AIA's COTE Top Ten Awards and OSHA now requires employers to track COVID-19 cases.
Market Data | May 26, 2020
6 must reads for the AEC industry today: May 26, 2020
Apple's new Austin hotel and is CLT really a green solution?
Market Data | May 21, 2020
7 must reads for the AEC industry today: May 21, 2020
'Creepy' tech invades post-pandemic offices, and meet the new darling of commercial real estate.
Market Data | May 20, 2020
6 must reads for the AEC industry today: May 20, 2020
A wave 'inside' a South Korean building and architecture billings continues historic contraction.
Market Data | May 20, 2020
Architecture billings continue historic contraction
AIA’s Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score of 29.5 for April reflects a decrease in design services provided by U.S. architecture firms.
Market Data | May 19, 2020
5 must reads for the AEC industry today: May 19, 2020
Clemson's new mass timber building and empty hotels as an answer for the affordable housing shortage.