Gilbane has released its Spring 2014 edition of the periodic report "Construction Economics: Market Conditions in Construction" (download the full report).
Among the findings from the Executive Summary:
CONSTRUCTION GROWTH IS LOOKING UP
- Construction Spending for 2014 will finish the year 6.6% higher than 2013. Nonresidential buildings will contribute substantially to the growth.
- The Architecture Billings Index (ABI) in 2013 dropped below 50 in April, November and December briefly, indicating declining workload. Overall the ABI portrays a good leading indicator for future new construction work.
- Selling price data for 2013 shows contractors adding to their margins.
- Construction jobs grew by 156,000 in 2013, less than anticipated. However, hours worked also grew by 3%, the equivalent of another 150,000+ jobs.
SOME ECONOMIC FACTORS ARE STILL NEGATIVE
- We are experiencing a slight slowdown in construction spending that could last through May, influenced by a slight dip in nonresidential buildings and a brief flattening in residential, but more so by a steep decline in nonbuilding infrastructure spending. The monthly rate of spending for nonbuilding infrastructure may decline by 10% through Q3 2014.
- The construction workforce and hours worked is still 22% below the 2006 peak. At peak average growth rates, it will take a minimum of five more years to return to previous peak levels.
- Construction volume is 23% below peak inflation adjusted spending, which was almost constant from 2000 through 2006. At average peak growth rates of 8% per year, and factoring out inflation to get real volume growth, it will take eight more years to regain previous peak volume levels.
- As workload expands in the next few years, a shortage of available skilled workers may have a detrimental effect on cost, productivity and the ability to readily increase construction volume.
THE EFFECTS OF GROWTH
- Construction spending during the first five months of 2013 declined from the rate of spending in Q4 2012. Growth has been inconsistent, even in the booming residential sector, which has seen recent declines. We see more consistent growth in 2014 for buildings.
- As spending continues to increase, contractors gain more ability to pass along costs and increase margins. The growth in contractor margins slowed since last year. However, expected increases in volume should reverse that in 2014.
- ENR’s Third Quarter 2013 Cost Report shows general purpose and material cost indices increased on average about 2% to 2.5% year over year. However, selling price indices increased 4% on average. The difference between these indices is increased margins.
IMPACT OF RECENT EVENTS
- There are several reasons why spending is not rapidly increasing: public sector construction remains depressed as sequestration continues; the government is spending less on schools and infrastructure; lenders are just beginning to loosen lending criteria; consumers are still cautious about increasing debt load, including the consumers’ share of public debt and we may be constrained by a skilled labor shortage.
- Supported by overall positive growth trends for year 2014, Gilbane expects margins and overall escalation to climb more rapidly than we have seen in six years.
- Growth in nonresidential buildings and residential construction in 2014 will lead to more significant labor demand, resulting in labor shortages and productivity losses. Margins regained a positive footing in 2012 and extended those gains in 2013. Expect margins to grow stronger in 2014. When activity picks up in all sectors, escalation will begin to advance rapidly.
Click here to download the complete report and a list of data sources.
ABOUT THIS REPORT
Gilbane Inc. is a full service construction and real estate development company, composed of Gilbane Building Company and Gilbane Development Company. The company (www.gilbaneco.com) is one of the nation’s largest construction and program managers providing a full slate of facilities related services for clients in education, healthcare, life sciences, mission critical, corporate, sports and recreation, criminal justice, public and aviation markets. Gilbane has more than 50 offices worldwide, with its corporate office located in Providence, Rhode Island. The information in this report is not specific to any one region.
Related Stories
| May 20, 2013
4 emerging trends in parking structure design
Survey of parking professionals reveals how technology is transforming the parking industry.
| May 20, 2013
Jones Lang LaSalle: All U.S. real estate sectors to post gains in 2013—even retail
With healthier job growth numbers and construction volumes at near-historic lows, real estate experts at Jones Lang LaSalle see a rosy year for U.S. commercial construction.
| May 17, 2013
First look: HKS' multipurpose stadium for Minnesota Vikings
The Minnesota Sports Facilities Authority (MSFA), the Minnesota Vikings and HKS Sports & Entertainment Group have unveiled the design of the State’s new multi? purpose stadium in Minneapolis, a major milestone in getting the $975 million stadium built on time and on budget.
| May 17, 2013
40 Under 40 winners: Meet the architects
Of the up-and-coming AEC professionals to be named 40 Under 40 winners by the editors of Building Design+Construction, 18 make their living in the architecture profession.
| May 17, 2013
5 things AEC pros need to know about low-e glass
Low-emissivity glasses are critical to making today’s buildings brighter, more energy-efficient, and more sustainable. Here are five tips to help AEC professionals understand the differences among low-e glasses and their impact on building performance.
| May 17, 2013
University labs double as K-12 learning environments
Increasingly, college and university research buildings are doing double duty as homes for K-12 STEM programs. Here’s how to create facilities that captivate budding scientists while keeping faculty happy.
| May 17, 2013
LEED v4 has provision to reduce water use in cooling towers
The next version of the U.S. Green Building Council's LEED rating system will expand water-savings targets to appliances, cooling towers, commercial kitchen equipment, and other areas.
| May 16, 2013
Chicago unveils $1.1 billion plan for DePaul arena, Navy Pier upgrades
Hoping to send a loud message that Chicago is serious about luring tourism and entertainment spending, Mayor Rahm Emanuel has released details of two initiatives that have been developing for more than a year and that it says will mean $1.1 billion in investment in the McCormick Place and Navy Pier areas.
| May 16, 2013
Michael R. Bohn named Executive VP at Gilbane
Gilbane has promoted Michael R. Bohn to executive vice president. With over 28 years of service to the company and leadership roles on such high-profile projects as the University of Michigan Biomedical Science Building and the University of Chicago Medical Center, Bohn will now have responsibility for Gilbane’s New York and Midwest business units.