Building revenue and demand for new commercial construction may be rising fast—but so are costs. Profitability for new commercial building projects will be tricky in 2015, as soaring demand may not lead to soaring profits.
“Leasing momentum is boosting construction demand across multiple commercial property sectors—but raw material and labor costs are making it more expensive to get out of the ground than ever before,” said Todd Burns, President, JLL Project and Development Services, Americas. “Demand is exploding, but demand isn’t everything. You have to consider the bottom line of every project to make sure it makes economic sense short- and long-term.”
Affirming rising demand, the American Institute of Architects’ Consensus Construction Forecast projects that spending on non-residential construction is expected to rise 7.7% in every commercial property sector this year. Likewise, the Construction Backlog Indicator, which tracks non-residential construction, hit a post-downturn high of 8.8 months in the third quarter of 2014.
A new JLL report on U.S. non-residential construction activity highlights several trends to watch in 2015:
- The construction industry remains 22% below peak (2007) levels. According to Gilbane, it may take seven to eight more years to retain previous levels.
- Recovery Continues, Backlog Builds. The overall value of buildings constructed has continued to grow since bottoming-out in 2010. The Construction Backlog Index has grown in all but the Southeast Region, indicating that 2015 will be a big year for construction. Office vacancy rates across the country have declined from 14.1% in 2012 to 10.9% in the fourth quarter of 2014, further strengthening demand. That said, cities with high labor costs and limited land, like New York and New Jersey, may see construction activity slow.
- Costs Climbing Higher. Although raw material costs are expected to stabilize in 2015, rising labor costs will force construction costs continue to grow. Cities such as New York and Chicago will feel the pain of cost hikes and so will Minneapolis where a massive downtown refurbishment is underway. Even Atlanta, one of the lowest-cost markets, saw a bump up in overall prices for the first time since 2008. This could be troublesome for the education sector, which reported the highest level of spending on construction in 2014 at $78.7 billion.
- The Construction Unemployment Paradox. Construction unemployment rates remain high, indicating a large potential employment pool for new construction. However, overall unemployment will drop quickly as building continues to grow. Though unemployment will drop, costs will continue to rise due to productivity issues; there is a lack of construction workers with the right skills and training, frustrating employers and driving up overall labor costs. Costs are also growing more quickly in union-centric markets. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the lack of available workers with the right training will worsen even as 1.1 million construction jobs are added to the market by 2020. The construction industry has grown every month of 2014, gaining 48,000 jobs in December to reach 290,000 total in 2014. However, overall construction employment is still 1.5 million lower than its peak in 2007.
- Cheaper to Build Than to Lease. With more demand for new construction in some markets like Chicago, West L.A. and Seattle, replacement costs have become lower than purchase prices so constructing new space is more cost-effective than leasing existing space.
While the overall market is recovering, it’s not an even recovery. Construction of distribution facilities supporting e-commerce and retail supply chains will continue to expand, particularly in markets like Dallas and Miami, where new facilities are needed to support sophisticated logistics strategies. Conversely, due to a high volume of office projects started in 2014, more than 16 million sf of new office development is under construction in Houston; 44% of that space remains unleased, which may cause vacancy issues for the city down the road, especially if oil prices remain low.
“Vacancy rates for industrial properties have dropped in the last two years, and competition for big distribution centers has increased dramatically,” said Dana Westgren, research analyst with JLL. “Particularly in locations near ports and other key supply chain locations, new construction can replace older, now-obsolete facilities.”
Download a copy of the JLL U.S. Construction Perspective for Q4 2014 report here.
Related Stories
AEC Innovators | Jun 15, 2023
Rogers-O'Brien Construction pilots wearables to reduce heat-related injuries on jobsites
Rogers-O'Brien Construction (RO) has launched a pilot program utilizing SafeGuard, a safety-as-a-service platform for real-time health and safety risk assessment. Non-invasive wearables connected to SafeGuard continuously monitor personnel to prevent heat exhaustion on jobsites, reducing the risk of related injuries. RO is the first general contractor to pilot this program.
Office Buildings | Jun 15, 2023
An office building near DFW Airport is now home to two Alphabet companies
A five-minute drive from the Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport, the recently built 2999 Olympus is now home to two Alphabet companies: Verily, a life sciences business, and Wing, a drone delivery company. Verily and Wing occupy the top floor (32,000 sf and 4,000 sf, respectively) of the 10-story building, located in the lakeside, work-life-play development of Cypress Waters.
Transit Facilities | Jun 15, 2023
Arlington, Va., transit station will support zero emissions bus fleet
Arlington (Va.) Transit’s new operations and maintenance facility will support a transition of their current bus fleet to Zero Emissions Buses (ZEBs). The facility will reflect a modern industrial design with operational layouts to embrace a functional aesthetic. Intuitive entry points and wayfinding will include biophilic accents.
Urban Planning | Jun 15, 2023
Arizona limits housing projects in Phoenix area over groundwater supply concerns
Arizona will no longer grant certifications for new residential developments in Phoenix, it’s largest city, due to concerns over groundwater supply. The announcement indicates that the Phoenix area, currently the nation’s fastest-growing region in terms of population growth, will not be able to sustain its rapid growth because of limited freshwater resources.
Multifamily Housing | Jun 15, 2023
Alliance of Pittsburgh building owners slashes carbon emissions by 45%
The Pittsburgh 2030 District, an alliance of property owners in the Pittsburgh area, says that it has reduced carbon emissions by 44.8% below baseline. Begun in 2012 under the guidance of the Green Building Alliance (GBA), the Pittsburgh 2030 District encompasses more than 86 million sf of space within 556 buildings.
Industry Research | Jun 15, 2023
Exurbs and emerging suburbs having fastest population growth, says Cushman & Wakefield
Recently released county and metro-level population growth data by the U.S. Census Bureau shows that the fastest growing areas are found in exurbs and emerging suburbs.
Engineers | Jun 14, 2023
The high cost of low maintenance
Walter P Moore’s Javier Balma, PhD, PE, SE, and Webb Wright, PE, identify the primary causes of engineering failures, define proactive versus reactive maintenance, recognize the reasons for deferred maintenance, and identify the financial and safety risks related to deferred maintenance.
University Buildings | Jun 14, 2023
Calif. State University’s new ‘library-plus’ building bridges upper and lower campuses
A three-story “library-plus” building at California State University, East Bay (CSUEB) that ties together the upper and lower campuses was recently completed. The 100,977-sf facility, known as the Collaborative Opportunities for Research & Engagement (“CORE”) Building, is one of the busiest libraries in the CSU system. The previous library served 1.2 million visitors annually.
Resiliency | Jun 14, 2023
HUD offers $4.8 billion in funding for green and resilient building retrofit projects
The Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) recently released guidelines for its Green and Resilient Retrofit Program (GRRP) that has $4.8 billion for funding green projects.
Arenas | Jun 14, 2023
A multipurpose arena helps revitalize a historic African American community in Georgia
In Savannah, Ga., Enmarket Arena, a multipurpose arena that opened last year, has helped revitalize the city’s historic Canal District—home to a largely African American community that has been historically separated from the rest of downtown.