Overcapacity in global iron ore production was a major factor in keeping construction costs low through the first four months of 2015. And for the first time in years, subcontractor labor costs showed signs of softening.
Those are two key findings in the latest assessment of current and future pricing from IHS, the Englewood, Colo.-based market analysis firm.
IHS derives its monthly Cost Index from information it receives from member procurement executives working for several of the world’s largest construction and engineering companies, including AECOM and Bechtel. It breaks down those data into current pricing trends and projections for six months forward.
In April, its Cost Index was 46.2, a bit higher than 44.7 in March, but still below what IHS would consider a “neutral” reading. Its sub index for Materials/Equipment costs in April was 44.9 compared to 43.0 in March. And the April sub index for Subcontractor Labor costs stood at 49.1, compared to 48.7 in March.
Procurement execs from some of the world's largest construction and engineering firms report that costs for materials and labor are still falling, and are unlikely to see much inflation for the next six months. Chart: IHS
IHS notes that eight of 12 construction components it tracks registered falling prices in April, led by carbon steel pipe and fabricated structural steel. Both are victims of “bloated capacity, weak profit growth, and lackluster demand,” explains John Anton, IHS’s Director of Steel Services. Iron ore companies that, in response to demand from China’s steel industry, have initiated massive projects whose capacity, so far, “is far ahead of demand,” and is holding prices down.
Anton adds that while the iron ore market may have some ostensible similarities to the recent decline of crude oil prices, what’s different is that iron ore producers have shown no inclinations toward cutting production to match demand. (IHS points out that three quarters of China’s mines are losing money.)
IHS also notes that several global construction and engineering firms, particularly those in the oil and gas sectors, have been taking a “wait and see” approach to investing in larger capital projects. “The capex environment has yet to thaw,” asserts Mark Eisinger, IHS’s senior economist.
While some markets, like the U.S. South, are still experiencing shortages in skilled subcontractor labor, manpower costs have been receding. For the third consecutive month, the U.S. did not register higher month-to-month labor costs in April. And for the first time in this survey’s history, projections about labor costs over the next six months are below the neutral mark. The six-month cost index for subcontractor labor fell to 47.4 in April, compared to 55.2 in March.
The forward-looking index for materials and equipment, at 43.4 April, rose from March’s record low of 41.9, even as 10 of 12 components showed falling price expectations.
Related Stories
Contractors | Apr 8, 2019
Employers at risk when using construction equipment not sized for women
As more women enter male-dominated fields, gear supply has not kept up with demand.
Mixed-Use | Apr 7, 2019
Chicago-area joint venture antes up $1 billion for Opportunity Zone development investment
Decennial Group says it’s looking at 250 potential projects, primarily in America’s heartland and rural areas.
AEC Tech | Jan 9, 2019
Our robotic future: Assessing AI's impact on the AEC profession and the built environment
This is the first in a series by Lance Hosey, FAIA, on how automation is disrupting design and construction.
Great Solutions | Jan 2, 2019
Net zero construction trailer brings health and wellness to the jobsite
As AEC firms scramble to upgrade their offices to maximize occupant wellness and productivity, Pepper Construction asks, What about the jobsite office?
Building Owners | Dec 18, 2018
More-frequent catastrophes are exposing commercial real estate and properties to potentially higher insurance rates
A new report on the property and casualty market foresees modest rate hikes for construction projects.
Building Technology | Dec 18, 2018
Data and analytics are becoming essential for EC firms competing to rebuild America’s infrastructure
A new paper from Deloitte Consulting advises companies to revise their strategies with an eye toward leveraging advanced technologies.
3D Printing | Dec 7, 2018
Additive manufacturing heads to the jobsite
Prototype mobile 3D printing shop aims to identify additive manufacturing applications for construction jobsites.
Contractors | Oct 26, 2018
How three contractors expanded thin profit margins
If there’s one issue that every contractor is familiar with, it’s the challenge of finishing the job on time and on budget.
Contractors | Oct 26, 2018
Three ways construction leaders harness digital transformation
The construction industry is lagging behind others when it comes to digital transformation. Some construction firms “are still using paper-based processes that can only be described as archaic,” according to a 2016 report by PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP’s Strategy1.
Contractors | Oct 24, 2018
How seasoned construction pros handle the cost of scaling up
Here’s how seasoned operators meet the new demand for homes, offices and new locations without drowning in new expenses.