Overcapacity in global iron ore production was a major factor in keeping construction costs low through the first four months of 2015. And for the first time in years, subcontractor labor costs showed signs of softening.
Those are two key findings in the latest assessment of current and future pricing from IHS, the Englewood, Colo.-based market analysis firm.
IHS derives its monthly Cost Index from information it receives from member procurement executives working for several of the world’s largest construction and engineering companies, including AECOM and Bechtel. It breaks down those data into current pricing trends and projections for six months forward.
In April, its Cost Index was 46.2, a bit higher than 44.7 in March, but still below what IHS would consider a “neutral” reading. Its sub index for Materials/Equipment costs in April was 44.9 compared to 43.0 in March. And the April sub index for Subcontractor Labor costs stood at 49.1, compared to 48.7 in March.
Procurement execs from some of the world's largest construction and engineering firms report that costs for materials and labor are still falling, and are unlikely to see much inflation for the next six months. Chart: IHS
IHS notes that eight of 12 construction components it tracks registered falling prices in April, led by carbon steel pipe and fabricated structural steel. Both are victims of “bloated capacity, weak profit growth, and lackluster demand,” explains John Anton, IHS’s Director of Steel Services. Iron ore companies that, in response to demand from China’s steel industry, have initiated massive projects whose capacity, so far, “is far ahead of demand,” and is holding prices down.
Anton adds that while the iron ore market may have some ostensible similarities to the recent decline of crude oil prices, what’s different is that iron ore producers have shown no inclinations toward cutting production to match demand. (IHS points out that three quarters of China’s mines are losing money.)
IHS also notes that several global construction and engineering firms, particularly those in the oil and gas sectors, have been taking a “wait and see” approach to investing in larger capital projects. “The capex environment has yet to thaw,” asserts Mark Eisinger, IHS’s senior economist.
While some markets, like the U.S. South, are still experiencing shortages in skilled subcontractor labor, manpower costs have been receding. For the third consecutive month, the U.S. did not register higher month-to-month labor costs in April. And for the first time in this survey’s history, projections about labor costs over the next six months are below the neutral mark. The six-month cost index for subcontractor labor fell to 47.4 in April, compared to 55.2 in March.
The forward-looking index for materials and equipment, at 43.4 April, rose from March’s record low of 41.9, even as 10 of 12 components showed falling price expectations.
Related Stories
AEC Innovators | Aug 15, 2019
Oracle’s replica of a construction jobsite creates an immersive environment for AEC professionals
The Oracle Construction and Engineering Innovation Lab allows visitors to walk through five different stages of construction work, to test new AEC technologies and training techniques.
Giants 400 | Aug 13, 2019
2019 Science + Technology Giants Report: Operational flexibility is a must for S+T buildings
The science and technology (S+T) sector is arguably the industry’s most complex because it caters to a diverse clientele with specific priorities and imperatives, according to Building Design+Construction's 2019 Giants 300 Report.
Giants 400 | Aug 8, 2019
Top 110 Office Sector Construction Firms for 2019
Turner, STO Building Group, AECOM, Clayco, and Clark lead the rankings of the nation's largest office sector contractors and construction managers, as reported in Building Design+Construction's 2019 Giants 300 Report.
Giants 400 | Aug 8, 2019
2019 Office Giants Report: Demand for exceptional workplaces will keep the office construction market strong
Office space consolidation and workplace upgrades will keep project teams busy, according to BD+C's 2019 Giants 300 Report.
Museums | Jul 29, 2019
A new museum debuts inside the Empire State Building
A $165 million, 10,000-sf museum opened on the second floor of the Empire State Building in New York City, completing the second of a four-phase “reimagining” of that building’s observatory experience, which draws four million visitors annually.
Multifamily Housing | Jul 23, 2019
Is prefab in your future?
The most important benefit of offsite construction, when done right, is reliability.
Healthcare Facilities | Jul 15, 2019
Can a kids’ healthcare space teach, entertain, and heal?
Standard building requirements don’t have to be boring. Here’s how you can inject whimsical touches into everyday design features.
BD+C University Course | Jul 8, 2019
Shadow box design: To vent or not to vent [AIA course]
A curtain wall shadow box is a spandrel assembly consisting of vision glass at the building exterior and an opaque infill at the interior side of the curtain wall system. This course is worth 1.0 AIA LU/HSW.
Contractors | Jun 26, 2019
Katerra launches apprenticeship program to help develop the future of construction
The program offers nationally recognized, portable construction trade credentials.
Building Tech | Jun 26, 2019
Modular construction can deliver projects 50% faster
Modular construction can deliver projects 20% to 50% faster than traditional methods and drastically reshape how buildings are delivered, according to a new report from McKinsey & Co.