Following consistently increasing demand for design services throughout most of 2013, the Architecture Billings Index (ABI) has posted its first consecutive months of contraction since May and June of 2012.
As a leading economic indicator of construction activity, the ABI reflects the approximate nine to twelve month lead time between architecture billings and construction spending.
The American Institute of Architects (AIA) reported the December ABI score was 48.5, down from a mark of 49.8 in November. This score reflects a decrease in design services (any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings).
The new projects inquiry index was 59.2, up from the reading of 57.8 the previous month.
“What we thought last month was an isolated dip now bears closer examination to see what is causing the slowdown in demand for architectural services,” said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker, Hon. AIA, PhD. “It is possible that some of this can be attributed to the anxiety in the marketplace caused by the shutdown of the federal government, but it will be important to see how business conditions fare through the first quarter of the new year when we no longer have end of the year issues to deal with.”
Key December ABI highlights:
• Regional averages: West (53.2), South (51.2), Midwest (47.0), Northeast (42.8)
• Sector index breakdown: multi-family residential (53.8), mixed practice 51.0), commercial / industrial (47.1), institutional (44.8)
• Project inquiries index: 59.2
Note: The regional and sector categories are calculated as a 3-month moving average, whereas the index and inquiries are monthly numbers.
About the AIA Architecture Billings Index
The Architecture Billings Index (ABI), produced by the AIA Economics & Market Research Group, is a leading economic indicator that provides an approximately nine to twelve month glimpse into the future of nonresidential construction spending activity. The diffusion indexes contained in the full report are derived from a monthly “Work-on-the-Boards” survey that is sent to a panel of AIA member-owned firms.
Participants are asked whether their billings increased, decreased, or stayed the same in the month that just ended as compared to the prior month, and the results are then compiled into the ABI. These monthly results are also seasonally adjusted to allow for comparison to prior months. The monthly ABI index scores are centered around 50, with scores above 50 indicating an aggregate increase in billings, and scores below 50 indicating a decline. The regional and sector data are formulated using a three-month moving average.
More information on the ABI and the analysis of its relationship to construction activity can be found in the White Paper Architecture Billings as a Leading Indicator of Construction: Analysis of the Relationship Between a Billings Index and Construction Spending on the AIA website.
Related Stories
| Jul 1, 2013
Elizabeth Chu Richter, FAIA, elected 2015 AIA President
Delegates to the American Institute of Architects (AIA) national convention in Denver elected Elizabeth Chu Richter (AIA Corpus Christi) to serve as the 2014 AIA first vice president/president-elect and 2015 AIA president.
| Jun 28, 2013
Calculating the ROI of building enclosure commissioning
A researcher at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory calls building enclosure commissioning “the single-most cost-effective strategy for reducing energy, costs, and greenhouse gas emissions in buildings today.”
| Jun 28, 2013
A brief history of windows in America
Historic window experts from Hoffmann Architects look back at the origin of windows in the U.S.
| Jun 28, 2013
Building owners cite BIM/VDC as 'most exciting trend' in facilities management, says Mortenson report
A recent survey of more than 60 building owners and facility management professionals by Mortenson Construction shows that BIM/VDC is top of mind among owner professionals.
| Jun 27, 2013
Thermal, solar control designs can impact cooling loads by 200%, heating loads by 30%
Underestimating thermal bridging can greatly undermine a building’s performance contributing to heating load variances of up to 30% and cooling load variances of up to 200%, says the MMM Group.
| Jun 26, 2013
New York’s ‘Scaffold Law’ may be altered to place larger burden on workers
New York's Scaffold Law, which “places the burden of responsibility on the contractor to prove that the job site was safe for workers,” could be facing a major change.
| Jun 26, 2013
Commercial real estate execs eye multifamily, retail sectors for growth, says KPMG report
The multifamily, retail, and hospitality sectors are expected to lead commercial building growth, according to the 2013 KPMG Commercial Real Estate Outlook Survey.
| Jun 25, 2013
Mirvish, Gehry revise plans for triad of Toronto towers
A trio of mixed-use towers planned for an urban redevelopment project in Toronto has been redesigned by planners David Mirvish and Frank Gehry. The plan was announced last October but has recently been substantially revised.
| Jun 25, 2013
First look: Herzog & de Meuron's Jade Signature condo tower in Florida
Real estate developer Fortune International has released details of its new Jade Signature property, to be developed in Sunny Isles Beach near Miami. The luxury waterfront condo building will include 192 units in a 57-story building near high-end retail destinations and cultural venues.
| Jun 25, 2013
DC commission approves Gehry's redesign for Eisenhower memorial
Frank Gehry's updated for a new Dwight D. Eisenhower memorial in Washington, D.C., has been approved by the Eisenhower Memorial Commission, reports the Washington Post. The commission voted unanimously to approve the $110 million project, which has been gestating for 14 years.
