Following consistently increasing demand for design services throughout most of 2013, the Architecture Billings Index (ABI) has posted its first consecutive months of contraction since May and June of 2012.
As a leading economic indicator of construction activity, the ABI reflects the approximate nine to twelve month lead time between architecture billings and construction spending.
The American Institute of Architects (AIA) reported the December ABI score was 48.5, down from a mark of 49.8 in November. This score reflects a decrease in design services (any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings).
The new projects inquiry index was 59.2, up from the reading of 57.8 the previous month.
“What we thought last month was an isolated dip now bears closer examination to see what is causing the slowdown in demand for architectural services,” said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker, Hon. AIA, PhD. “It is possible that some of this can be attributed to the anxiety in the marketplace caused by the shutdown of the federal government, but it will be important to see how business conditions fare through the first quarter of the new year when we no longer have end of the year issues to deal with.”
Key December ABI highlights:
• Regional averages: West (53.2), South (51.2), Midwest (47.0), Northeast (42.8)
• Sector index breakdown: multi-family residential (53.8), mixed practice 51.0), commercial / industrial (47.1), institutional (44.8)
• Project inquiries index: 59.2
Note: The regional and sector categories are calculated as a 3-month moving average, whereas the index and inquiries are monthly numbers.
About the AIA Architecture Billings Index
The Architecture Billings Index (ABI), produced by the AIA Economics & Market Research Group, is a leading economic indicator that provides an approximately nine to twelve month glimpse into the future of nonresidential construction spending activity. The diffusion indexes contained in the full report are derived from a monthly “Work-on-the-Boards” survey that is sent to a panel of AIA member-owned firms.
Participants are asked whether their billings increased, decreased, or stayed the same in the month that just ended as compared to the prior month, and the results are then compiled into the ABI. These monthly results are also seasonally adjusted to allow for comparison to prior months. The monthly ABI index scores are centered around 50, with scores above 50 indicating an aggregate increase in billings, and scores below 50 indicating a decline. The regional and sector data are formulated using a three-month moving average.
More information on the ABI and the analysis of its relationship to construction activity can be found in the White Paper Architecture Billings as a Leading Indicator of Construction: Analysis of the Relationship Between a Billings Index and Construction Spending on the AIA website.
Related Stories
| Jul 18, 2013
Top Government Sector Architecture Firms [2013 Giants 300 Report]
Stantec, HOK, HDR top Building Design+Construction's 2013 ranking of the largest government sector architecture and architecture/engineering firms in the U.S.
| Jul 18, 2013
Do third-corridor designs actually work for healthcare environments?
A recent study of a nursing unit assessed whether the space's third corridor does what it was intended to do: reduce noise and distraction to patients and nursing staff.
| Jul 18, 2013
LEGO takes on the iconic Sydney Opera House
This September, LEGO will expand its LEGO Creator Expert series with a 2,989-brick model of the iconic Sydney Opera House.
| Jul 17, 2013
Top Multifamily Construction Firms [2013 Giants 300 Report]
Lend Lease, Clark Group, Balfour Beatty top Building Design+Construction's 2013 ranking of the largest multifamily contractors and construction management firms in the United States.
| Jul 17, 2013
Top Multifamily Engineering Firms [2013 Giants 300 Report]
STV, URS, AECOM top Building Design+Construction's 2013 ranking of the largest multifamily engineering and engineering/architecture firms in the United States.
| Jul 17, 2013
Top Multifamily Architecture Firms [2013 Giants 300 Report]
IBI Group, Niles Bolton, Perkins Eastman top Building Design+Construction's 2013 ranking of the largest multifamily architecture and architecture/engineering firms in the United States.
| Jul 17, 2013
CBRE recognizes nation's best green research projects
A rating system for comparative tenant energy use and a detailed evaluation of Energy Star energy management strategies are among the green research projects to be honored by commercial real estate giant CBRE Group.
| Jul 17, 2013
Should city parking space requirements be abolished?
Some cities are deliberately discouraging construction of new parking spaces by allowing the construction of buildings with a lower ratio of parking spaces to dwellings (as low as 0.75 spaces per residence).
| Jul 17, 2013
Retail store openings at five-year high
Analysis by RBC Capital Markets shows that U.S. retailers are planning to open 42,757 stores over the next 12 months, and some 83,700 locations over the next two years, both five-year highs.
| Jul 16, 2013
As the U.S. economy sputters back to life, contractors wait for the green light on projects [2013 Giants 300 Report]
There are enough positive indictors in the economy to justify greenlighting projects, but building owners and developers remain reluctant to pull the trigger.