Eight percent fewer homes will transact in 2014 than normal, purely due to student loan debt, according to analysis by Rick Palacios, Jr., and Ali Wolf of John Burns Real Estate Consulting.
In a new 30-page paper, the firm assesses the impact of student loans on home buying for households under the age of 40. Its conclusion: 414,000 transactions will be lost in 2014 due to student debt. At a typical price of $200,000, that equals $83 billion in lost volume.
Palacios and Wolf explain their methodology and findings:
The analysis was quite complicated and involved a few assumptions, but we believe it is conservative, primarily because we looked only at those under the age of 40 with student debt.
At a high level, the math is as follows:
• Student debt has ballooned from $241 billion to $1.1 trillion in just 11 years.
• 29 million of the 86 million people aged 20-39 have some student debt.
• Those 29 million individuals translate to 16.8 million households.
• Of the 16.8 million households, 5.9 million (or 35%) pay more than $250 per month in student loans, which inhibits at least $44,000 per year in mortgage capability for each of them.
• About 8% of the 20-39 age cohort usually buys a home each year, which would be 1.35 million transactions per year.
• Using previous academic literature as a benchmark for our own complicated calculation, we then estimated that today's purchase rate is reduced from the normal 8% depending on the level of student debt--ranging from 6.9% for those paying less than $100 per month in student loans to less than 1% for those paying over $1,300 per month. Other factors contribute to even less entry-level buying today.
While we applaud the increasing education, we need to realize that it comes with a cost known as student debt. We raised the red flag on student debt back in 2011 and continue to believe that this debt will delay homeownership for many, or at least require that they buy a less expensive home.
Related Stories
| Jan 17, 2012
Capital Engineering joins AECOM
With 160 employees based in Taipei and Kaohsiung, CEC specializes in environmental, water, hydraulic and land development engineering consulting services for clients in Taiwan's public and private sectors.
| Jan 17, 2012
SOM launches Los Angeles design studio
Expert team to join the firm's West Coast practice, focusing on innovative urban and environmentally sustainable design in Southern California
| Jan 16, 2012
2012 40 Under 40 applications due Friday, Jan. 20
Building Design+Construction's 40 Under 40 is open to AEC professionals from around the world who are under 40 years old, as of January 1, 2012.
| Jan 16, 2012
Mid-Continent Tower wins 25 Year Award from AIA Eastern Oklahoma
Designed by Dewberry, iconic tower defines Tulsa’s skyline.
| Jan 16, 2012
Suffolk completes construction on progressive operating suite
5,700 square-foot operating suite to be test bed for next generation of imaged-guided operating techniques.
| Jan 15, 2012
Hollister Construction Services oversees interior office fit-out for Harding Loevner
The work includes constructing open space areas, new conference, trading and training rooms, along with multiple kitchenettes.
| Jan 15, 2012
Smith Consulting Architects designs Flower Hill Promenade expansion in Del Mar, Calif.
The $22 million expansion includes a 75,000-square-foot, two-story retail/office building and a 397-car parking structure, along with parking and circulation improvements and new landscaping throughout.
| Jan 15, 2012
535 Madison Avenue achieves LEED Gold certification
Class-A commercial building meets sustainability requirements of LEED Program.
| Jan 12, 2012
CSHQA receives AIA Northwest & Pacific Region Merit Award for Idaho State Capitol restoration
After a century of service, use, and countless modifications which eroded the historical character of the building and grounds, the restoration brought the 200,000-sf building back to its former grandeur by restoring historical elements, preserving existing materials, and rehabilitating spaces for contemporary uses.
| Jan 12, 2012
Stellar earns construction industry's most prestigious safety award
Now widely accepted as the construction industry's standard measure of safety performance, the STEP awards were established in 1989 to evaluate and improve safety practices and recognize outstanding safety efforts.