Eight percent fewer homes will transact in 2014 than normal, purely due to student loan debt, according to analysis by Rick Palacios, Jr., and Ali Wolf of John Burns Real Estate Consulting.
In a new 30-page paper, the firm assesses the impact of student loans on home buying for households under the age of 40. Its conclusion: 414,000 transactions will be lost in 2014 due to student debt. At a typical price of $200,000, that equals $83 billion in lost volume.
Palacios and Wolf explain their methodology and findings:
The analysis was quite complicated and involved a few assumptions, but we believe it is conservative, primarily because we looked only at those under the age of 40 with student debt.
At a high level, the math is as follows:
• Student debt has ballooned from $241 billion to $1.1 trillion in just 11 years.
• 29 million of the 86 million people aged 20-39 have some student debt.
• Those 29 million individuals translate to 16.8 million households.
• Of the 16.8 million households, 5.9 million (or 35%) pay more than $250 per month in student loans, which inhibits at least $44,000 per year in mortgage capability for each of them.
• About 8% of the 20-39 age cohort usually buys a home each year, which would be 1.35 million transactions per year.
• Using previous academic literature as a benchmark for our own complicated calculation, we then estimated that today's purchase rate is reduced from the normal 8% depending on the level of student debt--ranging from 6.9% for those paying less than $100 per month in student loans to less than 1% for those paying over $1,300 per month. Other factors contribute to even less entry-level buying today.
While we applaud the increasing education, we need to realize that it comes with a cost known as student debt. We raised the red flag on student debt back in 2011 and continue to believe that this debt will delay homeownership for many, or at least require that they buy a less expensive home.
Related Stories
| Jan 26, 2012
Summit Design+Build completes law office in Chicago
Applegate & Thorne-Thomsen's new office suite features private offices, open office area, conference rooms, reception area, exposed wood beams and columns, and exposed brick.
| Jan 24, 2012
New iPad app ready for prime time
Siemens’ versatile application connects users to APOGEE BAS control and monitoring functions via wireless network connectivity. The application directly interacts with BACnet/IP and Siemens APOGEE P2 field panels.
| Jan 24, 2012
Vyhanek joins Thornton Tomasetti’s Kansas City office
Vyhanek will assemble a new MEP team in the Midwest to support Building Performance and Property Loss Consulting practices.
| Jan 24, 2012
U of M installs new lighting at Crisler Player Development Center
Energy efficient lighting installed at PDC reduce costs and improves player performance.
| Jan 24, 2012
Rockingham County Judicial Center receives USGBC Gold NC v.2.2
The Rockingham facility is the first judicial center in North Carolina to seek certification from the U.S. Green Building Council’s LEED Building rating system.
| Jan 19, 2012
LEED puts the 'Gold' in Riverside golden arches
McDonald's restaurant recognized for significant energy savings.
| Jan 19, 2012
Odebrecht and Braskem bring sustainable award to U.S. university students
The Odebrecht Award for sustainable development rewards future leaders in engineering and chemistry.
| Jan 19, 2012
BOKA Powell-designed facility at Texas A&M Bryan campus
The new facility provides programs for the Texas A&M Health Science Center, the Texas Brain and Spine Institute, Mary Crowley Cancer Research Centers, and Blinn College Allied Health programs.
| Jan 17, 2012
SOM Chicago wins competition to design China's Suzhou Center
The 75-level building is designed to accommodate a complex mixed-use program including office, service apartments, hotel and retail on a 37,000 sm site.
| Jan 17, 2012
FxFowle and CO Architects form joint venture
FxFowle and CO Architects creates a dynamic alliance built on a shared dedication to collaboration in process, innovation in programming, and excellence in design.