Eight percent fewer homes will transact in 2014 than normal, purely due to student loan debt, according to analysis by Rick Palacios, Jr., and Ali Wolf of John Burns Real Estate Consulting.
In a new 30-page paper, the firm assesses the impact of student loans on home buying for households under the age of 40. Its conclusion: 414,000 transactions will be lost in 2014 due to student debt. At a typical price of $200,000, that equals $83 billion in lost volume.
Palacios and Wolf explain their methodology and findings:
The analysis was quite complicated and involved a few assumptions, but we believe it is conservative, primarily because we looked only at those under the age of 40 with student debt.
At a high level, the math is as follows:
• Student debt has ballooned from $241 billion to $1.1 trillion in just 11 years.
• 29 million of the 86 million people aged 20-39 have some student debt.
• Those 29 million individuals translate to 16.8 million households.
• Of the 16.8 million households, 5.9 million (or 35%) pay more than $250 per month in student loans, which inhibits at least $44,000 per year in mortgage capability for each of them.
• About 8% of the 20-39 age cohort usually buys a home each year, which would be 1.35 million transactions per year.
• Using previous academic literature as a benchmark for our own complicated calculation, we then estimated that today's purchase rate is reduced from the normal 8% depending on the level of student debt--ranging from 6.9% for those paying less than $100 per month in student loans to less than 1% for those paying over $1,300 per month. Other factors contribute to even less entry-level buying today.
While we applaud the increasing education, we need to realize that it comes with a cost known as student debt. We raised the red flag on student debt back in 2011 and continue to believe that this debt will delay homeownership for many, or at least require that they buy a less expensive home.
Related Stories
| Dec 9, 2012
AIA: Laboratory design, building for breakthrough science
To earn 1.0 AIA/CES learning units, study the article carefully and take the exam.
| Dec 9, 2012
The owner’s perspective: high-rise buildings
Douglas Durst on the practicalities of development: “You must think about a building from the inside out.”
| Dec 9, 2012
Greenzone pop quiz
Greenbuild attendees share their thoughts with BD+C on the SAGE modular classroom.
| Dec 9, 2012
Modular classroom building makes the grade
SAGE modular classroom opens eyes, minds at Greenbuild 2012.
| Dec 9, 2012
14 great solutions
Welcome to the third installment of Building Design+Construction’s “Great Solutions,” highlighting 14 innovative technologies and products that you can put to work in your next project.
| Dec 9, 2012
AEC professionals cautiously optimistic about commercial construction in ’13
Most economists say the U.S. is slowly emerging from the Great Recession, a view that was confirmed to some extent by an exclusive survey of 498 BD+C subscribers whose views we sought on the commercial construction industry’s outlook on business prospects for 2013.
| Dec 7, 2012
Structural glazing sealant protects solar-rooftop stadium in Taiwan
Designers of the Kaohsiung World Games Main Stadium in Gaoxiong, Taiwan, powered by almost 9,000 rooftop solar panels, required an effective panel fixing design offering optimum energy transfer rate, plus thermal and weathertight performance. Dow Corning specialists recommended a four-sided structural sealant solution featuring Dow Corning 983 Structural Glazing Sealant.
| Dec 6, 2012
Ziegler Cooper names Soto as Director of Design, Broadens Design Capabilities
Soto will oversee design efforts, bringing a high level of quality and problem solving capabilities through active engagement with clients and studios firm wide.