Eight percent fewer homes will transact in 2014 than normal, purely due to student loan debt, according to analysis by Rick Palacios, Jr., and Ali Wolf of John Burns Real Estate Consulting.
In a new 30-page paper, the firm assesses the impact of student loans on home buying for households under the age of 40. Its conclusion: 414,000 transactions will be lost in 2014 due to student debt. At a typical price of $200,000, that equals $83 billion in lost volume.
Palacios and Wolf explain their methodology and findings:
The analysis was quite complicated and involved a few assumptions, but we believe it is conservative, primarily because we looked only at those under the age of 40 with student debt.
At a high level, the math is as follows:
• Student debt has ballooned from $241 billion to $1.1 trillion in just 11 years.
• 29 million of the 86 million people aged 20-39 have some student debt.
• Those 29 million individuals translate to 16.8 million households.
• Of the 16.8 million households, 5.9 million (or 35%) pay more than $250 per month in student loans, which inhibits at least $44,000 per year in mortgage capability for each of them.
• About 8% of the 20-39 age cohort usually buys a home each year, which would be 1.35 million transactions per year.
• Using previous academic literature as a benchmark for our own complicated calculation, we then estimated that today's purchase rate is reduced from the normal 8% depending on the level of student debt--ranging from 6.9% for those paying less than $100 per month in student loans to less than 1% for those paying over $1,300 per month. Other factors contribute to even less entry-level buying today.
While we applaud the increasing education, we need to realize that it comes with a cost known as student debt. We raised the red flag on student debt back in 2011 and continue to believe that this debt will delay homeownership for many, or at least require that they buy a less expensive home.
Related Stories
| Jan 3, 2013
Top BIM/VDC articles of 2011-2012
A compendium of BD+Cs top building information modeling and virtual design + construction articles from 2011-12.
| Jan 3, 2013
8 trends shaping today’s senior housing
The ranks of those age 65 and older are swelling by the thousands every day. Is there an opportunity for your firm in the seniors housing market?
| Jan 2, 2013
Trends Report: New facilities enhance the quality of campus life
Colleges and universities are building state-of-the-art student unions, dining halls, and other non-academic buildings to enrich the campus experience, boost enrollment, and stay competitive.
| Jan 2, 2013
M&A activity at U.S. AEC firms up slightly
Total mergers and acquisitions in the AEC industry hit 171 in 2012, up slight from the 169 deals in 2011.
| Jan 2, 2013
Global data center market to ‘slow’ to 14.3% this year
Total global investment in data centers is expected to slow down somewhat this year but still increase at a respectable 14.3%, according to DCD Intelligence.
| Jan 2, 2013
Construction jobs made gains in 2012, even with a slow Q4, says Gilbane report
The construction sector in the nine states with 50% of construction employment was up 169,000 jobs from February to September 2012, following a lost of 137,000 jobs from September 2011 to January 2012.
| Dec 21, 2012
ABI gains for fourth straight month
Positive business conditions for all building sectors.
| Dec 17, 2012
CSM Group names recipient of the CSM Architect Fellowship Grant
With the money from the grant, Harlow has chosen to use it entirely for the Chapter of American Institute of Architecture Student’s Freedom by Design Program at Andrews University.
