Eight percent fewer homes will transact in 2014 than normal, purely due to student loan debt, according to analysis by Rick Palacios, Jr., and Ali Wolf of John Burns Real Estate Consulting.
In a new 30-page paper, the firm assesses the impact of student loans on home buying for households under the age of 40. Its conclusion: 414,000 transactions will be lost in 2014 due to student debt. At a typical price of $200,000, that equals $83 billion in lost volume.
Palacios and Wolf explain their methodology and findings:
The analysis was quite complicated and involved a few assumptions, but we believe it is conservative, primarily because we looked only at those under the age of 40 with student debt.
At a high level, the math is as follows:
• Student debt has ballooned from $241 billion to $1.1 trillion in just 11 years.
• 29 million of the 86 million people aged 20-39 have some student debt.
• Those 29 million individuals translate to 16.8 million households.
• Of the 16.8 million households, 5.9 million (or 35%) pay more than $250 per month in student loans, which inhibits at least $44,000 per year in mortgage capability for each of them.
• About 8% of the 20-39 age cohort usually buys a home each year, which would be 1.35 million transactions per year.
• Using previous academic literature as a benchmark for our own complicated calculation, we then estimated that today's purchase rate is reduced from the normal 8% depending on the level of student debt--ranging from 6.9% for those paying less than $100 per month in student loans to less than 1% for those paying over $1,300 per month. Other factors contribute to even less entry-level buying today.
While we applaud the increasing education, we need to realize that it comes with a cost known as student debt. We raised the red flag on student debt back in 2011 and continue to believe that this debt will delay homeownership for many, or at least require that they buy a less expensive home.
Related Stories
Adaptive Reuse | Jul 12, 2024
Detroit’s Michigan Central Station, centerpiece of innovation hub, opens
The recently opened Michigan Central Station in Detroit is the centerpiece of a 30-acre technology and cultural hub that will include development of urban transportation solutions. The six-year adaptive reuse project of the 640,000 sf historic station, created by the same architect as New York’s Grand Central Station, is the latest sign of a reinvigorating Detroit.
University Buildings | Jul 11, 2024
3 considerations for designing healthy, adaptable student dining
Amanda Vigneau, IIDA, NCDIQ, LEED ID+C, Director, Shepley Bulfinch, shares three ways student dining facilities have evolved to match changes in student life.
Healthcare Facilities | Jul 11, 2024
New download: BD+C's 2024 Healthcare Annual Report
Welcome to Building Design+Construction’s 2024 Healthcare Annual Report. This free 66-page special report is our first-ever “state of the state” update on the $65 billion healthcare construction sector.
Transit Facilities | Jul 10, 2024
Historic Fresno train depot to be renovated for California high speed rail station project
A long-shuttered rail station in Fresno, Calif., will be renovated to serve as the city’s high speed rail (HSR) station as part of the California High-Speed Rail Authority system, the nation’s first high speed rail project. California’s HSR system will eventually link more than 800 miles of rail, served by up to 24 stations.
Government Buildings | Jul 8, 2024
GSA adopts new accessibility guidelines for federal properties
The U.S. General Services Administration (GSA) adopted a new rule with new accessibility guidelines for federal buildings. The rule establishes that pedestrian facilities in the public right-of-way are readily accessible to and usable by people with disabilities.
Office Buildings | Jul 8, 2024
Office vacancy peak of 22% to 28% forecasted for 2026
The work from home trend will continue to put pressure on the office real estate market, with peak vacancy of between 22% and 28% in 2026, according to a forecast by Moody’s.
Virtual Reality | Jul 8, 2024
Can a VR-enabled AEC firm transform your project?
With the aid of virtual reality and three-dimensional visualization technologies, designers, consultants, and their clients can envision a place as though the project were in a later stage.
Green | Jul 8, 2024
Global green building alliance releases guide for $35 trillion investment to achieve net zero, meet global energy transition goals
The international alliance of UK-based Building Research Establishment (BRE), the Green Building Council of Australia (GBCA), the Singapore Green Building Council (SGBC), the U.S. Green Building Council (USGBC), and the Alliance HQE-GBC France developed the guide, Financing Transformation: A Guide to Green Building for Green Bonds and Green Loans, to strengthen global cooperation between the finance and real estate sectors.
Codes and Standards | Jul 8, 2024
New York State building code update would ban fossil fuels in new buildings
New York’s Building Code Council is set to include the All-Electric Buildings Act in its 2025 code update. The Act would ban natural gas and other fossil fuels in new buildings.
AEC Tech Innovation | Jul 4, 2024
Caution competes with inevitability at conference exploring artificial intelligence for design and construction
Hosted by PSMJ, AEC Innovate in Boston found an AEC industry anxiously at the threshold of change.