Eight percent fewer homes will transact in 2014 than normal, purely due to student loan debt, according to analysis by Rick Palacios, Jr., and Ali Wolf of John Burns Real Estate Consulting.
In a new 30-page paper, the firm assesses the impact of student loans on home buying for households under the age of 40. Its conclusion: 414,000 transactions will be lost in 2014 due to student debt. At a typical price of $200,000, that equals $83 billion in lost volume.
Palacios and Wolf explain their methodology and findings:
The analysis was quite complicated and involved a few assumptions, but we believe it is conservative, primarily because we looked only at those under the age of 40 with student debt.
At a high level, the math is as follows:
• Student debt has ballooned from $241 billion to $1.1 trillion in just 11 years.
• 29 million of the 86 million people aged 20-39 have some student debt.
• Those 29 million individuals translate to 16.8 million households.
• Of the 16.8 million households, 5.9 million (or 35%) pay more than $250 per month in student loans, which inhibits at least $44,000 per year in mortgage capability for each of them.
• About 8% of the 20-39 age cohort usually buys a home each year, which would be 1.35 million transactions per year.
• Using previous academic literature as a benchmark for our own complicated calculation, we then estimated that today's purchase rate is reduced from the normal 8% depending on the level of student debt--ranging from 6.9% for those paying less than $100 per month in student loans to less than 1% for those paying over $1,300 per month. Other factors contribute to even less entry-level buying today.
While we applaud the increasing education, we need to realize that it comes with a cost known as student debt. We raised the red flag on student debt back in 2011 and continue to believe that this debt will delay homeownership for many, or at least require that they buy a less expensive home.
Related Stories
Geothermal Technology | Jul 29, 2024
Rochester, Minn., plans extensive geothermal network
The city of Rochester, Minn., home of the famed Mayo Clinic, is going big on geothermal networks. The city is constructing Thermal Energy Networks (TENs) that consist of ambient pipe loops connecting multiple buildings and delivering thermal heating and cooling energy via water-source heat pumps.
High-rise Construction | Jul 29, 2024
Safdie Architects’ Shanghai office tower features glass-enclosed corner garden that ascends the 35-story structure
Safdie Architects has announced the completion of LuOne Mixed-Use Complex—a business, retail, and entertainment development in the Luwan district of Shanghai, China. The mixed-use complex consists of an eight-level retail galleria, which opened in 2018, and a 35-story office tower, which recently reached completion.
Casinos | Jul 26, 2024
New luxury resort casino will be regional draw for Shreveport, Louisiana area
Live! Casino & Hotel Louisiana, the first land-based casino in the Shreveport-Bossier market, recently topped off. The $270+ project will serve as a regional destination for world-class gaming, dining, entertainment, and hotel amenities.
Smart Buildings | Jul 25, 2024
A Swiss startup devises an intelligent photovoltaic façade that tracks and moves with the sun
Zurich Soft Robotics says Solskin can reduce building energy consumption by up to 80% while producing up to 40% more electricity than comparable façade systems.
Codes and Standards | Jul 25, 2024
GSA and DOE select technologies to evaluate for commercial building decarbonization
The General Services Administration and the U.S. Department of Energy have selected 17 innovative building technologies to evaluate in real-world settings throughout GSA’s real estate portfolio.
Great Solutions | Jul 23, 2024
41 Great Solutions for architects, engineers, and contractors
AI ChatBots, ambient computing, floating MRIs, low-carbon cement, sunshine on demand, next-generation top-down construction. These and 35 other innovations make up our 2024 Great Solutions Report, which highlights fresh ideas and innovations from leading architecture, engineering, and construction firms.
Senior Living Design | Jul 23, 2024
The growing importance of cultural representation in senior living communities
Perkins Eastman architect Mwanzaa Brown reflects on the ties between architecture, interior design, and the history and heritage of a senior living community’s population.
MFPRO+ News | Jul 22, 2024
Miami luxury condominium tower will have more than 50,000 sf of amenities
Continuum Club & Residences, a new 32-story luxury condominium tower in the coveted North Bay Village of Miami will feature more than 50,000 sf of indoor and outdoor amenities. The program includes a waterfront restaurant, dining terraces with resident privileges, and a private dining room outdoor pavilion.
Healthcare Facilities | Jul 22, 2024
5 healthcare building sector trends for 2024-2025
Interactive patient care systems and trauma-informed design are among two emerging trends in the U.S. healthcare building sector, according to BD+C's 2024 Healthcare Annual Report (free download; short registration required).
MFPRO+ News | Jul 22, 2024
6 multifamily WAFX 2024 Prize winners
Over 30 projects tackling global challenges such as climate change, public health, and social inequality have been named winners of the World Architecture Festival’s WAFX Awards.