Eight percent fewer homes will transact in 2014 than normal, purely due to student loan debt, according to analysis by Rick Palacios, Jr., and Ali Wolf of John Burns Real Estate Consulting.
In a new 30-page paper, the firm assesses the impact of student loans on home buying for households under the age of 40. Its conclusion: 414,000 transactions will be lost in 2014 due to student debt. At a typical price of $200,000, that equals $83 billion in lost volume.
Palacios and Wolf explain their methodology and findings:
The analysis was quite complicated and involved a few assumptions, but we believe it is conservative, primarily because we looked only at those under the age of 40 with student debt.
At a high level, the math is as follows:
• Student debt has ballooned from $241 billion to $1.1 trillion in just 11 years.
• 29 million of the 86 million people aged 20-39 have some student debt.
• Those 29 million individuals translate to 16.8 million households.
• Of the 16.8 million households, 5.9 million (or 35%) pay more than $250 per month in student loans, which inhibits at least $44,000 per year in mortgage capability for each of them.
• About 8% of the 20-39 age cohort usually buys a home each year, which would be 1.35 million transactions per year.
• Using previous academic literature as a benchmark for our own complicated calculation, we then estimated that today's purchase rate is reduced from the normal 8% depending on the level of student debt--ranging from 6.9% for those paying less than $100 per month in student loans to less than 1% for those paying over $1,300 per month. Other factors contribute to even less entry-level buying today.
While we applaud the increasing education, we need to realize that it comes with a cost known as student debt. We raised the red flag on student debt back in 2011 and continue to believe that this debt will delay homeownership for many, or at least require that they buy a less expensive home.
Related Stories
| Sep 11, 2013
Inaugural BUILDINGChicago/Greening the Heartland Expo & Conference draws attendees from 27 states
More than 500 attendees from 27 states attended the inaugural BUILDINGChicago/Greening the Heartland Conference, held September 9-11, at the Holiday Inn Chicago Mart Plaza.
| Sep 10, 2013
The new medical office building: 7 things to know about today’s outpatient clinic
Regulatory pressures, economic constraints, and emerging technologies are transforming healthcare. Learn how Building Teams are responding with efficient, appealing, boundary-blurring outpatient buildings.
| Sep 6, 2013
Public Architecture's Day Labor Station: Just the type of 'great idea' we're looking for in the $5,000 Vision U40 competition
Thinking about competing in BD+C's Vision U40 program at next month's U40 Leadership Summit? Here's a good example of the kind of "great idea" we're looking for.
| Sep 6, 2013
U40 Summit featured speaker: Arthur Gensler on how to build a world-class AEC practice
Gensler, founder of the world’s largest architecture firm, will talk about the role of the architect in society, the impact of great design, and the practicalities of starting and running a practice, and will offer advice for today’s young design and construction professionals.
| Sep 4, 2013
Augmented reality: 12 applications for design and construction professionals
Building Design+Construction reached out to AEC professionals who have studied and applied augmented reality and asked them to pinpoint applications that are ripe for the technology. Here’s what they had to offer.
| Sep 4, 2013
Augmented reality goes mainstream: 12 applications for design and construction firms
Thanks to inexpensive mobile devices and increasingly advanced software apps, Building Teams are finally able to bring their BIM models to life on the job site.
| Sep 4, 2013
K-12 school design that pays off for students
More and more educators are being influenced by the Reggio Emilia approach to pedagogy, with its mantra of “environment as the third teacher”—an approach that gives Building Teams a responsibility to pay even closer attention to the special needs of today’s schools.
| Sep 4, 2013
Smart building technology: Talking results at the BUILDINGChicago/ Greening the Heartland show
Recent advancements in technology are allowing owners to connect with facilities as never before, leveraging existing automation systems to achieve cost-effective energy improvements. This BUILDINGChicago presentation will feature Procter & Gamble’s smart building management program.
| Sep 4, 2013
Last chance to pre-register for BUILDINGChicago/Greening the Heartland Conference at 20% savings
Attendees of the BUILDINGChicago/Greening the Heartland Expo and Conference can still save 20% off the at-site registration fee by registering online in these final days before the event opens on September 9 and concludes on September 11.
| Sep 3, 2013
'School in a box' project will place school in San Diego public library
Thinking outside the box, LPA Inc. is designing a school inside a box. With an emphasis on three E’s—Engage, Educate, and Empower—e3 Civic High is now being constructed on the sixth and seventh floors of a public library in downtown San Diego. Library patrons will be able to see into the school via glass elevators, but will not have physical access to the school.