Eight percent fewer homes will transact in 2014 than normal, purely due to student loan debt, according to analysis by Rick Palacios, Jr., and Ali Wolf of John Burns Real Estate Consulting.
In a new 30-page paper, the firm assesses the impact of student loans on home buying for households under the age of 40. Its conclusion: 414,000 transactions will be lost in 2014 due to student debt. At a typical price of $200,000, that equals $83 billion in lost volume.
Palacios and Wolf explain their methodology and findings:
The analysis was quite complicated and involved a few assumptions, but we believe it is conservative, primarily because we looked only at those under the age of 40 with student debt.
At a high level, the math is as follows:
• Student debt has ballooned from $241 billion to $1.1 trillion in just 11 years.
• 29 million of the 86 million people aged 20-39 have some student debt.
• Those 29 million individuals translate to 16.8 million households.
• Of the 16.8 million households, 5.9 million (or 35%) pay more than $250 per month in student loans, which inhibits at least $44,000 per year in mortgage capability for each of them.
• About 8% of the 20-39 age cohort usually buys a home each year, which would be 1.35 million transactions per year.
• Using previous academic literature as a benchmark for our own complicated calculation, we then estimated that today's purchase rate is reduced from the normal 8% depending on the level of student debt--ranging from 6.9% for those paying less than $100 per month in student loans to less than 1% for those paying over $1,300 per month. Other factors contribute to even less entry-level buying today.
While we applaud the increasing education, we need to realize that it comes with a cost known as student debt. We raised the red flag on student debt back in 2011 and continue to believe that this debt will delay homeownership for many, or at least require that they buy a less expensive home.
Related Stories
| Sep 27, 2013
ASHRAE/IES publish first standard focused on commissioning process
ANSI/ASHRAE/IES Standard 202, Commissioning Process for Buildings and Systems, identifies the minimum acceptable commissioning process for buildings and systems as described in ASHRAE’s Guideline 0-2005, The Commissioning Process. Standard 202 is ASHRAE’s first standard focused on the commissioning process.
| Sep 26, 2013
6 ways to maximize home-field advantage in sports venue design
Home-field advantage can play a significant role in game outcomes. Here are ways AEC firms can help create the conditions that draw big crowds, energize the home team to perform better, and disrupt visiting players.
| Sep 26, 2013
Literature review affirms benefits of daylighting, architectural glazing
The use of glass as a building material positively impacts learning, healing, productivity and well-being, according to a white paper published by Guardian Industries and the University of Michigan Taubman College of Architecture and Urban Planning. The findings highlight the significant influence daylighting and outside views have on employees, workers, students, consumers and patients.
| Sep 26, 2013
Mobilizing your job site to achieve a paperless project: fact or fiction?
True mobility in the field has rapidly evolved from lock-box kiosks on each floor to laptops on rolling carts to tablets and iPads loaded with drawings sets stored in the cloud. And WiFi-ready job sites have gone from “nice to have” to “must have” status in just a little over a year.
| Sep 26, 2013
Leading in the face of change
As AEC firms navigate toward an uncertain future, the most effective leaders are those who eagerly adapt to change. Here are three attitudes that drive leaders who are of most value to their firms.
| Sep 23, 2013
The art of rewarding employees
What’s the best way to reward those employees who go the extra mile, particularly when it’s not always feasible to give large financial bonuses? According to author and “recognition expert” Dr. Bob Nelson, the most effective employee rewards are also the least expensive.
| Sep 23, 2013
Six-acre Essex Crossing development set to transform vacant New York property
A six-acre parcel on the Lower East Side of New York City, vacant since tenements were torn down in 1967, will be the site of the new Essex Crossing mixed-use development. The product of a compromise between Mayor Michael Bloomberg and various interested community groups, the complex will include ~1,000 apartments.
| Sep 20, 2013
August housing starts reveal multifamily still healthy but single-family stagnating
Peter Muoio, Ph.D., senior principal and economist with Auction.com Research, says the Census Bureau's August Housing Starts data released yesterday hints at improvements in the single-family sector with multifamily slowing down.
| Sep 19, 2013
What we can learn from the world’s greenest buildings
Renowned green building author, Jerry Yudelson, offers five valuable lessons for designers, contractors, and building owners, based on a study of 55 high-performance projects from around the world.
| Sep 19, 2013
6 emerging energy-management glazing technologies
Phase-change materials, electrochromic glass, and building-integrated PVs are among the breakthrough glazing technologies that are taking energy performance to a new level.