Eight percent fewer homes will transact in 2014 than normal, purely due to student loan debt, according to analysis by Rick Palacios, Jr., and Ali Wolf of John Burns Real Estate Consulting.
In a new 30-page paper, the firm assesses the impact of student loans on home buying for households under the age of 40. Its conclusion: 414,000 transactions will be lost in 2014 due to student debt. At a typical price of $200,000, that equals $83 billion in lost volume.
Palacios and Wolf explain their methodology and findings:
The analysis was quite complicated and involved a few assumptions, but we believe it is conservative, primarily because we looked only at those under the age of 40 with student debt.
At a high level, the math is as follows:
• Student debt has ballooned from $241 billion to $1.1 trillion in just 11 years.
• 29 million of the 86 million people aged 20-39 have some student debt.
• Those 29 million individuals translate to 16.8 million households.
• Of the 16.8 million households, 5.9 million (or 35%) pay more than $250 per month in student loans, which inhibits at least $44,000 per year in mortgage capability for each of them.
• About 8% of the 20-39 age cohort usually buys a home each year, which would be 1.35 million transactions per year.
• Using previous academic literature as a benchmark for our own complicated calculation, we then estimated that today's purchase rate is reduced from the normal 8% depending on the level of student debt--ranging from 6.9% for those paying less than $100 per month in student loans to less than 1% for those paying over $1,300 per month. Other factors contribute to even less entry-level buying today.
While we applaud the increasing education, we need to realize that it comes with a cost known as student debt. We raised the red flag on student debt back in 2011 and continue to believe that this debt will delay homeownership for many, or at least require that they buy a less expensive home.
Related Stories
Multifamily Housing | Nov 15, 2017
6 noteworthy multifamily developments: artists housing, tech lofts, resort-style senior living
These recently completed projects represent emerging trends and design innovations in the multifamily sector.
Architects | Nov 9, 2017
AECOM and Van Alen Institute announce four Urban SOS® 2017 finalists with bold ideas for creating more equitable cities
Multidisciplinary student teams were challenged to redefine the traditional “hour city” radius, providing broader access to opportunity.
Multifamily Housing | Nov 8, 2017
No place like home: LA’s The Six provides permanent supportive housing for veterans
The 52-unit development gives hope and dignity to homeless or disabled veterans and others in need.
Healthcare Facilities | Nov 6, 2017
Design isn’t enough to foster collaboration in healthcare and research spaces
A new Perkins Eastman white paper finds limited employee interaction at NYU Winthrop Hospital, a year after it opened.
Architects | Nov 6, 2017
How to start a negotiation: Begin as you mean to continue
How you start a negotiation often will determine where you end up, writes negotiation and mediation expert Brenda Radmacher.
Giants 400 | Nov 3, 2017
Top 25 military architecture firms
Jacobs, Michael Baker Intl., and HDR top BD+C’s ranking of the nation’s largest military sector architecture and AE firms, as reported in the 2017 Giants 300 Report.
Engineers | Nov 2, 2017
CannonDesign expands its presence in Colorado with BWG acquisition
Future mergers could be in the offing.
Giants 400 | Nov 1, 2017
Top 35 industrial architecture firms
Jacobs, Stantec, and BRPH top BD+C’s ranking of the nation’s largest industrial sector architecture and AE firms, as reported in the 2017 Giants 300 Report.
K-12 Schools | Oct 31, 2017
Exploring empathy in architecture: Put yourself in your student’s shoes
People are enigmatic and inherently complex, which can make it difficult to design for a larger population.
Architects | Oct 31, 2017
AIA selects recipients for the 2017 Innovation Awards
The program honors projects that highlight collaboration between design and construction teams to create better process efficiencies and overall costs savings.