Eight percent fewer homes will transact in 2014 than normal, purely due to student loan debt, according to analysis by Rick Palacios, Jr., and Ali Wolf of John Burns Real Estate Consulting.
In a new 30-page paper, the firm assesses the impact of student loans on home buying for households under the age of 40. Its conclusion: 414,000 transactions will be lost in 2014 due to student debt. At a typical price of $200,000, that equals $83 billion in lost volume.
Palacios and Wolf explain their methodology and findings:
The analysis was quite complicated and involved a few assumptions, but we believe it is conservative, primarily because we looked only at those under the age of 40 with student debt.
At a high level, the math is as follows:
• Student debt has ballooned from $241 billion to $1.1 trillion in just 11 years.
• 29 million of the 86 million people aged 20-39 have some student debt.
• Those 29 million individuals translate to 16.8 million households.
• Of the 16.8 million households, 5.9 million (or 35%) pay more than $250 per month in student loans, which inhibits at least $44,000 per year in mortgage capability for each of them.
• About 8% of the 20-39 age cohort usually buys a home each year, which would be 1.35 million transactions per year.
• Using previous academic literature as a benchmark for our own complicated calculation, we then estimated that today's purchase rate is reduced from the normal 8% depending on the level of student debt--ranging from 6.9% for those paying less than $100 per month in student loans to less than 1% for those paying over $1,300 per month. Other factors contribute to even less entry-level buying today.
While we applaud the increasing education, we need to realize that it comes with a cost known as student debt. We raised the red flag on student debt back in 2011 and continue to believe that this debt will delay homeownership for many, or at least require that they buy a less expensive home.
Related Stories
Reconstruction & Renovation | Dec 21, 2017
Interactive map includes detailed information on historic New York City buildings
The New York City Landmarks Preservation Commission launched a new, enhanced version of its interactive map, Discover NYC Landmarks.
High-rise Construction | Dec 20, 2017
Another record year for high-rise construction
More than 140 skyscrapers were completed across the globe this year, including 15 supertall towers.
Game Changers | Dec 20, 2017
Urban farms can help plant seeds for cities’ growth around them
Urban farms have been impacting cities’ agribusiness—and, on some cases, their redevelopment—for decades.
Market Data | Dec 20, 2017
Architecture billings upturn shows broad strength
The American Institute of Architects (AIA) reported the November ABI score was 55.0, up from a score of 51.7 in the previous month.
Public Health Labs | Dec 19, 2017
10 takeaways from SmithGroup’s ‘lab of the future’ initiative
The LAB2050 initiative digs into the scientific trends, technologies, and economics that will shape tomorrow’s research laboratory environments.
Office Buildings | Dec 19, 2017
How do we measure human performance, and what does it mean for the workplace?
There are many new tools and methods that are beginning to look more comprehensively to evaluate organizational well-being.
Sports and Recreational Facilities | Dec 18, 2017
Canada’s newest funicular makes Edmonton’s largest green space more accessible
The incline elevator is located in downtown Edmonton and was publicly funded.
Sponsored | Building Team | Dec 12, 2017
3 tips to address the top causes of budget overruns
The most cited issues are communication breakdowns, inadequate fees for the work provided, and unrealistic deadlines or schedules.
Multifamily Housing | Dec 12, 2017
Call for technical experts: Dog wash station design
The editors of Multifamily Design + Construction magazine need your expertise.
Government Buildings | Dec 11, 2017
Is this the world’s most humane prison?
The C.F. Møller-designed prison’s architecture supports the inmates’ and staff’s mental and physical well-being.