Eight percent fewer homes will transact in 2014 than normal, purely due to student loan debt, according to analysis by Rick Palacios, Jr., and Ali Wolf of John Burns Real Estate Consulting.
In a new 30-page paper, the firm assesses the impact of student loans on home buying for households under the age of 40. Its conclusion: 414,000 transactions will be lost in 2014 due to student debt. At a typical price of $200,000, that equals $83 billion in lost volume.
Palacios and Wolf explain their methodology and findings:
The analysis was quite complicated and involved a few assumptions, but we believe it is conservative, primarily because we looked only at those under the age of 40 with student debt.
At a high level, the math is as follows:
• Student debt has ballooned from $241 billion to $1.1 trillion in just 11 years.
• 29 million of the 86 million people aged 20-39 have some student debt.
• Those 29 million individuals translate to 16.8 million households.
• Of the 16.8 million households, 5.9 million (or 35%) pay more than $250 per month in student loans, which inhibits at least $44,000 per year in mortgage capability for each of them.
• About 8% of the 20-39 age cohort usually buys a home each year, which would be 1.35 million transactions per year.
• Using previous academic literature as a benchmark for our own complicated calculation, we then estimated that today's purchase rate is reduced from the normal 8% depending on the level of student debt--ranging from 6.9% for those paying less than $100 per month in student loans to less than 1% for those paying over $1,300 per month. Other factors contribute to even less entry-level buying today.
While we applaud the increasing education, we need to realize that it comes with a cost known as student debt. We raised the red flag on student debt back in 2011 and continue to believe that this debt will delay homeownership for many, or at least require that they buy a less expensive home.
Related Stories
Architects | Apr 21, 2022
A conversation with architect Robert A.M. Stern
The architect Robert A.M. Stern discusses his newly published memoir that touches on his childhood in New York and 50-plus-year career.
Building Team | Apr 20, 2022
White House works with state, local governments to bolster building performance standards
The former head of the U.S. Green Building Council says the Biden Administration’s formation of the National Building Performance Standards Coalition is a “tremendous” step in the right direction to raise building performance standards in the U.S.
Market Data | Apr 20, 2022
Pace of demand for design services rapidly accelerates
Demand for design services in March expanded sharply from February according to a new report today from The American Institute of Architects (AIA).
Multifamily Housing | Apr 20, 2022
A Frankfurt tower gives residents greenery-framed views
In Frankfurt, Germany, the 27-floor EDEN tower boasts an exterior “living wall system”: 186,000 plants that cover about 20 percent of the building’s facade.
AEC Tech | Apr 19, 2022
VDC maturity and the key to driving better, more predictable outcomes
While more stakeholders across the AEC value chain embrace the concept of virtual design and construction, what is driving the vastly different results that organizations achieve? The answer lies within an assessment of VDC maturity.
Healthcare Facilities | Apr 19, 2022
6 trends to watch in healthcare design
As the healthcare landscape continues to evolve, IMEG’s healthcare leaders from across the country are seeing several emerging trends that are poised to have wide-ranging impacts on facility design and construction. Following are six of the trends and strategies they expect to become more commonplace in 2022 and the years to come.
Energy-Efficient Design | Apr 19, 2022
A prefab second skin can make old apartments net zero
A German startup is offering a new way for old buildings to potentially reach net-zero status: adding a prefabricated second skin.
Concrete Technology | Apr 19, 2022
SGH’s Applied Science & Research Center achieves ISO 17025 accreditation for concrete testing procedures
Simpson Gumpertz & Heger’s (SGH) Applied Science & Research Center recently received ISO/IEC17025 accreditation from the American Association for Laboratory Accreditation (A2LA) for several concrete testing methods.
Senior Living Design | Apr 19, 2022
Affordable housing for L.A. veterans and low-income seniors built on former parking lot site
The Howard and Irene Levine Senior Community, designed by KFA Architecture for Mercy Housing of California, provides badly needed housing for Los Angeles veterans and low-income seniors
Sponsored | BD+C University Course | Apr 19, 2022
Multi-story building systems and selection criteria
This course outlines the attributes, functions, benefits, limits, and acoustic qualities of composite deck slabs. It reviews the three primary types of composite systems that represent the full range of long-span composite floor systems and examines the criteria for their selection, design, and engineering.
