Associated Builders and Contractors' (ABC) Construction Confidence Index (CCI) indicates that contractor confidence will continue to rise in the first half of 2015. The diffusion index measures forward-looking construction industry expectations in sales, profit margins and staffing levels with readings above 50 indicating growth.
In summary, first half index readings are as follows:
- Sales expectations rose from 67.3 to 69.4;
- Profit margin expectations were up from 61.0 to 62.9;
- Staffing level intentions dipped slightly from 66.3 to 66.2.
Most expect that sales will continue to expand and profit margins will widen further. ABC's weighted diffusion index for profit margins is now approaching the highest reading in the index's three-year history. The sales expectation reading is even more optimistic with nearly three in four respondents expecting an increase in sales. While the rate of new hires will continue to be brisk, the pace of hiring is not expected to accelerate over the next six months due in large part to a lack of available skilled labor.
"The recovery continues and is now in its seventh year, but there is plenty of reason for concern with respect to the U.S. economy," said ABC Chief Economist Anirban Basu. "Financial markets have been jittery, the global economy has been slowing and Federal Reserve policy has become less predictable and more confusing. While U.S. economic expansion continues to be led by growth in consumer outlays, in part due to extraordinarily low interest rates, nonresidential construction spending growth has become an important supporting actor. Nonresidential spending, including on factories, hotels, office buildings and distribution centers, has continued to climb in the face of more readily available financing, lower retail and office vacancy rates and rising hotel occupancy rates.
"Though the U.S. economy refuses to boom, the pace of growth has been enough to allow the average contractor to secure more work at higher margins," said Basu. "Interestingly, the pace of hiring is not set to accelerate, which may be a partial reflection of the lack of appropriately skilled construction workers available for hire. The expectation is for construction compensation costs to continue to rise given expanding skills shortages, but apparently not by enough to preclude steadily expanding margins."
"While the decline in commodity prices has helped to slow construction in parts of the country, including in portions of Texas, Oklahoma and North Dakota, low fuel prices have induced faster investment elsewhere, including in the U.S. auto industry," said Basu. "The result appears to be that the average construction decision maker is more confident than six months ago when commodity prices were higher. A stronger U.S. dollar has served to suppress U.S. export growth, however, and business investment growth remains mediocre by historic standards. The implication is that the U.S. economy is not poised to break out anytime soon, and that stakeholders can continue to expect frustratingly unexceptional growth close to 2 to 2.5%."
To read more about the latest CCI, click here.
Related Stories
| Dec 27, 2011
Ground broken for adaptive reuse project
Located on the Garden State Parkway, the master-planned project initially includes the conversion of a 114-year-old, 365,000-square-foot, six-story warehouse building into 361 loft-style apartments, and the creation of a three-level parking facility.
| Dec 27, 2011
Nova completes $60M Clearwater Conference Center
Comprising an entire city block, the 450,000 sq. ft. facility features over 400 meeting rooms, six theaters, a full-service health spa, complete with an indoor running track, and a commercial kitchen that can efficiently accommodate over 1,000 diners
| Dec 27, 2011
BD+C's Under 40 Leadership Summit update
The two-day Under 40 Leadership Summit continued with a Leadership Style interactive presentation; Great Solutions presentations from Under 40 attendees; the Owner’s Perspective panel discussion; and the Blue Ocean Strategy presentation.
| Dec 27, 2011
Suffolk Construction celebrates raising of Boston Tea Party Ships & Museum cupola
Topping off ceremony held on 238th Anniversary of Boston Tea Party.
| Dec 27, 2011
State of the data center 2011
Advances in technology, an increased reliance on the Internet and social media as well as an increased focus on energy management initiatives have had a significant impact on the data center world.
| Dec 27, 2011
USGBC’s Center for Green Schools releases Best of Green Schools 2011
Recipient schools and regions from across the nation - from K-12 to higher education - were recognized for a variety of sustainable, cost-cutting measures, including energy conservation, record numbers of LEED certified buildings and collaborative platforms and policies to green U.S. school infrastructure.
| Dec 21, 2011
DOE report details finance options for PV systems in schools
The report examines the two primary types of ownership models used to obtain PV installations for school administrators to use in selecting the best option for deploying solar technologies in their districts.
| Dec 21, 2011
AIA Chicago & AIA Chicago Foundation 2011 Dubin Family Young Architect Award announced
The Dubin Family Young Architect Award is bestowed annually and recognizes excellence in ability and exceptional contributions by a Chicago architect between the ages of 25 and 39.
| Dec 21, 2011
Few silver linings for construction in 2012
On the brighter side, nearly half of respondents (49.7%) said their firms were in at least “good” financial health, and four-fifths (80.2%) said their companies would at least hold steady in revenue in 2012.
| Dec 21, 2011
BBI key to Philly high-rise renovation
The 200,000 sf building was recently outfitted with a new HVAC system and a state-of-the-art window retrofitting system.