Associated Builders and Contractors' (ABC) Construction Confidence Index (CCI) indicates that contractor confidence will continue to rise in the first half of 2015. The diffusion index measures forward-looking construction industry expectations in sales, profit margins and staffing levels with readings above 50 indicating growth.
In summary, first half index readings are as follows:
- Sales expectations rose from 67.3 to 69.4;
- Profit margin expectations were up from 61.0 to 62.9;
- Staffing level intentions dipped slightly from 66.3 to 66.2.
Most expect that sales will continue to expand and profit margins will widen further. ABC's weighted diffusion index for profit margins is now approaching the highest reading in the index's three-year history. The sales expectation reading is even more optimistic with nearly three in four respondents expecting an increase in sales. While the rate of new hires will continue to be brisk, the pace of hiring is not expected to accelerate over the next six months due in large part to a lack of available skilled labor.
"The recovery continues and is now in its seventh year, but there is plenty of reason for concern with respect to the U.S. economy," said ABC Chief Economist Anirban Basu. "Financial markets have been jittery, the global economy has been slowing and Federal Reserve policy has become less predictable and more confusing. While U.S. economic expansion continues to be led by growth in consumer outlays, in part due to extraordinarily low interest rates, nonresidential construction spending growth has become an important supporting actor. Nonresidential spending, including on factories, hotels, office buildings and distribution centers, has continued to climb in the face of more readily available financing, lower retail and office vacancy rates and rising hotel occupancy rates.
"Though the U.S. economy refuses to boom, the pace of growth has been enough to allow the average contractor to secure more work at higher margins," said Basu. "Interestingly, the pace of hiring is not set to accelerate, which may be a partial reflection of the lack of appropriately skilled construction workers available for hire. The expectation is for construction compensation costs to continue to rise given expanding skills shortages, but apparently not by enough to preclude steadily expanding margins."
"While the decline in commodity prices has helped to slow construction in parts of the country, including in portions of Texas, Oklahoma and North Dakota, low fuel prices have induced faster investment elsewhere, including in the U.S. auto industry," said Basu. "The result appears to be that the average construction decision maker is more confident than six months ago when commodity prices were higher. A stronger U.S. dollar has served to suppress U.S. export growth, however, and business investment growth remains mediocre by historic standards. The implication is that the U.S. economy is not poised to break out anytime soon, and that stakeholders can continue to expect frustratingly unexceptional growth close to 2 to 2.5%."
To read more about the latest CCI, click here.
Related Stories
| Jan 15, 2012
Smith Consulting Architects designs Flower Hill Promenade expansion in Del Mar, Calif.
The $22 million expansion includes a 75,000-square-foot, two-story retail/office building and a 397-car parking structure, along with parking and circulation improvements and new landscaping throughout.
| Jan 15, 2012
535 Madison Avenue achieves LEED Gold certification
Class-A commercial building meets sustainability requirements of LEED Program.
| Jan 12, 2012
CSHQA receives AIA Northwest & Pacific Region Merit Award for Idaho State Capitol restoration
After a century of service, use, and countless modifications which eroded the historical character of the building and grounds, the restoration brought the 200,000-sf building back to its former grandeur by restoring historical elements, preserving existing materials, and rehabilitating spaces for contemporary uses.
| Jan 12, 2012
Stellar earns construction industry's most prestigious safety award
Now widely accepted as the construction industry's standard measure of safety performance, the STEP awards were established in 1989 to evaluate and improve safety practices and recognize outstanding safety efforts.
| Jan 12, 2012
Building independence: New take on female power
Memoir explores historic engineering project, women's empowerment era.
| Jan 12, 2012
3M takes part in Better Buildings Challenge
As a partner in the challenge, 3M has committed to reduce energy use by 25% in 78 of its plants, encompassing nearly 38 million-sf of building space.
| Jan 11, 2012
DOE announces guide for 50% more energy efficient retail buildings
The 50% AEDG series provides a practical approach for designers and builders of retail stores, and other major commercial building types, to achieve 50% energy savings compared to the building energy code used in many parts of the nation.
| Jan 11, 2012
Mortenson starts construction of Rim Rock Wind Project
Renewable energy contractor to build 189-megawatt wind project in Sunburst, Mont.
| Jan 9, 2012
Shawmut appoints Les Hiscoe COO and EVP
In his new role, Hiscoe will focus on developing the Company’s field services divisions; national business in retail, hospitality, gaming, and sports venues; Tri-State business in academic and healthcare; sales and marketing; and human resources
| Jan 9, 2012
Thornton Tomasetti acquires green consulting firm Fore Solutions
International engineering firm launches new building sustainability practice.