Associated Builders and Contractors' (ABC) Construction Confidence Index (CCI) indicates that contractor confidence will continue to rise in the first half of 2015. The diffusion index measures forward-looking construction industry expectations in sales, profit margins and staffing levels with readings above 50 indicating growth.
In summary, first half index readings are as follows:
- Sales expectations rose from 67.3 to 69.4;
- Profit margin expectations were up from 61.0 to 62.9;
- Staffing level intentions dipped slightly from 66.3 to 66.2.
Most expect that sales will continue to expand and profit margins will widen further. ABC's weighted diffusion index for profit margins is now approaching the highest reading in the index's three-year history. The sales expectation reading is even more optimistic with nearly three in four respondents expecting an increase in sales. While the rate of new hires will continue to be brisk, the pace of hiring is not expected to accelerate over the next six months due in large part to a lack of available skilled labor.
"The recovery continues and is now in its seventh year, but there is plenty of reason for concern with respect to the U.S. economy," said ABC Chief Economist Anirban Basu. "Financial markets have been jittery, the global economy has been slowing and Federal Reserve policy has become less predictable and more confusing. While U.S. economic expansion continues to be led by growth in consumer outlays, in part due to extraordinarily low interest rates, nonresidential construction spending growth has become an important supporting actor. Nonresidential spending, including on factories, hotels, office buildings and distribution centers, has continued to climb in the face of more readily available financing, lower retail and office vacancy rates and rising hotel occupancy rates.
"Though the U.S. economy refuses to boom, the pace of growth has been enough to allow the average contractor to secure more work at higher margins," said Basu. "Interestingly, the pace of hiring is not set to accelerate, which may be a partial reflection of the lack of appropriately skilled construction workers available for hire. The expectation is for construction compensation costs to continue to rise given expanding skills shortages, but apparently not by enough to preclude steadily expanding margins."
"While the decline in commodity prices has helped to slow construction in parts of the country, including in portions of Texas, Oklahoma and North Dakota, low fuel prices have induced faster investment elsewhere, including in the U.S. auto industry," said Basu. "The result appears to be that the average construction decision maker is more confident than six months ago when commodity prices were higher. A stronger U.S. dollar has served to suppress U.S. export growth, however, and business investment growth remains mediocre by historic standards. The implication is that the U.S. economy is not poised to break out anytime soon, and that stakeholders can continue to expect frustratingly unexceptional growth close to 2 to 2.5%."
To read more about the latest CCI, click here.
Related Stories
| Apr 24, 2014
Unbuilt and Famous: LEGO releases box set of Bjarke Ingels' LEGO museum
LEGO Architecture has created a box set that customers can use to build replicas of the LEGO Museum, which is not yet built in real life. The museum, designed by the Bjarke Ingels Group, will commemorate the history of LEGO.
| Apr 23, 2014
Ahead of the crowd: How architects can utilize crowdsourcing for project planning
Advanced methods of data collection, applied both prior to design and after opening, are bringing a new focus to the entire planning process.
| Apr 23, 2014
Developers change gears at Atlantic Yards after high-rise modular proves difficult
At 32 stories, the B2 residential tower at Atlantic Yards has been widely lauded as a bellwether for modular construction. But only five floors have been completed in 18 months.
| Apr 23, 2014
Experimental bot transfers CAD plans onto construction sites
The Archibot is intended to take technical data and translate it into full-scale physical markings on construction sites.
| Apr 23, 2014
Mean and Green: Top 10 green building projects for 2014 [slideshow]
The American Institute of Architects' Committee on the Environment has selected the top ten examples of sustainable architecture and ecological design projects that protect and enhance the environment. Projects range from a project for Portland's homeless to public parks to a LEED Platinum campus center.
| Apr 23, 2014
Architecture Billings Index dips in March
The March ABI score was 48.8, down sharply from a mark of 50.7 in February. This score reflects a decrease in design services.
| Apr 21, 2014
10 design-build best practices
Design-build requires more than a good contract and appropriate risk allocation, says the DBIA. Everyone from the owner to the subcontractors must understand the process, the expectations, and fully engage in the collaboration.
| Apr 17, 2014
Online mapping tool helps teams determine multifamily project tax credit eligibility
Accounting and advisory firm Baker Tilly has launched a new, interactive online mapping tool that helps users determine if a business or development project may qualify for the New Markets Tax Credit or Low-Income Housing Tax Credit program.
| Apr 15, 2014
12 award-winning structural steel buildings
Zaha Hadid's Broad Art Museum and One World Trade Center are among the projects honored by the American Institute of Steel Construction for excellence in structural steel design.
| Apr 11, 2014
ULI report documents business case for building healthy projects
Sustainable and wellness-related design strategies embody a strong return on investment, according to a report by the Urban Land Institute.