According to Associated Builders and Contractors (ABC), the Construction Backlog Indicator (CBI) for the fourth quarter of 2014 declined 0.1 months, or 1%. Despite the quarter-over-quarter decline, backlog ended the year at 8.7 months, which is still 4.4% higher than one year ago.
"Inconsistent growth in the volume of public work continues to suppress the pace of nonresidential construction; however, private construction momentum continues to build," said ABC Chief Economist Anirban Basu. "With hotel occupancy rising, office vacancy falling and demand for data climbing exponentially, a number of key private segments are positioned for rapid growth in construction spending this year.
"There are a number of factors that are likely to be beneficial to nonresidential contractors in 2015," said Basu. "First, although interest rates were expected to rise after the Federal Reserve ended its third round of quantitative easing, they have actually been trending lower—due to factors such as falling interest rates abroad and a strengthening U.S. dollar—which helps contractors with construction volume and borrowing costs. Second, materials prices have continued to fall—particularly inputs related to the price of oil, iron ore and copper. This also makes it more likely that construction projects will move forward and helps boost profit margins."
Regional Highlights
• Average backlog in the South is back above 9 months for the first time since the first quarter of 2014.
• Though backlog in the West fell sharply during 2014's final quarter, average backlog remains comparable to where it was a year ago.
• Both the Northeast and the Middle States registered levels of average backlog unseen during the history of the CBI survey.
Industry Highlights
• Average backlog in the commercial and institutional category is virtually unchanged over the past year, suggesting the pace of recovery will remain moderate overall.
• Infrastructure-related spending is likely to be brisk going forward primarily due to improved state and local government fiscal conditions.
• Heavy industrial average backlog remains in the vicinity of multi-year highs, but these readings do not fully reflect the impact of a stronger U.S. dollar, which may result in a slowdown in export growth and an associated softening in industrial investment.
Highlights by Company Size
• During the fourth quarter, backlog expanded for mid-sized companies with annual revenue ranging between $30 million-$100 million. These firms enjoyed approximately half a month expansion in their respective average backlogs during the fourth quarter.
• On the other hand, backlog for small firms (annual revenue less than $30 million) and very large firms (annual revenue greater than $100 million) declined 0.2 months and 0.5 months, respectively.
• Large firms appear to have been impacted by a slowdown in large project infrastructure spending in certain parts of the country, while smaller firms have been impacted by greater observed difficulty in obtaining bonding for projects in the context of accelerating small firm failure.
• Average backlog has increased by nearly three months or by more than three months for all firm size categories since the fourth quarter of 2009.
Related Stories
Multifamily Housing | Jul 27, 2017
Apartment market index: Business conditions soften, but still solid
Despite some softness at the high end of the apartment market, demand for apartments will continue to be substantial for years to come, according to the National Multifamily Housing Council.
Multifamily Housing | Jul 27, 2017
Game rooms and game simulators popular amenities in multifamily developments
The number of developments providing space for physical therapy was somewhat surprising, according to a new survey.
Building Enclosure Systems | Jul 26, 2017
Balcony and roof railings and the code: Maintain, repair, or replace? [AIA course]
Lacking familiarity with current requirements, some owners or managers complete a roof or balcony rehabilitation, only to learn after the fact that they need to tear noncompliant railings out of their new roof or terrace and install new ones.
Concrete | Jul 13, 2017
LF Driscoll and Balfour Beatty recently wrapped the largest concrete pour in Philadelphia’s history
The pour created the foundation for the Foster + Partners-designed Pavilion on Penn Medicine’s Campus.
Multifamily Housing | Jul 12, 2017
Midyear Rent Report: 26 states saw rental price increases in first half of 2017
The most notable rental increases are in growing markets in the South and Southwest: New Orleans, Glendale, Ariz., Houston, Reno, N.V., and Atlanta.
Giants 400 | Jul 12, 2017
Innovation abounds, but will it lead to growth for AEC Giants?
Engineering firms such as Arup, Glumac, and Thornton Tomasetti are leveraging their in-house expertise to develop products and tools for their design teams, clients, and even the competition.
Multifamily Housing | Jul 12, 2017
7 noteworthy multifamily projects: posh amenities, healthy living, plugged-in lifestyle
Zen meditation gardens, bocce courts, saltwater pools, and free drinks highlight the niceties at these new multifamily developments.
Building Technology | Jul 6, 2017
Construction sites will be human-free by 2050, according to Balfour Beatty
The new paper also makes 10 predictions for the industry in 2050.
Contractors | Jul 6, 2017
Paul Matt, builder of iconic structures in Southern California, dies at 85
His construction career spanned seven decades.
Accelerate Live! | Jul 6, 2017
Watch all 20 Accelerate Live! talks on demand
BD+C’s inaugural AEC innovation conference, Accelerate Live! (May 11, Chicago), featured talks on machine learning, AI, gaming in construction, maker culture, and health-generating buildings.
