According to Associated Builders and Contractors (ABC), the Construction Backlog Indicator (CBI) for the fourth quarter of 2014 declined 0.1 months, or 1%. Despite the quarter-over-quarter decline, backlog ended the year at 8.7 months, which is still 4.4% higher than one year ago.
"Inconsistent growth in the volume of public work continues to suppress the pace of nonresidential construction; however, private construction momentum continues to build," said ABC Chief Economist Anirban Basu. "With hotel occupancy rising, office vacancy falling and demand for data climbing exponentially, a number of key private segments are positioned for rapid growth in construction spending this year.
"There are a number of factors that are likely to be beneficial to nonresidential contractors in 2015," said Basu. "First, although interest rates were expected to rise after the Federal Reserve ended its third round of quantitative easing, they have actually been trending lower—due to factors such as falling interest rates abroad and a strengthening U.S. dollar—which helps contractors with construction volume and borrowing costs. Second, materials prices have continued to fall—particularly inputs related to the price of oil, iron ore and copper. This also makes it more likely that construction projects will move forward and helps boost profit margins."
Regional Highlights
• Average backlog in the South is back above 9 months for the first time since the first quarter of 2014.
• Though backlog in the West fell sharply during 2014's final quarter, average backlog remains comparable to where it was a year ago.
• Both the Northeast and the Middle States registered levels of average backlog unseen during the history of the CBI survey.
Industry Highlights
• Average backlog in the commercial and institutional category is virtually unchanged over the past year, suggesting the pace of recovery will remain moderate overall.
• Infrastructure-related spending is likely to be brisk going forward primarily due to improved state and local government fiscal conditions.
• Heavy industrial average backlog remains in the vicinity of multi-year highs, but these readings do not fully reflect the impact of a stronger U.S. dollar, which may result in a slowdown in export growth and an associated softening in industrial investment.
Highlights by Company Size
• During the fourth quarter, backlog expanded for mid-sized companies with annual revenue ranging between $30 million-$100 million. These firms enjoyed approximately half a month expansion in their respective average backlogs during the fourth quarter.
• On the other hand, backlog for small firms (annual revenue less than $30 million) and very large firms (annual revenue greater than $100 million) declined 0.2 months and 0.5 months, respectively.
• Large firms appear to have been impacted by a slowdown in large project infrastructure spending in certain parts of the country, while smaller firms have been impacted by greater observed difficulty in obtaining bonding for projects in the context of accelerating small firm failure.
• Average backlog has increased by nearly three months or by more than three months for all firm size categories since the fourth quarter of 2009.
Related Stories
Contractors | Sep 6, 2017
Following the money: G702 progress payment certifications
There is no single method of calculating progress payments, but the most common formula is the percentage of completion applied to the total contract price, less a retainage which is held by the owner until final acceptance of the project.
Multifamily Housing | Sep 5, 2017
Free WiFi, meeting rooms most popular business services amenities in multifamily developments
Complimentary, building-wide WiFi is more or less a given for marketing purposes in the multifamily arena.
Architects | Sep 1, 2017
5 reasons why AEC firms need to focus on employer branding
Not to be confused with the branding of your firm overall, your employer brand is defined by your reputation as a workplace.
Mixed-Use | Aug 30, 2017
A 50-acre waterfront redevelopment gets under way in Tampa
Nine architects, three interior designers, and nine contractors are involved in this $3 billion project.
Giants 400 | Aug 29, 2017
Top 110 healthcare construction firms
Turner, McCarthy, and Skanska top BD+C’s ranking of the nation’s largest healthcare sector contractor and construction management firms, as reported in the 2017 Giants 300 Report.
Green | Aug 24, 2017
Business case for WELL still developing after first generation office fitouts completed
The costs ranged from 50 cents to $4 per sf, according to a ULI report.
BD+C University Course | Aug 23, 2017
AIA course: New steel systems add strength and beauty
Advances in R&D are fostering new forms of structural and aesthetic steel.
Market Data | Aug 23, 2017
Architecture Billings Index growth moderates
“The July figures show the continuation of healthy trends in the construction sector of our economy,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker.
Giants 400 | Aug 16, 2017
Turning R&D into practice
Charlie Pankow’s mandate was simple: Use research to create even better buildings.
Giants 400 | Aug 11, 2017
Top 60 construction management firms
Jacobs, Kraus-Anderson, and Hill International are among the nation’s largest construction management and project management firms, as reported in Building Design+Construction’s 2017 Giants 300 Report.
