At the end of 2018, analysts at Lodging Econometrics (LE) reported that the total U.S. construction pipeline continued to trend upward with 5,530 projects/669,456 rooms, both up a strong 7% year-over-year (YOY). However, pipeline totals continue to trail the all-time high of 5,883 projects/785,547 rooms reached in the second quarter of 2008.
Project counts in the early planning stage continue to rise reaching an all-time high of 1,723 projects/199,326 rooms, up 14% by projects and 12% by rooms YOY. Projects scheduled to start construction in the next 12 months stand at 2,153 projects/255,083 rooms. Projects currently under construction are at 1,654 projects/215,047 rooms, the highest counts since early 2008.
Also noteworthy at year-end, the upscale, upper-midscale, and midscale categories are at record-highs, for both rooms and projects. Luxury room counts and upper-upscale project counts are also at record levels.
In 2018, the U.S. had 947 new hotels/112,050 rooms open, a 2% growth in new supply, bringing the total U.S. census to 56,909 hotels/5,381,090 rooms. The LE forecast for new hotel openings in 2019 anticipates a 2.2% supply growth rate with 1,022 new hotels/116,357 rooms expected to open. The pace for new hotel openings has slowed slightly because of construction delays largely caused by shortages in skilled labor.
Lending at attractive rates is still accessible to developers, but lenders are growing more selective as we move deeper into the existing cycle.
The pipeline has completed its seventh consecutive year of growth. Moving forward the growth rate is expected to slow as the economies of most countries, including the United States, more firmly settle into the “new normal" marked by slow growth and low inflation.
While there are no visible signs of a recession on the horizon, the risks to the economy are not insignificant and include tariff conflicts, swings in the stock market, unforeseen geopolitical problems, any of which could send the economy lower.
Related Stories
Market Data | Nov 2, 2020
Nonresidential construction spending declines further in September
Among the sixteen nonresidential subcategories, thirteen were down on a monthly basis.
Market Data | Nov 2, 2020
A white paper assesses seniors’ access to livable communities
The Joint Center for Housing Studies and AARP’s Public Policy Institute connect livability with income, race, and housing costs.
Market Data | Nov 2, 2020
More contractors report canceled projects than starts, survey finds
Construction employment declined in most metros in latest 12 months.
Multifamily Housing | Oct 30, 2020
The Weekly show: Multifamily security tips, the state of construction industry research, and AGC's market update
BD+C editors speak with experts from AGC, Charles Pankow Foundation, and Silva Consultants on the October 29 episode of "The Weekly." The episode is available for viewing on demand.
Hotel Facilities | Oct 27, 2020
Hotel construction pipeline dips 7% in Q3 2020
Hospitality developers continue to closely monitor the impact the coronavirus will have on travel demand, according to Lodging Econometrics.
Market Data | Oct 22, 2020
Multifamily’s long-term outlook rebounds to pre-covid levels in Q3
Slump was a short one for multifamily market as 3rd quarter proposal activity soars.
Market Data | Oct 21, 2020
Architectural billings slowdown moderated in September
AIA’s ABI score for September was 47.0 compared to 40.0 in August.
Market Data | Oct 21, 2020
Only eight states top February peak construction employment despite gains in 32 states last month
California and Vermont post worst losses since February as Virginia and South Dakota add the most.
Market Data | Oct 20, 2020
AIA releases updated contracts for multi-family residential and prototype residential projects
New resources provide insights into mitigating and managing risk on complex residential design and construction projects.
Market Data | Oct 20, 2020
Construction officials call on Trump and Biden to establish a nationwide vaccine distribution plan to avoid confusion and delays
Officials say nationwide plan should set clear distribution priorities.