Researchers from the NYU Stern School of Business and the Columbia University Graduate School of Business say the work-from-home movement will result in $500 billion of lost value in office real estate.
In a recent study, the researchers found a 32% decline in office values in 2020 and predict a 28% fall “in the longer-run.” The work-from-home shift since the pandemic has caused significant changes in lease revenues, office occupancy, lease renewal rates, lease durations, and market rents, researchers say.
Robust tools for working from home had been in place for years, but the necessities of the pandemic pushed widespread adoption of remote work. According to the researchers, office occupancy dropped from 95% in February 2020 to 10% within a month. By May 2022, it had only bounced back to 50%.
If the trend remains strong, a lot of office space might not be necessary. That would mean massive financial implications for land values and valuations in lending, nearby retail space, and tax resources for local governments.
The declines don’t fall evenly. There is “some evidence of a ‘flight to quality,’ particularly in rents,” researchers say. But rents may have yet to bottom out, as vacancy rates are at 30-year highs in many cities, and on average two-thirds of leases haven’t come up for renewals yet.
Related Stories
| Feb 13, 2014
Related Companies, LargaVista partner to develop mixed-use tower in SoHo
The site is located at the gateway to the booming SoHo retail market, where Class A office space is scarce yet highly in demand.
| Feb 12, 2014
First Look: Futuristic Silicon Valley campus designed to draw tech startups
The curved campus will consist of four different buildings, one exclusively for amenities like a coffee bar, bike shop, and bank.
| Feb 7, 2014
Zaha Hadid's 'white crystal' petroleum research center taking shape in the desert [slideshow]
Like a crystalline form still in the state of expansion, the King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center will rise from the desert in dramatic fashion, with a network of bright-white, six-sided cells combining to form an angular, shell-like façade.
| Feb 6, 2014
End of the open workplace?
If you’ve been following news about workplace design in the popular media, you might believe that the open workplace has run its course. While there’s no shortage of bad open-plan workplaces, there are two big flaws with the now common claim that openness is bad.
| Feb 5, 2014
Extreme conversion: Atlanta turns high-rise office building into high school
Formerly occupied by IBM, the 11-story Lakeside building is the new home for North Atlanta High School.
| Feb 5, 2014
7 towers that define the 'skinny skyscraper' boom [slideshow]
Recent advancements in structural design, combined with the loosening of density and zoning requirements, has opened the door for the so-called "superslim skyscraper."
| Jan 30, 2014
See how architects at NBBJ are using computational design to calculate the best views on projects [video]
In an ideal world, every office employee would have a beautiful view from his or her desk. While no one can make that happen in real life, computational design can help architects maximize views from every angle.
| Jan 30, 2014
The evolving workplace: One designer's inspiration board
"Open office" has been a major buzzword for decades, and like any buzzword, some of the novelty has worn off. I don't believe we will abandon the open office, but I do think we need to focus on providing a dynamic mix of open and closed spaces.
| Jan 29, 2014
Richard Meier unveils 'urban courtyard' scheme for Mexico City towers
A grand atrium, reaching some 30 stories, highlights the contemporary, bright-white design scheme unveiled this week by Richard Meier & Partners for a new mixed-use development in Mexico City.
| Jan 28, 2014
2014 predictions for skyscraper construction: More twisting towers, mega-tall projects, and 'superslim' designs
Experts from the Council on Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat release their 2014 construction forecast for the worldwide high-rise industry.