Researchers from the NYU Stern School of Business and the Columbia University Graduate School of Business say the work-from-home movement will result in $500 billion of lost value in office real estate.
In a recent study, the researchers found a 32% decline in office values in 2020 and predict a 28% fall “in the longer-run.” The work-from-home shift since the pandemic has caused significant changes in lease revenues, office occupancy, lease renewal rates, lease durations, and market rents, researchers say.
Robust tools for working from home had been in place for years, but the necessities of the pandemic pushed widespread adoption of remote work. According to the researchers, office occupancy dropped from 95% in February 2020 to 10% within a month. By May 2022, it had only bounced back to 50%.
If the trend remains strong, a lot of office space might not be necessary. That would mean massive financial implications for land values and valuations in lending, nearby retail space, and tax resources for local governments.
The declines don’t fall evenly. There is “some evidence of a ‘flight to quality,’ particularly in rents,” researchers say. But rents may have yet to bottom out, as vacancy rates are at 30-year highs in many cities, and on average two-thirds of leases haven’t come up for renewals yet.
Related Stories
| Oct 30, 2014
New hotel to be developed at future Dallas Cowboys World Headquarters
The Omni property will be one of the only full-service upscale hotels in the area, and serve as a cornerstone of the mixed-use development, which will be anchored by the Dallas Cowboys World Headquarters and Frisco’s Multi-Use Event Center.
| Oct 29, 2014
Better guidance for appraising green buildings is steadily emerging
The Appraisal Foundation is striving to improve appraisers’ understanding of green valuation.
| Oct 27, 2014
Davis, Calif., latest city to join race to develop 'innovation hubs'
The city plans to develop two "innovation centers" with a total of seven million sf of commercial space geared for local research and technology companies.
| Oct 24, 2014
Work in the City: Urban Diversificaton
As work and the other aspects of our lives blend, lifestyle becomes the primary lens through which all facets come into focus. In this light, individuals are taking more ownership of their own life and work choices.
| Oct 24, 2014
Herzog & de Meuron reveals plans for redesign of Roche pharmaceutical campus in Germany
The project includes the addition of a 205-meter-high tower and research center, as well as the renovation of an historic office building designed by Swiss architect Otto R. Salvisber.
Sponsored | | Oct 23, 2014
From slots to public safety: Abandoned Detroit casino transformed into LEED-certified public safety headquarters
First constructed as an office for the Internal Revenue Service, the city's new public safety headquarters had more recently served as a temporary home for the MGM Casino. SPONSORED CONTENT
| Oct 23, 2014
China's 'weird' buildings: President Xi Jinping wants no more of them
During a literary symposium in Beijing, Chinese President Xi Jinping urged architects, authors, actors, and other artists to produce work with "artistic and moral value."
| Oct 22, 2014
Customization is the key in tomorrow's workplace
The importance of mobility, flexibility, and sustainability in the world of corporate design are already well-established. A newer trend that’s gaining deserved attention is customizability, and how it will look in the coming years, writes GS&P's Leith Oatman.
| Oct 16, 2014
Perkins+Will white paper examines alternatives to flame retardant building materials
The white paper includes a list of 193 flame retardants, including 29 discovered in building and household products, 50 found in the indoor environment, and 33 in human blood, milk, and tissues.
| Oct 15, 2014
Harvard launches ‘design-centric’ center for green buildings and cities
The impetus behind Harvard's Center for Green Buildings and Cities is what the design school’s dean, Mohsen Mostafavi, describes as a “rapidly urbanizing global economy,” in which cities are building new structures “on a massive scale.”