Researchers from the NYU Stern School of Business and the Columbia University Graduate School of Business say the work-from-home movement will result in $500 billion of lost value in office real estate.
In a recent study, the researchers found a 32% decline in office values in 2020 and predict a 28% fall “in the longer-run.” The work-from-home shift since the pandemic has caused significant changes in lease revenues, office occupancy, lease renewal rates, lease durations, and market rents, researchers say.
Robust tools for working from home had been in place for years, but the necessities of the pandemic pushed widespread adoption of remote work. According to the researchers, office occupancy dropped from 95% in February 2020 to 10% within a month. By May 2022, it had only bounced back to 50%.
If the trend remains strong, a lot of office space might not be necessary. That would mean massive financial implications for land values and valuations in lending, nearby retail space, and tax resources for local governments.
The declines don’t fall evenly. There is “some evidence of a ‘flight to quality,’ particularly in rents,” researchers say. But rents may have yet to bottom out, as vacancy rates are at 30-year highs in many cities, and on average two-thirds of leases haven’t come up for renewals yet.
Related Stories
Giants 400 | Jan 23, 2024
Top 70 Medical Office Building Construction Firms for 2023
PCL Construction Enterprises, Swinerton, Skanska USA, Clark Group, and Hensel Phelps top BD+C's ranking of the nation's largest medical office building general contractors and construction management (CM) firms for 2023, as reported in the 2023 Giants 400 Report.
Giants 400 | Jan 23, 2024
Top 50 Medical Office Building Engineering Firms for 2023
Jacobs, Salas O'Brien, KPFF Consulting Engineers, IMEG, and Kimley-Horn head BD+C's ranking of the nation's largest medical office building engineering and engineering/architecture (EA) firms for 2023, as reported in the 2023 Giants 400 Report.
Giants 400 | Jan 23, 2024
Top 110 Medical Office Building Architecture Firms for 2023
SmithGroup, CannonDesign, E4H Environments for Health Architecture, and Perkins Eastman top BD+C's ranking of the nation's largest medical office building architecture and architecture engineering (AE) firms for 2023, as reported in the 2023 Giants 400 Report.
Office Buildings | Jan 19, 2024
How to strengthen office design as employees return to work
Adam James, AIA, Senior Architect, Design Collaborative, shares office design tips for the increasingly dynamic workplace.
Adaptive Reuse | Jan 18, 2024
Coca-Cola packaging warehouse transformed into mixed-use complex
The 250,000-sf structure is located along a now defunct railroad line that forms the footprint for the city’s multi-phase Beltline pedestrian/bike path that will eventually loop around the city.
Sponsored | BD+C University Course | Jan 17, 2024
Waterproofing deep foundations for new construction
This continuing education course, by Walter P Moore's Amos Chan, P.E., BECxP, CxA+BE, covers design considerations for below-grade waterproofing for new construction, the types of below-grade systems available, and specific concerns associated with waterproofing deep foundations.
Biophilic Design | Jan 16, 2024
New supertall Manhattan tower features wraparound green terraces
At 66 stories and 1,031.5 ft high, The Spiral is BIG’s first supertall building and first commercial high-rise in New York.
Sustainability | Jan 10, 2024
New passive house partnership allows lower cost financing for developers
The new partnership between PACE Equity and Phius allows commercial passive house projects to be automatically eligible for CIRRUS Low Carbon financing.
MFPRO+ Special Reports | Jan 4, 2024
Top 10 trends in multifamily rental housing
Demographic and economic shifts, along with work and lifestyle changes, have made apartment living preferable for a wider range of buyers and renters. These top 10 trends in multifamily housing come from BD+C's 2023 Multifamily Annual Report.
Green | Dec 18, 2023
Class B commercial properties gain more from LEED certification than Class A buildings
Class B office properties that are LEED certified command a greater relative benefit than LEED-certified Class A buildings, according to analysis from CBRE. The Class B LEED rent advantage over non-LEED is about three times larger than the premium earned by Class A LEED buildings.