Researchers from the NYU Stern School of Business and the Columbia University Graduate School of Business say the work-from-home movement will result in $500 billion of lost value in office real estate.
In a recent study, the researchers found a 32% decline in office values in 2020 and predict a 28% fall “in the longer-run.” The work-from-home shift since the pandemic has caused significant changes in lease revenues, office occupancy, lease renewal rates, lease durations, and market rents, researchers say.
Robust tools for working from home had been in place for years, but the necessities of the pandemic pushed widespread adoption of remote work. According to the researchers, office occupancy dropped from 95% in February 2020 to 10% within a month. By May 2022, it had only bounced back to 50%.
If the trend remains strong, a lot of office space might not be necessary. That would mean massive financial implications for land values and valuations in lending, nearby retail space, and tax resources for local governments.
The declines don’t fall evenly. There is “some evidence of a ‘flight to quality,’ particularly in rents,” researchers say. But rents may have yet to bottom out, as vacancy rates are at 30-year highs in many cities, and on average two-thirds of leases haven’t come up for renewals yet.
Related Stories
| Dec 5, 2011
Gables Residential brings mixed-use building to Houston's Tanglewood area
The design integrates a detailed brick and masonry facade, acknowledging the soft pastel color palette of the surrounding Mediterranean heritage of Tanglewood.
| Dec 5, 2011
SchenkelShultz Architecture designs Dr. Phillips Charities Headquarters building in Orlando
The building incorporates sustainable architectural features, environmentally friendly building products, energy-efficient systems, and environmentally-sensitive construction practices.
| Dec 2, 2011
What are you waiting for? BD+C's 2012 40 Under 40 nominations are due Friday, Jan. 20
Nominate a colleague, peer, or even yourself. Applications available here.
| Dec 1, 2011
VLK Architects’ office receives LEED certification
The West 7th development, which houses the firm’s office, was designed to be LEED for Core & Shell, which gave VLK the head start on finishing out the area for LEED Silver Certification CI.
| Nov 22, 2011
Corporate America adopting revolutionary technology
The survey also found that by 2015, the standard of square feet allocated per employee is expected to drop from 200 to estimates ranging from 50 to 100 square feet per person dependent upon the industry sector.
| Nov 18, 2011
Centre for Interactive Research on Sustainability opens
Designed to exceed LEED Platinum, the Centre for Interactive Research on Sustainability (CIRS) is one of the most innovative and high performance buildings in North America today, demonstrating leading-edge green building design products, technologies, and systems.
| Nov 17, 2011
Hollister Construction Services renovating bank in Union City, N.J.
Project is part of a series of ground-up construction and renovation assignments.
| Nov 16, 2011
Project completion of BRAC 132, Office of the Chief Army Reserve Building, Ft. Belvoir, Va.
This fast-tracked, design-build project consists of a three-story, 88,470 sf administrative command building housing approximately 430 employees.
| Nov 15, 2011
Struggling economy demands construction industry embrace enterprise-wide risk management
In today’s business environment of high supply and limited demand, it has become especially vital for organizations in the construction sector to effectively manage risk.
| Nov 15, 2011
Miller joins Perkins Eastman as regional manager, Middle East and Northern Africa
Miller joins Perkins Eastman with more than 48 years of experience in architecture, design management, and construction administration for planning and infrastructure.
