Researchers from the NYU Stern School of Business and the Columbia University Graduate School of Business say the work-from-home movement will result in $500 billion of lost value in office real estate.
In a recent study, the researchers found a 32% decline in office values in 2020 and predict a 28% fall “in the longer-run.” The work-from-home shift since the pandemic has caused significant changes in lease revenues, office occupancy, lease renewal rates, lease durations, and market rents, researchers say.
Robust tools for working from home had been in place for years, but the necessities of the pandemic pushed widespread adoption of remote work. According to the researchers, office occupancy dropped from 95% in February 2020 to 10% within a month. By May 2022, it had only bounced back to 50%.
If the trend remains strong, a lot of office space might not be necessary. That would mean massive financial implications for land values and valuations in lending, nearby retail space, and tax resources for local governments.
The declines don’t fall evenly. There is “some evidence of a ‘flight to quality,’ particularly in rents,” researchers say. But rents may have yet to bottom out, as vacancy rates are at 30-year highs in many cities, and on average two-thirds of leases haven’t come up for renewals yet.
Related Stories
| Apr 16, 2012
Drake joins EYP as science and technology project executive
Drake’s more than 30 years of diversified design and project delivery experience spans a broad range of complex building types.
| Apr 13, 2012
Best Commercial Modular Buildings Recognized
Judges scored building entries on a number of criteria including architectural excellence, technical innovation, cost effectiveness, energy efficiency, and calendar days to complete, while marketing pieces were judged on strategy, implementation, and quantifiable results. Read More
| Apr 6, 2012
Flat tower green building concept the un-skycraper
A team of French designers unveil the “Flat Tower” design, a second place winner in the 2011 eVolo skyscraper competition.
| Apr 2, 2012
EB-5 investment funds new Miramar, Fla. business complex
Riviera Point Holdings breaks ground on $17 million office center.
| Mar 28, 2012
Milestone reached for LEED-certified buildings?
Total number of major global green buildings now stands at 12,000.
| Mar 27, 2012
Bank of America Plaza becomes Atlanta's priciest repo
Repo will help reset market prices for real estate, and the eventual new owner will likely set rental rates at a new or near the bottom and improve the facilities to lure tenants.
| Mar 26, 2012
McCarthy tops off Math and Science Building at San Diego Mesa College
Designed by Architects | Delawie Wilkes Rodrigues Barker, the new San Diego Mesa College Math and Science Building will provide new educational space for students pursuing degree and certificate programs in biology, chemistry, physical sciences and mathematics.
| Mar 26, 2012
Ball State University completes nation's largest ground-source geothermal system
Ball State's geothermal system will replace four aging coal-fired boilers to provide renewable power that will heat and cool 47 university buildings, representing 5.5-million-sf on the 660-acre campus.
| Mar 21, 2012
10 common data center surprises
Technologies and best practices provide path for better preparation.
| Mar 20, 2012
New office designs at San Diego’s Sunroad Corporate Center
Traditional office space being transformed into a modern work environment, complete with private offices, high-tech conference rooms, a break room, and an art gallery, as well as standard facilities and amenities.
