Researchers from the NYU Stern School of Business and the Columbia University Graduate School of Business say the work-from-home movement will result in $500 billion of lost value in office real estate.
In a recent study, the researchers found a 32% decline in office values in 2020 and predict a 28% fall “in the longer-run.” The work-from-home shift since the pandemic has caused significant changes in lease revenues, office occupancy, lease renewal rates, lease durations, and market rents, researchers say.
Robust tools for working from home had been in place for years, but the necessities of the pandemic pushed widespread adoption of remote work. According to the researchers, office occupancy dropped from 95% in February 2020 to 10% within a month. By May 2022, it had only bounced back to 50%.
If the trend remains strong, a lot of office space might not be necessary. That would mean massive financial implications for land values and valuations in lending, nearby retail space, and tax resources for local governments.
The declines don’t fall evenly. There is “some evidence of a ‘flight to quality,’ particularly in rents,” researchers say. But rents may have yet to bottom out, as vacancy rates are at 30-year highs in many cities, and on average two-thirds of leases haven’t come up for renewals yet.
Related Stories
| Feb 26, 2013
Tax incentive database for reflective roofs available
The Roof Coatings Manufacturers Association (RCMA) and the Database of State Incentives for Renewables & Efficiency (DSIRE) created a database of current information on rebates and tax credits for installing reflective roofs.
| Feb 25, 2013
First look: Google's new HQ is engineered for creative collisions
The new California "Googleplex" will be engineered to make sure no Google employee will be more than a 2.5 minute walk away from any other.
| Feb 25, 2013
10 U.S. cities with the best urban forests
Charlotte, Denver, and Milwaukee are among 10 U.S. cities ranked recently by the conservation organization American Forests for having quality urban forest programs.
| Feb 22, 2013
Westlake Reed Leskosky will renovate training center for Cleveland Browns
Local firm Westlake Reed Leskosky has been chosen to design renovations to the Cleveland Browns' Training and Administrative Complex in Berea, Ohio.
| Feb 21, 2013
Holl videos discuss design features of Chengdu ' Porosity Block' project
Architect Steven Holl has released two short films describing the development of Sliced Porosity Block in Chengdu, China.
| Feb 21, 2013
Construction team chosen for world's tallest building in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia
Construction team chosen for world's tallest building in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.
| Feb 20, 2013
Higher standards, efficiency programs keys to 40% energy usage reduction in commercial buildings since 1980
Commercial buildings have seen a drop in their energy intensity of more than 40% since 1980, according to a recent report from Bloomberg New Energy Finance and the Business Council for Sustainable Energy.
| Feb 20, 2013
CoreNet Global to real estate execs: 'Move forward on net-zero'
CoreNet Global, a major international association for corporate real estate and workplace executives, has released a public policy statement advocating adoption of net-zero energy buildings.
| Feb 17, 2013
Pakistan to get world's tallest tower in $45 billion deal
Newly signed mega deal will fund construction of several massive developments in Karachi, including a mixed-use tower that will dwarf the Burj Khalifa.
