November 2016 will most certainly go down in the books as one of the most memorable months in recent decades. If the Chicago Cubs winning the World Series in dramatic Game 7 fashion wasn’t enough to shock you, then the events that unfolded during the late evening on Nov. 8 likely were.
Regardless of which side of the aisle you stand on, election night was a jaw-dropping moment. Donald Trump’s own campaign advisors, along with some of his supporters and pundits, admitted to being astonished as the story unfolded on election night.
On the morning of Election Day, the New York Times set the odds of Trump winning at a scant 15%. “Mrs. Clinton’s chance of losing is about the same as the probability that an N.F.L. kicker misses a 37-yard field goal,” they wrote. Well, Hillary missed a chip shot, and the NYT editors—like many in the media—were left with egg on their face for grossly underestimating Trump’s chances. It was a Dewey Defeats Truman moment.
What does a Trump-led America (coupled with a GOP-controlled Congress) mean for the AEC industry? As with any election, it’s a mixed bag of the good, the bad, and the unknown.
The good: Trump proposes spending up- wards of $1 trillion to rebuild the nation’s roads, bridges, tunnels, water systems, and airports as part of a massive infrastructure bill. While not primarily buildings work, this level of investment would most certainly create real estate development opportunities and needs—whether directly or indirectly—for the AEC community. Infrastructure investment is one of the few pressing issues that garners almost universal support among political leaders in Washington. The trillion-dollar question is, How do we pay for it? Trump’s answer: public-private partnerships and other creative financing methods.
The bad: In his 100-day action plan, Trump outlines several measures that could hit AEC firms in the pocketbook in the near term. On the list is Obamacare, which Trump hopes to repeal and replace with traditional HSA and health insurance initiatives. This move could cause healthcare operators to take a “let’s wait and see” approach to real estate investments, much like they did during the implementation of Obamacare. Having healthcare owners hit the pause button for the second time in six years could severely impact AEC rms. At $87 billion in annual construction spending, healthcare is the largest sector in the nonresidential market.
The unknown: Given the GOP’s contentious relationship with Trump during the election cycle, we could be in for four more years of gridlock in Washington. It’s too early to predict how his ideas will be received by the house and senate.
A recent survey of 306 BD+C readers paints a picture of cautious optimism for AEC firms. Half of the respondents (50.3%) predict that 2017 will be an “excellent” or “very good” business year for their firm. More than half (55.3%) expect their firm’s revenue to increase next year; just 11.5% are forecasting a drop.
On the flip side, when asked to identify their biggest concerns heading into 2017, nearly a third (31.7%) cited “business impacts from the Presidential election” as a top-three burden— only behind “general economic conditions” and “competition from other firms.”
As we head toward Inauguration Day, all we can do is hope the President-elect delivers on much more good than bad.
Related Stories
Industry Research | Mar 2, 2023
Watch: Findings from Gensler's latest workplace survey of 2,000 office workers
Gensler's Janet Pogue McLaurin discusses the findings in the firm's 2022 Workplace Survey, based on responses from more than 2,000 workers in 10 industry sectors.
Museums | Jan 18, 2023
Building memory: Why interpretive centers matter in an era of social change
The last few years have borne witness to some of the most rapid cultural shifts in our nation’s long history. If the experience has taught us anything, it is that we must find a way to keep our history in view, while also putting it in perspective.
Hotel Facilities | Nov 8, 2022
6 hotel design trends for 2022-2023
Personalization of the hotel guest experience shapes new construction and renovation, say architects and construction experts in this sector.
Resiliency | Nov 8, 2022
Oregon wildfire risk law prompts extensive backlash from property owners
A bipartisan bill aimed at protecting property owners from wildfires that was passed by the Oregon legislature has prompted a strong backlash.
Building Team | Nov 7, 2022
U.S. commercial buildings decreased energy use intensity from 2012 to 2018
The recently released 2018 Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey (CBECS) by the U.S. Energy Information Administration found that the total floorspace in commercial buildings has increased but energy consumption has not, compared with the last survey analyzing the landscape in 2012.
| Nov 7, 2022
Mixed-use tower in China features world’s highest outdoor pool
Guangxi China Resources Tower, a new 403-meter-tall (1,322 feet) skyscraper in Nanning, China features the world’s highest outdoor pool—at 323 meters (1,060 feet) above grade.
Building Team | Nov 3, 2022
More than half of U.S. contractors say finding skilled workers is big barrier to their growth
More than half of U.S. contractors (55%) say finding enough skilled workers is one of the biggest barriers to growing their business, according to a DEWALT Powering the Future Survey.
Codes and Standards | Nov 2, 2022
New York City construction official wants to boost design-build
The new associate commissioner of alternative delivery in New York City’s Department of Design and Construction aims to encourage more design-build project delivery in the city.
University Buildings | Nov 2, 2022
New Univ. of Calif. Riverside business school building will support hybrid learning
A design-build partnership of Moore Ruble Yudell and McCarthy Building Companies will collaborate on a new business school building at the University of California at Riverside.
Building Team | Nov 1, 2022
Nonresidential construction spending increases slightly in September, says ABC
National nonresidential construction spending was up by 0.5% in September, according to an Associated Builders and Contractors analysis of data published today by the U.S. Census Bureau.
