Video may have killed the radio star, but has e-commerce done the same to your local retail establishment? Will the rise of everything from Amazon to Zappos take down the bookstore up the street, your local shoe store? Don’t bet on it.
While the much-touted demise of good old fashioned, bricks-and-mortar stores makes for good headlines, it’s not actually based in fact.
According to JLL’s Cross Sector Outlook released this spring, despite e-commerce’s leaps and bounds over the last few years, it still represents a relatively small percentage of total retail sales—6.0% to be exact. Your shoe store is safe for now, and probably well into the future.
“Remember catalogs? Flipping through the pages, dialing up a call center and placing an order? Web sales are really just replacing that,” said Kris Cooper, Managing Director, JLL Capital Markets. “People still need to see and touch things; the instant gratification of an in-store purchase can’t be discounted. Retailers who want to thrive will need to incorporate it all—hands-on goods, e-commerce and mobile-commerce.”
Despite these emerging structural challenges and newly-announced store closings, such as those of Radio Shack, Office Depot, and Coldwater Creek, the U.S. retail sector has continued on its solid recovery and is exhibiting tightening market conditions.
Cap rates compressed by approximately 20 basis points in 2013 as rent growth is expected to increase to 2.7% in 2014. Vacancy rates are also expected to compress another 20 basis points by the end of this year.
Right now, power centers, in particular, are punching above their weight class, experiencing the tightest overall market conditions with a total vacancy rate of just 5.1%.
A FEEDING FRENZY
What does this mean for the health of the retail investment sales and financing market? Investors have wasted no time hopping back on the retail bandwagon, particularly in core markets where new product often produces a “feeding frenzy.”
In February, Savanna purchased 10 Madison Square West in New York for more than $2,900 per square foot ($60 million). Price appreciation for retail product was outstanding in 2013; the Moody’s/RCA CPPI for retail is expected to post a 23% increase for the year—and reach similar numbers by the end of 2014.
“Right now, it’s all about high-quality, grocery-anchored centers and trophy malls," said Margaret Caldwell, Managing Director, JLL’s Capital Markets. "Demand for those asset types is incredible right now—if only we could convince all the owners to bring those to market. Investment in the gateway cities is strong, as always—but watch for a few dark horses to emerge in the coming months. Markets like Phoenix and Indianapolis could make some real headway by the end of the year.”
In the financing arena, debt is plentiful as balance sheet lenders such as life insurance companies are increasing their allocations in 2014 and remain competitive, while domestic banks continue to report stronger demand for commercial property loans. CMBS money is also plentiful, with retail collateralizing 20 percent of all CMBS deals in the first quarter of 2014.
“Watch for equity to make some significant strides in the retail space in the coming year, as well,” said Mark Brandenburg, Executive Vice President, JLL’s Capital Markets. “For a long time, equity sponsors were holding back, waiting to see if retail would survive the e-commerce invasion. Now that things have settled down a bit, many of those JV equity players are under allocated in the retail space and they’ll need to make some big plays to balance things out.”
Brandenburg also advises investors to keep their eyes on secondary markets as the borrowing rates for primary versus secondary markets don’t vary much.
“Leveraged yields into secondary and tertiary markets will be higher for the same quality real estate due to positive leverage between borrowing rates and cap rates,” he concluded.
About JLL's Retail Group
JLL’s Retail Group serves as the industry’s leader in retail real estate services. The firm’s more than 850 dedicated retail experts in the Americas partner with investors and occupiers around the globe to support and shape investment and site selection strategies.
Its retail specialists provide independent and expert advice to clients, backed by industry-leading research that delivers maximum value throughout the entire lifecycle of an asset or lease. The firm has more than 80 retail brokerage experts spanning 20 major markets, representing more than 100 retail clients. As the largest third party retail property manager in the United States, JLL’s retail portfolio has 305 centers, totaling 65.7 million square feet under management in regional malls, lifestyle centers, grocery-anchored centers, power centers, central business districts, transportation facilities and mixed-use projects.
For more, visit www.jllretail.com.
Related Stories
| Feb 14, 2011
Sustainable Roofing: A Whole-Building Approach
According to sustainability experts, the first step toward designing an energy-efficient roofing system is to see roof materials and systems as an integral component of the enclosure and the building as a whole. Earn 1.0 AIA/CES learning units by studying this article and successfully completing the online exam.
| Feb 11, 2011
Four Products That Stand Up to Hurricanes
What do a panelized wall system, a newly developed roof hatch, spray polyurethane foam, and a custom-made curtain wall have in common? They’ve been extensively researched and tested for their ability to take abuse from the likes of Hurricane Katrina.
| Feb 11, 2011
RS Means Cost Comparison Chart: Office Buildings
This month's RS Means Cost Comparison Chart focuses on office building construction.
| Feb 11, 2011
Sustainable features on the bill for dual-building performing arts center at Soka University of America
The $73 million Soka University of America’s new performing arts center and academic complex recently opened on the school’s Aliso Viejo, Calif., campus. McCarthy Building Companies and Zimmer Gunsul Frasca Architects collaborated on the two-building project. One is a three-story, 47,836-sf facility with a grand reception lobby, a 1,200-seat auditorium, and supports spaces. The other is a four-story, 48,974-sf facility with 11 classrooms, 29 faculty offices, a 150-seat black box theater, rehearsal/dance studio, and support spaces. The project, which has a green roof, solar panels, operable windows, and sun-shading devices, is going for LEED Silver.
| Feb 11, 2011
BIM-enabled Texas church complex can broadcast services in high-def
After two years of design and construction, members of the Gateway Church in Southland, Texas, were able to attend services in their new 4,000-seat facility in late 2010. Located on a 180-acre site, the 205,000-sf complex has six auditoriums, including a massive 200,000-sf Worship Center, complete with catwalks, top-end audio and video system, and high-definition broadcast capabilities. BIM played a significant role in the building’s design and construction. Balfour Beatty Construction and Beck Architecture formed the nucleus of the Building Team.
| Feb 11, 2011
Kentucky’s first green adaptive reuse project earns Platinum
(FER) studio, Inglewood, Calif., converted a 115-year-old former dry goods store in Louisville, Ky., into a 10,175-sf mixed-use commercial building earned LEED Platinum and holds the distinction of being the state’s first adaptive reuse project to earn any LEED rating. The facility, located in the East Market District, houses a gallery, event space, offices, conference space, and a restaurant. Sustainable elements that helped the building reach its top LEED rating include xeriscaping, a green roof, rainwater collection and reuse, 12 geothermal wells, 81 solar panels, a 1,100-gallon ice storage system (off-grid energy efficiency is 68%) and the reuse and recycling of construction materials. Local firm Peters Construction served as GC.
| Feb 11, 2011
Former Richardson Romanesque hotel now houses books, not beds
The Piqua (Ohio) Public Library was once a late 19th-century hotel that sat vacant and deteriorating for years before a $12.3 million adaptive reuse project revitalized the 1891 building. The design team of PSA-Dewberry, MKC Associates, and historic preservation specialist Jeff Wray Associates collaborated on the restoration of the 80,000-sf Richardson Romanesque building, once known as the Fort Piqua Hotel. The team restored a mezzanine above the lobby and repaired historic windows, skylight, massive fireplace, and other historic details. The basement, with its low ceiling and stacked stone walls, was turned into a castle-like children’s center. The Piqua Historical Museum is also located within the building.
| Feb 11, 2011
Justice center on Fall River harbor serves up daylight, sustainable elements, including eucalyptus millwork
Located on historic South Main Street in Fall River, Mass., the Fall River Justice Center opened last fall to serve as the city’s Superior and District Courts building. The $85 million facility was designed by Boston-based Finegold Alexander + Associates Inc., with Dimeo Construction as CM and Arup as MEP. The 154,000-sf courthouse contains nine courtrooms, a law library, and a detention area. Most of the floors have the same ceiling height, which will makes them easier to reconfigure in the future as space needs change. Designed to achieve LEED Silver, the facility’s elliptical design offers abundant natural daylight and views of the harbor. Renewable eucalyptus millwork is one of the sustainable features.
| Feb 11, 2011
Research facility separates but also connects lab spaces
California State University, Northridge, consolidated its graduate and undergraduate biology and mathematics programs into one 90,000-sf research facility. Architect of record Cannon Design worked on the new Chaparral Hall, creating a four-story facility with two distinct spaces that separate research and teaching areas; these are linked by faculty offices to create collaborative spaces. The building houses wet research, teaching, and computational research labs, a 5,000-sf vivarium, classrooms, and administrative offices. A four-story outdoor lobby and plaza and an outdoor staircase provide orientation. A covered walkway links the new facility with the existing science complex. Saiful/Bouquet served as structural engineer, Bard, Rao + Athanas Consulting Engineers served as MEP, and Research Facilities Design was laboratory consultant.
