Video may have killed the radio star, but has e-commerce done the same to your local retail establishment? Will the rise of everything from Amazon to Zappos take down the bookstore up the street, your local shoe store? Don’t bet on it.
While the much-touted demise of good old fashioned, bricks-and-mortar stores makes for good headlines, it’s not actually based in fact.
According to JLL’s Cross Sector Outlook released this spring, despite e-commerce’s leaps and bounds over the last few years, it still represents a relatively small percentage of total retail sales—6.0% to be exact. Your shoe store is safe for now, and probably well into the future.
“Remember catalogs? Flipping through the pages, dialing up a call center and placing an order? Web sales are really just replacing that,” said Kris Cooper, Managing Director, JLL Capital Markets. “People still need to see and touch things; the instant gratification of an in-store purchase can’t be discounted. Retailers who want to thrive will need to incorporate it all—hands-on goods, e-commerce and mobile-commerce.”
Despite these emerging structural challenges and newly-announced store closings, such as those of Radio Shack, Office Depot, and Coldwater Creek, the U.S. retail sector has continued on its solid recovery and is exhibiting tightening market conditions.
Cap rates compressed by approximately 20 basis points in 2013 as rent growth is expected to increase to 2.7% in 2014. Vacancy rates are also expected to compress another 20 basis points by the end of this year.
Right now, power centers, in particular, are punching above their weight class, experiencing the tightest overall market conditions with a total vacancy rate of just 5.1%.
A FEEDING FRENZY
What does this mean for the health of the retail investment sales and financing market? Investors have wasted no time hopping back on the retail bandwagon, particularly in core markets where new product often produces a “feeding frenzy.”
In February, Savanna purchased 10 Madison Square West in New York for more than $2,900 per square foot ($60 million). Price appreciation for retail product was outstanding in 2013; the Moody’s/RCA CPPI for retail is expected to post a 23% increase for the year—and reach similar numbers by the end of 2014.
“Right now, it’s all about high-quality, grocery-anchored centers and trophy malls," said Margaret Caldwell, Managing Director, JLL’s Capital Markets. "Demand for those asset types is incredible right now—if only we could convince all the owners to bring those to market. Investment in the gateway cities is strong, as always—but watch for a few dark horses to emerge in the coming months. Markets like Phoenix and Indianapolis could make some real headway by the end of the year.”
In the financing arena, debt is plentiful as balance sheet lenders such as life insurance companies are increasing their allocations in 2014 and remain competitive, while domestic banks continue to report stronger demand for commercial property loans. CMBS money is also plentiful, with retail collateralizing 20 percent of all CMBS deals in the first quarter of 2014.
“Watch for equity to make some significant strides in the retail space in the coming year, as well,” said Mark Brandenburg, Executive Vice President, JLL’s Capital Markets. “For a long time, equity sponsors were holding back, waiting to see if retail would survive the e-commerce invasion. Now that things have settled down a bit, many of those JV equity players are under allocated in the retail space and they’ll need to make some big plays to balance things out.”
Brandenburg also advises investors to keep their eyes on secondary markets as the borrowing rates for primary versus secondary markets don’t vary much.
“Leveraged yields into secondary and tertiary markets will be higher for the same quality real estate due to positive leverage between borrowing rates and cap rates,” he concluded.
About JLL's Retail Group
JLL’s Retail Group serves as the industry’s leader in retail real estate services. The firm’s more than 850 dedicated retail experts in the Americas partner with investors and occupiers around the globe to support and shape investment and site selection strategies.
Its retail specialists provide independent and expert advice to clients, backed by industry-leading research that delivers maximum value throughout the entire lifecycle of an asset or lease. The firm has more than 80 retail brokerage experts spanning 20 major markets, representing more than 100 retail clients. As the largest third party retail property manager in the United States, JLL’s retail portfolio has 305 centers, totaling 65.7 million square feet under management in regional malls, lifestyle centers, grocery-anchored centers, power centers, central business districts, transportation facilities and mixed-use projects.
For more, visit www.jllretail.com.
Related Stories
Office Buildings | Jul 22, 2024
U.S. commercial foreclosures increased 48% in June from last year
The commercial building sector continues to be under financial pressure as foreclosures nationwide increased 48% in June compared to June 2023, according to ATTOM, a real estate data analysis firm.
Codes and Standards | Jul 22, 2024
Tennessee developers can now hire their own building safety inspectors
A new law in Tennessee allows developers to hire their own building inspectors to check for environmental, safety, and construction violations. The law is intended to streamline the building process, particularly in rapidly growing communities.
Codes and Standards | Jul 22, 2024
New FEMA rules include climate change impacts
FEMA’s new rules governing rebuilding after disasters will take into account the impacts of climate change on future flood risk. For decades, the agency has followed a 100-year floodplain standard—an area that has a 1% chance of flooding in a given year.
Construction Costs | Jul 18, 2024
Data center construction costs for 2024
Gordian’s data features more than 100 building models, including computer data centers. These localized models allow architects, engineers, and other preconstruction professionals to quickly and accurately create conceptual estimates for future builds. This table shows a five-year view of costs per square foot for one-story computer data centers.
Sustainability | Jul 18, 2024
Grimshaw launches free online tool to help accelerate decarbonization of buildings
Minoro, an online platform to help accelerate the decarbonization of buildings, was recently launched by architecture firm Grimshaw, in collaboration with more than 20 supporting organizations including World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD), RIBA, Architecture 2030, the World Green Building Council (WorldGBC) and several national Green Building Councils from across the globe.
University Buildings | Jul 17, 2024
University of Louisville Student Success Building will be new heart of engineering program
A new Student Success Building will serve as the heart of the newly designed University of Louisville’s J.B. Speed School of Engineering. The 115,000-sf structure will greatly increase lab space and consolidate student services to one location.
Healthcare Facilities | Jul 16, 2024
Watch on-demand: Key Trends in the Healthcare Facilities Market for 2024-2025
Join the Building Design+Construction editorial team for this on-demand webinar on key trends, innovations, and opportunities in the $65 billion U.S. healthcare buildings market. A panel of healthcare design and construction experts present their latest projects, trends, innovations, opportunities, and data/research on key healthcare facilities sub-sectors. A 2024-2025 U.S. healthcare facilities market outlook is also presented.
K-12 Schools | Jul 15, 2024
A Cleveland suburb opens a $31.7 million new middle school and renovated high school
Accommodating 1,283 students in grades 6-12, the Warrensville, Ohio school complex features flexible learning environments and offers programs ranging from culinary arts and firefighting training to e-sports.
MFPRO+ News | Jul 15, 2024
More permits for ADUs than single-family homes issued in San Diego
Popularity of granny flats growing in California
Codes and Standards | Jul 15, 2024
New York City code update changes definition of a major building
Changes affecting how construction projects in New York City are permitted will have significant impacts for contractors. On Dec. 11, the definition of a major building in the city’s code will change from 10 stories to seven, or 75 feet. The change will affect thousands more projects.