Video may have killed the radio star, but has e-commerce done the same to your local retail establishment? Will the rise of everything from Amazon to Zappos take down the bookstore up the street, your local shoe store? Don’t bet on it.
While the much-touted demise of good old fashioned, bricks-and-mortar stores makes for good headlines, it’s not actually based in fact.
According to JLL’s Cross Sector Outlook released this spring, despite e-commerce’s leaps and bounds over the last few years, it still represents a relatively small percentage of total retail sales—6.0% to be exact. Your shoe store is safe for now, and probably well into the future.
“Remember catalogs? Flipping through the pages, dialing up a call center and placing an order? Web sales are really just replacing that,” said Kris Cooper, Managing Director, JLL Capital Markets. “People still need to see and touch things; the instant gratification of an in-store purchase can’t be discounted. Retailers who want to thrive will need to incorporate it all—hands-on goods, e-commerce and mobile-commerce.”
Despite these emerging structural challenges and newly-announced store closings, such as those of Radio Shack, Office Depot, and Coldwater Creek, the U.S. retail sector has continued on its solid recovery and is exhibiting tightening market conditions.
Cap rates compressed by approximately 20 basis points in 2013 as rent growth is expected to increase to 2.7% in 2014. Vacancy rates are also expected to compress another 20 basis points by the end of this year.
Right now, power centers, in particular, are punching above their weight class, experiencing the tightest overall market conditions with a total vacancy rate of just 5.1%.
A FEEDING FRENZY
What does this mean for the health of the retail investment sales and financing market? Investors have wasted no time hopping back on the retail bandwagon, particularly in core markets where new product often produces a “feeding frenzy.”
In February, Savanna purchased 10 Madison Square West in New York for more than $2,900 per square foot ($60 million). Price appreciation for retail product was outstanding in 2013; the Moody’s/RCA CPPI for retail is expected to post a 23% increase for the year—and reach similar numbers by the end of 2014.
“Right now, it’s all about high-quality, grocery-anchored centers and trophy malls," said Margaret Caldwell, Managing Director, JLL’s Capital Markets. "Demand for those asset types is incredible right now—if only we could convince all the owners to bring those to market. Investment in the gateway cities is strong, as always—but watch for a few dark horses to emerge in the coming months. Markets like Phoenix and Indianapolis could make some real headway by the end of the year.”
In the financing arena, debt is plentiful as balance sheet lenders such as life insurance companies are increasing their allocations in 2014 and remain competitive, while domestic banks continue to report stronger demand for commercial property loans. CMBS money is also plentiful, with retail collateralizing 20 percent of all CMBS deals in the first quarter of 2014.
“Watch for equity to make some significant strides in the retail space in the coming year, as well,” said Mark Brandenburg, Executive Vice President, JLL’s Capital Markets. “For a long time, equity sponsors were holding back, waiting to see if retail would survive the e-commerce invasion. Now that things have settled down a bit, many of those JV equity players are under allocated in the retail space and they’ll need to make some big plays to balance things out.”
Brandenburg also advises investors to keep their eyes on secondary markets as the borrowing rates for primary versus secondary markets don’t vary much.
“Leveraged yields into secondary and tertiary markets will be higher for the same quality real estate due to positive leverage between borrowing rates and cap rates,” he concluded.
About JLL's Retail Group
JLL’s Retail Group serves as the industry’s leader in retail real estate services. The firm’s more than 850 dedicated retail experts in the Americas partner with investors and occupiers around the globe to support and shape investment and site selection strategies.
Its retail specialists provide independent and expert advice to clients, backed by industry-leading research that delivers maximum value throughout the entire lifecycle of an asset or lease. The firm has more than 80 retail brokerage experts spanning 20 major markets, representing more than 100 retail clients. As the largest third party retail property manager in the United States, JLL’s retail portfolio has 305 centers, totaling 65.7 million square feet under management in regional malls, lifestyle centers, grocery-anchored centers, power centers, central business districts, transportation facilities and mixed-use projects.
For more, visit www.jllretail.com.
Related Stories
Architects | Mar 11, 2016
German artist recreates Brutalist buildings with LEGO blocks
Arndt Schlaudraff brings the beauty out of the rugged, linear style of buildings most popular a half century ago.
Architects | Mar 11, 2016
Architecture for Humanity rebrands itself as Open Architecture Collaborative
With a new name, logo, and mission, the Open Architecture Collaborative is seeking a fresh start.
Architects | Mar 11, 2016
AIA survey finds many women and minority architects still feeling underrepresented and unfulfilled
Dissatisfaction with “work-life balance” and compensation are cited as reasons why companies’ diversity strategies may be faltering.
University Buildings | Mar 11, 2016
How architects can help community colleges promote community on campus
Even in the face of funding challenges and historic precedent, there are emerging examples of how partnership between two-year academic institutions and designers can further elevate community on campus. CannonDesign's Carisima Koenig has a few key examples.
Architects | Mar 10, 2016
Value engineering: How to manage the process and limit the risk of VE
AEC consultant Steve Whitehorn shares several ways in which architects can be more effective managers of value-engineered change.
Architects | Mar 9, 2016
Two Houston firms merge to form Method Architecture
In mid-2016, Architects-Plus and Three Square Design Group will join to make a studio that will design industrial centers, corporate interiors, breweries, and more.
Hotel Facilities | Mar 7, 2016
Exclusive villas and spa in China will be built at the center of a lake
The only connection between the complex and the mainland will be a narrow pedestrian bridge.
Office Buildings | Mar 2, 2016
HDR redesigns Twin Cities' studio to have coffee shop vibe
With open spaces, huddle rooms, and a design lab, the firm's new digs are drastically different than the old studio, which felt like working in a law office. Design Principal Mike Rodriguez highlights HDR's renovation plan.
Architects | Feb 25, 2016
12 architects selected for 2016 AIA Young Architects Award
Winners include Amy Kalar and Karen Lu, both with HGA, BNIM's Carey Nagle, and MSR Design's Bob Ganser.
Architects | Feb 24, 2016
Is the booming freelance economy a threat to AEC firms?
By shifting the work (and revenue) to freelancers, “platform capitalism” startups have taken considerable market share from traditional businesses.