Following modest increases in construction spending for nonresidential buildings in 2019, economists from eight leading industry organizations forecast slight growth in 2020 and 2021—1.5% and 0.9%, according to AIA's latest Consensus Construction Forecast panel.
Public safety, education, healthcare, and office are the bright spots in a market that is entering growth-slowdown mode. However, no downturn is projected by the economists.
The public safety sector is expected to grow 7.2% in 2020, followed by education (3.9%), healthcare (3.4%), and office (3.0%). Four sectors—hotels, religious facilities, amusement/recreation, and retail—will take a step back in construction spending in 2020, according to the report.
More from the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast:
Construction spending last year was surprisingly weak, but current estimates suggest the industry had a modest increase in 2019. Retail construction activity was expected to underperform in 2019 but did not see the double-digit percentage declines that were expected. The AIA’s Consensus Construction forecast panel expects similar conditions this year and next.
“The broader economy is expected to continue to see slower growth this year, but the number of potential trouble spots seems to be diminishing,” said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker, Hon. AIA, PhD. “Revenue trends at architecture firms saw an uptick in the fourth quarter last year, which suggests construction spending will continue to see growth in the coming quarters.”
Related Stories
AEC Tech | Jan 16, 2020
EC firms with a clear ‘digital roadmap’ should excel in 2020
Deloitte, in new report, lays out a risk mitigation strategy that relies on tech.
Market Data | Jan 13, 2020
Construction employment increases by 20,000 in December and 151,000 in 2019
Survey finds optimism about 2020 along with even tighter labor supply as construction unemployment sets record December low.
Market Data | Jan 10, 2020
North America’s office market should enjoy continued expansion in 2020
Brokers and analysts at two major CRE firms observe that tenants are taking longer to make lease decisions.
Market Data | Dec 17, 2019
Architecture Billings Index continues to show modest growth
AIA’s Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score of 51.9 for November reflects an increase in design services provided by U.S. architecture firms.
Market Data | Dec 12, 2019
2019 sets new record for supertall building completion
Overall, the number of completed buildings of at least 200 meters in 2019 declined by 13.7%.
Market Data | Dec 4, 2019
Nonresidential construction spending falls in October
Private nonresidential spending fell 1.2% on a monthly basis and is down 4.3% from October 2018.
Market Data | Nov 25, 2019
Office construction lifts U.S. asking rental rate, but slowing absorption in Q3 raises concerns
12-month net absorption decelerates by one-third from 2018 total.
Market Data | Nov 22, 2019
Architecture Billings Index rebounds after two down months
The Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score in October is 52.0.
Market Data | Nov 14, 2019
Construction input prices unchanged in October
Nonresidential construction input prices fell 0.1% for the month and are down 2.0% compared to the same time last year.
Multifamily Housing | Nov 7, 2019
Multifamily construction market remains strong heading into 2020
Fewer than one in 10 AEC firms doing multifamily work reported a decrease in proposal activity in Q3 2019, according to a PSMJ report.
