Following modest increases in construction spending for nonresidential buildings in 2019, economists from eight leading industry organizations forecast slight growth in 2020 and 2021—1.5% and 0.9%, according to AIA's latest Consensus Construction Forecast panel.
Public safety, education, healthcare, and office are the bright spots in a market that is entering growth-slowdown mode. However, no downturn is projected by the economists.
The public safety sector is expected to grow 7.2% in 2020, followed by education (3.9%), healthcare (3.4%), and office (3.0%). Four sectors—hotels, religious facilities, amusement/recreation, and retail—will take a step back in construction spending in 2020, according to the report.
More from the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast:
Construction spending last year was surprisingly weak, but current estimates suggest the industry had a modest increase in 2019. Retail construction activity was expected to underperform in 2019 but did not see the double-digit percentage declines that were expected. The AIA’s Consensus Construction forecast panel expects similar conditions this year and next.
“The broader economy is expected to continue to see slower growth this year, but the number of potential trouble spots seems to be diminishing,” said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker, Hon. AIA, PhD. “Revenue trends at architecture firms saw an uptick in the fourth quarter last year, which suggests construction spending will continue to see growth in the coming quarters.”
Related Stories
Market Data | Nov 9, 2021
Continued increases in construction materials prices starting to drive up price of construction projects
Supply chain and labor woes continue.
Market Data | Nov 5, 2021
Construction firms add 44,000 jobs in October
Gain occurs even as firms struggle with supply chain challenges.
Market Data | Nov 3, 2021
One-fifth of metro areas lost construction jobs between September 2020 and 2021
Beaumont-Port Arthur, Texas and Sacramento--Roseville--Arden-Arcade Calif. top lists of gainers.
Market Data | Nov 2, 2021
Construction spending slumps in September
A drop in residential work projects adds to ongoing downturn in private and public nonresidential.
Hotel Facilities | Oct 28, 2021
Marriott leads with the largest U.S. hotel construction pipeline at Q3 2021 close
In the third quarter alone, Marriott opened 60 new hotels/7,882 rooms accounting for 30% of all new hotel rooms that opened in the U.S.
Hotel Facilities | Oct 28, 2021
At the end of Q3 2021, Dallas tops the U.S. hotel construction pipeline
The top 25 U.S. markets account for 33% of all pipeline projects and 37% of all rooms in the U.S. hotel construction pipeline.
Market Data | Oct 27, 2021
Only 14 states and D.C. added construction jobs since the pandemic began
Supply problems, lack of infrastructure bill undermine recovery.
Market Data | Oct 26, 2021
U.S. construction pipeline experiences highs and lows in the third quarter
Renovation and conversion pipeline activity remains steady at the end of Q3 ‘21, with conversion projects hitting a cyclical peak, and ending the quarter at 752 projects/79,024 rooms.
Market Data | Oct 19, 2021
Demand for design services continues to increase
The Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score for September was 56.6.
Market Data | Oct 14, 2021
Climate-related risk could be a major headwind for real estate investment
A new trends report from PwC and ULI picks Nashville as the top metro for CRE prospects.