They’re all “world middleweight cities” that are likely to become regional megacities (10 million people) by 2025—along with Dongguan, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin, and Wuhan (China); Kinshasa (Democratic Republic of the Congo); Jakarta (Indonesia); Lahore (Pakistan); and Chennai (India).
These “emerging middleweight” cities are among the “City 600,” the top 600 cities by contribution to global GDP growth from 2007 to 2005, as defined in a new report from McKinsey Global Institute: “Urban World: Mapping the economic power of cities”.
The 1.5 billion people who live in the City 600 (22% of world population) accounted for $30 trillion of GDP in 2007—more than half of global GDP. The top 100 alone generated $21 trillion, 38% of global GDP, according to McKinsey.
By 2025, these 600 cities will be home to 2.0 billion, a quarter of the world’s population, and account for $64 trillion, or 60% of global GDP.
The top 25 “hot spots” for GDP by 2025 include (in rank order) New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Dallas, Washington, D.C., Houston, Philadelphia, Boston, and San Francisco, along with such places as São Paolo (Brazil), Rhein-Ruhr (Germany), Mexico City, Randstad (Netherlands), Shanghai, Beijing, and Hong Kong.
Other key findings of the McKinsey study:
• By 2025, the makeup of the City 600 will change as the center of gravity of the urban world moves south and east. One-third of developed market cities will no longer make the top 600.
• By 2025, up to 136 new cities will enter the City 600 list, all of them from the developing world—100 of them from China alone, including Haerbin, Shantou, and Guiyang.
• India will contribute 13 newcomers to the City 600 list, including Hyderabad and Surat. Latin America will add eight, notably Cancún (Mexico) and Barranquilla (Colombia).
• About 310 million more people of working-age population will live in the City 600 by 2025—almost 35% of the expansion of the global workforce, almost all of it in emerging markets and two-thirds in China and South Asia.
What do all these fascinating data points mean to the design and construction industry, and to you as an AEC professional? In a nutshell, the McKinsey people are saying, If you want to grow your business—and your career—over the next 15 years, you must look to foreign climes.
It is in the emerging cities that GDP will be growing at a faster rate than global GDP. Where the workforce will be expanding more quickly than in the rest of the world. Where demand for housing, retail shops, schools, libraries, museums, data centers, universities, office buildings, religious centers—all the magnificent structures you and your firms create and build—will be accelerating at a hyperfast rate compared to the growth, if any, in much of the developed world.
To be competitive in the coming decade and a half, AEC firms and professionals are going to have to shift their lines of sight eastward and southerly, to places with names like Luanda, Chongqing, Dhaka, Colombo, and Grande Vitória.
Related Stories
| Sep 23, 2022
Central offices making a comeback after pandemic
In the early stages of the Covid pandemic, commercial real estate industry experts predicted that businesses would increasingly move toward a hub-and-spoke office model.
| Sep 22, 2022
Gainesville, Fla., ordinance requires Home Energy Score during rental inspections
The city of Gainesville, Florida was recently recognized by the U.S. Dept. of Energy for an adopted ordinance that requires rental housing to receive a Home Energy Score during rental inspections.
| Sep 21, 2022
New California law creates incentive for installing outdoor dining safety barriers
A new California law provides an incentive for commercial property owners to install barriers to protect outdoor diners.
| Sep 21, 2022
Demand for design services accelerates
Demand for design services from U.S. architecture firms grew at an accelerated pace in August, according to a new report today from The American Institute of Architects (AIA).
K-12 Schools | Sep 21, 2022
Architecture that invites everyone to dance
If “diversity” is being invited to the party in education facilities, “inclusivity” is being asked to dance, writes Emily Pierson-Brown, People Culture Manager with Perkins Eastman.
| Sep 20, 2022
NIBS develops implementation plan for digital transformation of built environment
The National Institute of Building Sciences (NIBS) says it has developed an implementation and launch plan for a sweeping digital transformation of the built environment.
| Sep 20, 2022
New Long Beach office building reflects Mid-Century Modern garden-style motif
The new Long Beach, Calif., headquarters of Laserfiche, a provider of intelligent content management and business process automation software, was built on a brownfield parcel previously considered undevelopable.
| Sep 19, 2022
New York City construction site inspections, enforcement found ‘inadequate’
A new report by the New York State Comptroller found that New York City construction site inspections and regulation enforcement need improvement.
| Sep 16, 2022
Fairfax County, Va., considers impactful code change to reduce flood risk
Fairfax County, Va., in the Washington, D.C., metro region is considering a major code change to reduce the risk from floods.
Multifamily Housing | Sep 15, 2022
Heat Pumps in Multifamily Projects
RMI's Lacey Tan gives the basics of heat pumps and how they can reduce energy costs and carbon emissions in apartment projects.