They’re all “world middleweight cities” that are likely to become regional megacities (10 million people) by 2025—along with Dongguan, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin, and Wuhan (China); Kinshasa (Democratic Republic of the Congo); Jakarta (Indonesia); Lahore (Pakistan); and Chennai (India).
These “emerging middleweight” cities are among the “City 600,” the top 600 cities by contribution to global GDP growth from 2007 to 2005, as defined in a new report from McKinsey Global Institute: “Urban World: Mapping the economic power of cities”.
The 1.5 billion people who live in the City 600 (22% of world population) accounted for $30 trillion of GDP in 2007—more than half of global GDP. The top 100 alone generated $21 trillion, 38% of global GDP, according to McKinsey.
By 2025, these 600 cities will be home to 2.0 billion, a quarter of the world’s population, and account for $64 trillion, or 60% of global GDP.
The top 25 “hot spots” for GDP by 2025 include (in rank order) New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Dallas, Washington, D.C., Houston, Philadelphia, Boston, and San Francisco, along with such places as São Paolo (Brazil), Rhein-Ruhr (Germany), Mexico City, Randstad (Netherlands), Shanghai, Beijing, and Hong Kong.
Other key findings of the McKinsey study:
• By 2025, the makeup of the City 600 will change as the center of gravity of the urban world moves south and east. One-third of developed market cities will no longer make the top 600.
• By 2025, up to 136 new cities will enter the City 600 list, all of them from the developing world—100 of them from China alone, including Haerbin, Shantou, and Guiyang.
• India will contribute 13 newcomers to the City 600 list, including Hyderabad and Surat. Latin America will add eight, notably Cancún (Mexico) and Barranquilla (Colombia).
• About 310 million more people of working-age population will live in the City 600 by 2025—almost 35% of the expansion of the global workforce, almost all of it in emerging markets and two-thirds in China and South Asia.
What do all these fascinating data points mean to the design and construction industry, and to you as an AEC professional? In a nutshell, the McKinsey people are saying, If you want to grow your business—and your career—over the next 15 years, you must look to foreign climes.
It is in the emerging cities that GDP will be growing at a faster rate than global GDP. Where the workforce will be expanding more quickly than in the rest of the world. Where demand for housing, retail shops, schools, libraries, museums, data centers, universities, office buildings, religious centers—all the magnificent structures you and your firms create and build—will be accelerating at a hyperfast rate compared to the growth, if any, in much of the developed world.
To be competitive in the coming decade and a half, AEC firms and professionals are going to have to shift their lines of sight eastward and southerly, to places with names like Luanda, Chongqing, Dhaka, Colombo, and Grande Vitória.
Related Stories
Multifamily Housing | Feb 2, 2023
St. Louis’s first transit-oriented multifamily development opens in historic Skinker DeBaliviere neighborhood
St. Louis’s first major transit-oriented, multi-family development recently opened with 287 apartments available for rent. The $71 million Expo at Forest Park project includes a network of pathways to accommodate many modes of transportation including ride share, the region’s Metro Transit system, a trolley line, pedestrian traffic, automobiles, and bike traffic on the 7-mile St. Vincent Greenway Trail.
Giants 400 | Feb 2, 2023
2022 Convention Center Sector Giants: Top architecture, engineering, and construction firms in the U.S. convention and conference facilities sector
Clark Group, EUA, KPFF, Populous, TVS, and Walter P Moore top BD+C's rankings of the nation's largest convention and conference facilities architecture, engineering, and construction firms, as reported in the 2022 Giants 400 Report.
Multifamily Housing | Feb 1, 2023
Step(1) housing: A new approach to sheltering unhoused people in Redwood City, Calif.
A novel solution to homelessness will open soon in Redwood City, Calif. The compact residential campus employs modular units to create individual sleeping units, most with private bathrooms. The 240 units of housing will be accompanied by shared services and community spaces. Instead of the congregate dorm-style shelters found in many U.S. cities, this approach gives each resident a private, lockable, conditioned sleeping space.
Codes and Standards | Feb 1, 2023
New Jersey to allow private firms to conduct construction inspections
New Jersey recently passed a law that will allow towns to supplement construction code enforcement with help from the private sector. The legislation, which received bipartisan support, also allows municipalities to enter into shared service agreements with neighboring towns for construction inspections.
Sports and Recreational Facilities | Feb 1, 2023
University of Houston opens 'game changer' wellness center at downtown campus
The University of Houston-Downtown (UHD) recently opened its new Wellness & Success Center (WSC). The $39 million, 75,000 sf facility greatly improves the quality of the school’s exercise programs and areas dedicated to them. It also establishes a dynamic core and recognizable landmark for fostering and nurturing an on-campus community, according to a news release from SmithGroup, which designed the building along with HarrisonKornberg Architects.
Giants 400 | Feb 1, 2023
2022 Cultural Facilities Giants: Top architecture, engineering, and construction firms in the U.S. cultural facilities sector
Populous, DLR Group, KPFF, Arup, and Turner Construction head BD+C's rankings of the nation's largest cultural facilities sector architecture, engineering, and construction firms, as reported in the 2022 Giants 400 Report. Building types include museums, public libraries, performing arts centers, and concert venues.
Giants 400 | Jan 31, 2023
2022 Retail Giants: Top architecture, engineering, and construction firms in the U.S. retail building sector
Gensler, CallisonRTKL, Kimley-Horn, Henderson Engineers, Whiting-Turner Contracting, and Turner Construction top BD+C's rankings of the nation's largest retail sector architecture, engineering, and construction firms, as reported in the 2022 Giants 400 Report.
Giants 400 | Jan 31, 2023
2022 Government Sector Giants: Top architecture, engineering, and construction firms in the U.S. government buildings sector
Gensler, Jacobs, Hensel Phelps, and Page top BD+C's rankings of the nation's largest government sector architecture, engineering, and construction firms, as reported in the 2022 Giants 400 Report.
Healthcare Facilities | Jan 31, 2023
How to solve humidity issues in hospitals and healthcare facilities
Humidity control is one of the top mechanical issues healthcare clients face. SSR's Lee Nordholm, PE, LEED AP, offers tips for handling humidity issues in hospitals and healthcare facilities.
University Buildings | Jan 30, 2023
How wellness is reshaping college recreation centers
Moody Nolan, a specialist in the design of college recreation centers, has participated in the evolution toward wellness on college campuses.